lol being surprised Desmond's ADP was not "1st rd or early 2nd"

laugh at me now. we'll see who's laughing in september

Not laughing that you think he will have increased production in COL etc, that's not some amazing prognostication. I just think you massively over estimated his ADP. IIRC, you said you would take him in late 3rd-4th...and I'm possibly with you there.

Thanks guys, I'll utilize that strategy with the starters.

Anyone else have any thoughts on the punting saves and just getting the cheap holds guys?

not possible

13 hitters had at least 100 at bats in coors last year and only 4 of them didn't hit at least .310. only 2 (hundley and rayburn) hit worse than .277. i mean mark reynolds hit .310, story hit .313

even if desmond hits .240 or so on the road (which i wouldn't rule out) he's plenty good enough to be part of the 9/13 who hit .310+ at coors

https://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1/proleagues

Pro leagues up!

I would once again like to thank DFS (and our dumb laws and the politicians that set them) for bringing attention to fantasy baseball such that FL is a restricted state for a season-long context.

http://www.fantrax.com/fantasy/draft...pe=LIVE_ONLINE

http://www.fantrax.com/fantasy/draft...pe=LIVE_ONLINE

2 more mocks going on tonight (2nd has started yet obviously)

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ers=0&sort=5,d

i sorted by k/bb in the 2nd half cuz i was looking at archer's numbers in the 2nd half and was wowed by just how sick he was and decided to look at that specifically just to see who heated up in the 2nd half and may be UTR in the draft

some food for thought:

1. ivan nova deserves your attention. he's like a much better bartolo colon and nothing he did with the pirates is particularly out of line or unsustainable. if anything he has room to get better
2. i had no idea just how good porcello and verlander were running. i mean i knew they were running well but damn
3. whatever you do don't forget either of taillon or manaea
4. eduardo rodriguez got much much better
5. i got pineda moore and ray as the 3 most tantalizing pitchers who are going to cause me the most frustration

We talked last year about Nova->PIT since PIT seems to refresh SP's, good fit.
Think Porcello definitely ran good, no way he gets that again. JV likely too, but he's been an ace, had a rough year-2 stretch from injuries, and is bouncing back now (but 34 now, ugh)
Definitely likely Taillon/Manaea (there's so much good young upside SP late)
Rodriguez likely isn't going to make the rotation sadly
I refuse to take Pineda, Moore/Ray sure

Also refusing to take Sale this year, I fear the move to Boston and the way he finished worries me too much with so many other good SP near him

I like Archer to rebound a lot. Problem is so does seemingly everyone else, he's already the #13 SP coming off per NFBC. Not much of a discount.

Moore I like too.

Pineda .. ugh. I mean, 11 times giving up 5+ ER last year (fun fact - that was 2nd in MLB, not paying Baseball Reference to find out who was first with 12). I don't think its even something where you can steam him as the opponent or home/road doesn't seem to matter for anything. If you want some variance/upside I get it but he pretty much killed my season last year in a league and I am not sure how much more I can take

12 team auction, 6 keepers.
$300 budget

Would you keep either of Bumgarner $39 or Scherzer $36? Fwiw Kershaw went $44 last year and guys like Carrasco, Price, Sale, Lester, Strasburg all went for between $30 and $36. Other options are Duffy or Porcelli both at $5, but I really want to lock in an ace. Worried guys might go over 40 in the auction.

My other keepers are
Harper 38
Lindor 10
Votto 24
Dahl 5
And either Miggy 49 or Rendon 24.

Think I'd go Scherzer and porcello and replace miggy

What would you rather have?

Scherzer, porcello, and $44

Or

Scherzer and miggy

ya i posted that before i looked at rankings and was surprised to see archer as the 15th ranked SP on yahoo. granted, there's 3 ahead of him i'd probably take archer over but seeing him that high was a bit of a shock to me. i do get the sense his ADP is going to be below his o-rank though as he definitely seems like a guy who people in 50s will try yo fade

miggy at 49 seems like a terrible keep

scherzer at 36 is a much easier keep than madbum at 39

i'm gonna advocate for duffy til i'm blue in the face

he ran out of steam last year and got lit up in the end. fastball velocity dropped under 94 in september, control waned, he was getting teed the **** off in his last 6 starts and he threw by far the most innings of his career

i'm very confident rolling him out next year

Couple more people to not forget about

1. Ryon Healy
2. Chad Green

Love Healy, think he's the 3B I get if I want to wait, such good upside.
Green is meh for me, there's tons of different young SP late, don't think he's draftable.

Torn on Duffy, think there's other SP's around where he's getting grabbed I'd rather have (but he's a solid pick there), and with the loss of Dyson, I fear their fielding might drop off with an aging Gordon/Cain in LF/CF, and Soler I believe isn't a great fielder (could be wrong?)

He's definitely not draftable in the sense that he won't have an ADP but I'm for sure going with my michael Saunders strategy of 'nobody is going to draft him but I will in the final round'

Whiff rate and a 4 pitch pitcher with a 95 mph fastball with decent control

As a rule of thumb when someone has a k/9 of 11 as a starter and an ADP (if it even exists) over 250, even if it's only 40 innings, you should take notice. Especially when consistent with a high strikeout minor league career

Yeah, just wonder if Bundy in the last round has more upside

You guys are probably right that Miggy is too expensive.
Porcello and Duffy are really close for me and I can see arguments for both.

Flip a coin of them and use the $44 to draft a miggy caliber bat

I'd keep your four, Duffy at $5 and Scherzer at $36. Scherzer isn't super great value but cost certainty counts for something. I think Duffy is pretty legit and at $5 if he's not or he misses time its not really hurting you.

I'd suspect Miggy, Rendon and Bumgarner are all $5-$10 overpriced. I'd keep Porcello at $5 before any of them personally

Bundy is the #72 SP per NFBC right now. If he has decent success in spring unfortunately I think that he moves up a few rounds pretty easy

(Green is #136 with an ADP over 500 right now FWIW .. I'm a little intrigued)

I really like springer this year, think he's gonna finally breakout