I have him #3 behind Trout and Harper myself provided he can stay on the field

They've started their rankings at RotoGraphs if anyone is bored

SP:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/rot...ting-pitchers/

OF:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/rot...n-outfielders/


They've started on position battles too. Very helpful if you want to digest all the changes and know the league up and down come opening day.

Spot open in a long going 2p2 Dynasty league. Post in thread if you're interested.

Curious: What kind of odds could I get on Tulo being a more productive fantasy player than Correa in 2016?

18-1

I'd put some cash on that:P

At the gym running for an hour so while j have dead time figured I'd give this a shot. Gun to my head...

1. Trout
2. Bro
3. Goldschmidt

The only argument I can come up with that can justify 1. Goldschmidt is you're getting 20+ steals out of your 1b. It's really not a good argument at all BUT besides Rizzo there isn't a 1b that can get you that so shrug.

4. Donaldson
5. Miggy
6. Stanton
7. Correa

Kershaw obviously belongs here but im still all in against drafting a pitcher in the top 20 so for all intents and purposes im gonna list top 20 hitters. My argument for donaldson is basically the post I made in response to (I think) iwreckshop's trade. If I knew I was getting 162 games out of stanton he's 4. If I knew I was getting 162 games out of Miggy hes 4. I don't think donaldson will match or do better than what he did last year but I don't think his floor is too far off the numbers he put up last year as there is no context in his career that would lead you to believe the stats he posted were an outrageous outlier. Im all in on stanton + bonds and think he has a very real chance on being the most valuable player in fantasy on a per game basis, but I mean, he's played 125 games once in the last 4 years. Im on record of hating miggy being drafted in the top 3 basically always but he's being hilariously underrated now for reasons that don't make much sense. He's not getting you 40 homers. Fine. He'll get you 200+ runs+rbi and he'll get you well over .300 avg and close to or over .400 OBP if that's relevant. He's elite in 3 categories and still good in a 4th even if it's a dropoff from elite. Im taking that in the top 5 always. My love for correa is well documented and an explanation is redundant.

8. Rizzo
9. Bryant
10. Arenado
11. Bautista
12. Machado

There's such a rush to anoint Bryant that people seem to forget Rizzo was truly amazing last year. The guy can easily be goldschmidt with a worse average. Bautista keeps getting slept on which continues to not make sense to me. He's not a health risk and if he plays 150 you're getting a lock 35/100/100 as a floor. I want to put him over arenado but I can't justify it. I can't put him behind machado til machado does it again.

13. McCutchen
14. Encarnacion
15. Pollock
16. Altuve

McCutchen says he's 100%. If he was hurt last year and still produced what he did he's huge value here. I keep seeing Gordon here and I don't like it. First off, Altuve > Gordon, that's just an indisputable fact. Secondly I don't get Gordon's appeal. You're already writing off any kind of homers or rbi with him and for the amount of bases he steals it's shameful he doesn't score more. Gordon doesn't walk, he's not gonna post another .383 BABIP season, so you're not getting a guy who will be a boon in either of avg or obp. Bonds should help that sure but I hate the idea of punting 2 categories just to chase steals. Im not paying a 2nd rounder for that. If you want to that's your call.

17. Posey
18. Springer
19. Betts
20. Gomez

Giants offense if healthy will be the most potent in baseball. There's some sweet obp 1-7 and posey has a very legit shot at going 100/100. Springer was doing great last year before he got hurt. A full season in this lineup and this pick is a bargain. I feel like a sucker for putting gomez at 20 but the other options are braun and gonzalez and lol putting your faith in either of them.

Good list. I think all your rankings are pretty fair, but I personally wouldn't draft Bautista quite that high, and am not a believer in a big Gomez bounce back

I'm knocking Bryant down to the end of the tier with McCutchen (batting average risk) and feel like Abreu is gonna smash and deserves to be in there somewhere .. but besides that it seems pretty reasonable to me

Ya I think Abreu is the guy I'd put on to bump Gomez off. I think Marte, Votto, Frazier, Springer, and JDMart are ahead of Gomez too, but its pretty close with all those guys imo.

Also just realized I totally forgot about Bryant on my top 30 from a few days ago. Hes not a first rounder for me, but easily inside the top 30.

1-3: isn't really debatable at all unless your in some weird league where pitchers are >>> hitters. Agree here.

