Andres Blanco is my hero

not sure why, tbh. i'm new to mlb dfs, and was hoping for a good group this year. been slow thus far.

I'm game to share thoughts on potential values if others are.

Guys I'm particularly liking tonight on DK for multipliers and double ups:

* Gio - Strong run, facing the Philols.
* Wright - Because Atlanta.
* Berrios - Weather is favourable, with pitch count my only real concern but mostly accounted for in pricing.
* Wieters - $2700, switch vs lefty with good splits.
* Ortiz - Facing Bud Norris with good wind. Did I mention Bud Norris?
* Andrus - Strong splits vs lefties and lolCC.
* Pittsburgh outfielders in Coors.

BvP tiebreaker: I know Longoria isn't quite Longoria any more, but Chris Tillman is still Chris Tillman and 7 HRs in 51 career ABs raised an eyebrow. Grabbing Longo in lineups where I can't afford Beltre/Donaldson.

Well, I tried.

Red Sox stacks looking good. Ortiz with 3 2Bs already.

Let's see how many times I can fall for Coghlan

Did I mention Bud Norris was pitching?

Had a nice BOS stack, but no Pedroia.

Also, coupled BOS + TEX so I need some Rangers production.

26th in the $5 Playboy Q tonight
So close, yet so far lol

today should be fun. I like seeing Gary Wise write out his thought process. This afternoon has rain in almost every game. I think the play is to stack the Brewers and hope Arrietta comes out after 1 inning and they mash. At least that will be my strategy today.

OK then, a stab at a few I like in the early going, rain ignored beyond batting conditions. Again, DK multis and doubles. I'll do these a little more if they inspire debate/constructive criticism:

* While he's not going to put up stellar numbers, anyone with Juan Nicasio's K% is going to be a solid value at $4500 if you want to absolutely load up elsewhere. or just pair someone with JoFer/Arrieta.
* I like Lucroy for the simple fact that he has a pulse, bats 4th and costs $2700. Also has historically had reverse splits.
* Coco Crisp has seemed consistently low-priced to me. Today he has Anibel (who he hit even when Anibel was good), who has been incredibly volatile. He hits righties pretty well too.

Notes:

* Harper's career vs Aaron Nola: 5 for 7 with 2 HR. Normally, this would be a good thing, but with the way the Phils have approached him (5 walks in 2 games), I wouldn't expect a whole lot of "hittable pitches"
* The Rockies bullpen has to be exhausted right now (and to a lesser extent, the Pirates'). Could provide an invisible uptick for starter-based projection systems.
* The projections I'm using hate Rubby de la Rosa. Cardinals stack?

PIT @ COL PPD

Lucroy does not have a reverse split.

I based that on his wOBA and wRC being better vs righties than lefties in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016 (substantially in the latter two). How are you defining it?

MLB newbie here. I've only played GPPs. Is it stupid to roster Betts, Ortiz, and Bradley with no one between them tonight? Splitting Maeda and Buchholz shares on FanDuel and in a spot where I like Papi best, see low ownership for Mookie and a good enough price on Bradley. I can go from Bradley to Kiké or Papi to Moss to get Shaw in (currently looking Carpenter who I love) to stay at four BoSox. Considering just scrapping Clay lineups altogether though. I just don't love Xander/Pedroia tonight.

We need a H2H challenge button on Yahoo ASAP. Some Rockies players were still upwards of 4-5% of lineups in my early double-up.

Career splits for Lucroy:

vs L as R / 0.362 wOBA / 126 WRC+ / 669 PAs

vs R as R / 0.328 wOBA / 104 WRC+ / 2165 PAs

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/split/

So if you are only basing it on 2014-2016, it's only 277 PAs vs LHP and 866 PAs vs RHP. I'm not saying he doesn't have a reverse split either; it's just that any reasonable way to model it would have a standard split as a huge favorite. Even if we give extreme preference to recency, it's still going to pull him back to the mean if we use Bayesian techniques because there are so few PAs in recent years, especially vs LHP.

Suppose that's fair. I was giving a pretty extreme preference to recency, but didn't realize splits required such large samples to stabilize. Still think the point of Lucroy being solid vs righties holds though; feel like his pricing was punishing him more for the righty on righty matchup (Granted, only after punishing him for Arrieta) than his results warranted.

Should add I appreciate that feedback, Lawnmower. Constructive stuff.

NP. The general takeaway is you should be very skeptical of reverse splits for hitters and less skeptical for pitchers. Tonight, Wacha has a pretty substantial reverse with over 700 batters faced per side. He'll face Chris Owings, who also shows a reverse but has < 250 PAs vs LHP (and < 800 vs RHP). I think there are very few guys with enough PAs to have a lot of confidence in a true reverse. A few I can think of (ARod, EE, ...) are so close to even that I really wouldn't even call it a reverse because I doubt the difference is statistically significant.

Three things I recommend: (1) Buy a copy of The Book by Dolphin, Lichtman, and Tango, (2) read through all of last year's thread where we already discussed a lot of this stuff in depth, and (3) stop using BvP.

Such a dumb night. Was in line to win quite a bit of loot and then I swapped Machado for Carp and the rest of the Cards pooped the bed.

I feel your pain . I was in line for 50k saturday and than Stanton had a goose egg and has hit a homer in 4 out of 5 games since

any strictly cash game players in here? i've been trying to roll with a 10% nightly exposure, 80 of which is cash.

curious if the cash game grinders could share some insight.

10% nightly seems incredibly nitty especially if 80% of that is cash. I don't play cash though.

I mostly play the 10-100 man leagues on FD. I'm probably in the ball park of 20% in play each slate that I play though I diversify quite a bit. I run about 20-40 line ups depending on slate.

how do you tackle the leagues? more of a GPP approach?