4-7: defensible, but i am not taking Correa that high (he is a late first, early 2nd rounder for me - i think SS will be sneakily deep this year, so he doesn't get much of a boost if any for being a SS.) and I have reservations about drafting Miggy that high. I would prefer to take someone like Rizzo or even Bryant who has age on his side and the upside of getting 10+ steals, playing for the Cubs where Maddon was even sending Schwarber to run on multiple occasions. Also worth mentioning is that the 4 worst teams in baseball are all in the NL, and two are in the NL Central.

8-12: Bautista too high for me, don't like taking someone in the first round that might hurt me a lot in AVG department. I'm all aboard if we're talking OBP though, which we prob are.

13-16: All seems reasonable to me.

17-20: Now we start to disagree haevily. All my what at Posey being 17 here. I don't think he is even a top 50 pick this year. Is he even the #1 fantasy. catcher this year? Probably not. I also think 18 is a bit high for Springer. Gomez is outside my top 40 hitters probably. Easily outside top 30 hitters.

Overall pretty good 1-20, minus Posey IMO. I think your most glaring omissions are Jose Abreu and Starling Marte

here's a rough top 20 from me:

TIER I
1. Trout
2. Harper
3. Goldy

TIER II
4. Stanton

TIER III
5. Donaldson
6. Rizzo
7. Miggy
8. Bryant

TIER IV
9. Machado
10. Correa
11. Arenado
12. Abreu
13. McCutchen

TIER V
14. Marte
15. Betts
16. Pollock

TIER VI
17. Bautista
18. Edwin

TIER VII
19. Altuve
20. Braun

Forgot about Marte entirely. Slot him behind Altuve and move everyone else down 1

Abreu isn't a top 20 player and if he is its at the absolute fringe. He doesn't score enough, the offense behind him is **** and his avg isn't good enough

As for posey, the projected Giants lineup is something like:

1. Span
2. Panik
3. Duffy
4. Posey
5. Pence
6. Belt
7. Crawford
8. Pagan

There's no power in front of posey but a ton of OBP and there's a lot of power behind him. Posey will be elite in avg/runs/rbi assuming health. Even if he only gets 25 bombs that's an unreal sum to get out of your catcher and I'll put money on him vs schwarber without hesitation

He's gained Frazier/Lawrie hitting behind him, and Eaton/Melky were pretty strong in 2nd half. Think he's definitely top 20 this year

I don't have a problem with Posey in the 2nd round, but there is no way in hell he is going 100/100. I'd be willing to make a small wager to get back some of my Correa money

Fwiw "only" 25 HR would be a career high.
And 100 runs would shatter his career high by something like 35%. Players (ie all catchers) who max out around 600 PAs don't score 100 runs.
Unless they have a .500 obp that is.

Quite the turnaround on abreu from last year!

catchers aren't usually buster posey either. nor do they usually play in lineups such as this one

1. span: .365 OBP
2. panik: .378 OBP
3. duffy: .334 OBP
4. posey: .379 OBP
5. pence: .805 OPS
6. belt: .834 OPS
7. crawford: .783 OPS

not only do you have 3 hitters whose OBP makes posey getting 100 RBI a near mathematical certainty but behind posey and his near .400 OBP you have 3 players who were in the top 58 in all of baseball in OPS. even at 620 PAs there is a lot of potency in the giants lineup that posey is the biggest beneficiary of. posey would have to score 42% of the times he gets on base assuming a .379 OBP and 620 PAs not counting errors or forceouts to reach 100 runs. difficult to be sure, but somewhat feasable with those 3 behind him

I'd put the O/U on RBI at like 92.
And even 90 runs is ridiculously optimistic. 80 would be a big number for him.

Want to do a little prop on R+RBI?

Ok. I'll take o185

$50?
And is 185 a push?

K. And sure lets call 185 a push

These numbers looked fluky and unlikely to be repeated so I punched up steamer.

span .335 OBP
panik .337 OBP
duffy .323 OBP
pence .758 OPS
belt .786 OPS
crawford .691 OPS lol

Posey .306/.373/.473 18 HR, 69 R, 73 RBI

I'll take the over on all the Posey counting stats here, but under on the certain 100 RBI.

Cool. booked

Anyone else want the over on Posey 185 runs+rbi? Id be happy to take under.