Is safer to bet that donaldson will regress a little than maintain what he did last year but I think you're overstating just how much he will. The jump in his ISO last year is a direct result of going from playing half his season in cavernous oakland (where he had a sub .200 ISO) to Rogers (.300 something). His road ISO both years were close enough to identical if you normalize for the fact that he's playing divisional games in hitters parks in a loaded lineup vs the pitchers parks of the AL west in a not so loaded lineup

Harper is still the better player especially in an OBP league but I'd rather have donaldson for $1 than harper for $36 cuz I don't think their difference in 2016 will be worth $35

I think you missed a lot of value in this trade. You had one of the best hitters last year at $1 and the best pitcher at $18. Even if you have them both regressing, which is fine, you have plenty of time to shop to capitalize on perception and it shouldn't have taken this much to get gomez (a buy low) and Altuve to be thrown in with harper

Love both these guys. If Gutierrez can just stay on the damn field hes surely gonna get 20+ HR. And Parra prob just needs 400+ PA to be fantasy relevant and I like his chances

Not sure how high JUp rises in ranks now with Tigers, but going to get hyped a ton

Gotta think .260 .. 25-30+ homers and some decent steals? Only thing stopping him from 90 runs and RBI each would be hitting 5th with guys like Castellanos and the catcher and crap never driving him in. And even if that happened he would easily get 100+ RBI unless the lineup just falls apart due to injury

He was #16 OF (ADP = 51) .. 11-15 were Blackmon, JD Mart, Braun, Cespedes, Cruz .. hmm

I know I had a ton with Donaldson, but Altuve at 11 was pretty huge for me as well in that deal

I'd think a lot of JUp has to do with where he hits in the lineup.

Kinsler
? maybe upton 2nd?
Miggy
Vmart
JDmart

Or do you put Gose 2nd and hit Upton 5th?

Either way his #s will surely go up some since any lineup > SD, but it's still a big park and he still doesn't hit for avg

Gose isn't starting. Maybin is. I'd bat JUP 2nd in their shoes.

upton has to rise to a top 25 ADP

ausumus is pretty ****ing fail when it comes to lineup construction so i suspect the lineup (at least at opening day assuming health) is something like:

1. maybin
2. kinsler
3. upton
4. cabrera
5. JDM

assuming that's the case upton has clear 1st round upside and i'd take him in the early-late 2nd without hesitation (i still won't burn a 1st on him though cuz lol that)

Ehh Im not sold on Upton. I dont think the move to Detroit is going to make as big a difference as a lot of people do. have a feeling any gains in RBI+R will be offset by a decrease in steals.
If hes there in the 4th rd, sure id snap him up. 3rd round - maybe.
No way Im taking him in the 2nd. There are easily 25 guys I like more than JUp.

Trout
Harper
Goldy
Stanton
Machado
Arenado
Donaldson
Correa
Miggy
Rizzo

Kershaw
Cutch
Abreu
Max
Pollock
Bertts
Altuve
E5
Bautista
Marte

Springer
Posey
Sale
Arrieta
JDMart
Fernandez
deGrom
Votto
MadBum
Frazier

Thats 30 names just off the top of my head Im definitely taking before Upton. Probably missing some hitters, and I know there are an additional half dozen or so pitchers I like better too.

FSTA Draft tonight: http://www.rtsports.com/siriusxm

Park in 8th round is interesting since it's hard to gauge him atm

Why the hell is Stanton going 16th?

16th sounds really late, but then looking at it the only guys I that I cant see an argument for taking ahead of Stanton are Dee Gordon and E5.
Gordon bc LOLsteals, and E5 bc the only major argument for not taking Stanton in rd1 is injury concern - which E5 has plenty of himself.

Personally I would gamble on Stanton's health before Bryant's K issues, and Pollocks 1 season of greatness. haven't thought about it enough yet to decide which of the others (if any) I would pass on to get Stanton.

I agree on all 4 players, and it wouldn't really be close for me, take the beast. Stanton over Machado too.

I really don't get Bryant going in the first everywhere either. I know he has el brololo upside and all that, but bro himself shat the bed for 3 years before he bro'd out to the max. I'd rather have most of the guys going in the second, and it's not like Abreu, Betts and Davis don't have plenty of upside themselves.

That would be so juicy for JUP, incredibly juicy. Sadly I'd think there's about a zero percent chance at that lu config. First, Miggy hits 3rd. Last year Vmart hit 4th ahead of both JDM and Cespy.

so either it's:

Kins
Jup or JDM
miggy
Vmart
Jup or JDM

or a bum gets the 1 or 2 hole:

kins or bum
kins or bum
miggy
vmart
JDM
JUP


I mean I like your lineup a lot better, real baseball and obviously for JUP's fantasy value, but I think both of my lineups are much more likely based on last year.

stopped at 1 goldschmidt

He's going first more and more in NFBC drafts, including 3 of the last 6:

http://nfbcforums.stats.com/viewtopi...7609&start=100

terrible

your first pick shouldn't be a gamble. if you're taking anyone over trout you're taking bro and even that's wrong. trout just had his worst season yet and goldschmidt just had his best season and the difference wasn't really that big. plus trout is 4 years younger. trout's floor is basically comparable to goldschmidt's ceiling unless you believe he's magically going 40/40

5. arenado 8. bryant and 12. e5 are just laughably bad

13. gordon and 14. pollock are just as bad and even worse that both are taken while STANTON is still on the board

i love madbum but him being the 3rd pitcher off the board is propostrous

dickerson and heyward are steals in the 6th assuming dickerson isn't the OF that gets dealt from colorado

edit: ya this dr. roto guy who had the first pick has ****ing garbage for a team

The thing I hate about the Gordon/Altuve picks is they make a number of players valueless later in the draft who are otherwise viable. There's such a thing as enough speed, and you're more or less there when you pick one of those guys, meaning the MI or 5th OF whose value relies in part on their 20 steals is useless. I really don't like drying up options that way.

Goldschmidt over Trout is kind of the same thing. On top of the Trout's floor vs Goldy's ceiling thing, I never want to dry up my 1B options, while I always seem to find OF shallow.

WTF? Harper 5th?? Correa before Harper strikes me as incredibly dumb, even if you think Bro isn't seeing a hittable pitch all year.

Am I the only one who likes Stanton around 5-6? I'm still v early in my research.

Not necessarily what I would do, but I dont think Arenado at 5 is crazy at all. I have him neck and neck with Donaldson. What does your top ~20 look like?
And while I wouldnt take Bryant top 10, there are certainly arguments to be made for him. Especially in NFBC type leagues where there is no waiver wire and no trading. You have to be much more aggressive early in drafts than in a normal league.

E5 over Stanton is a head scratcher, but assuming Stanton is gone I could understand someone wanting Encarnacion in the #12-14 range.
Pollock is a bit of a gamble but 20/20 players are becoming more and more rare. And he has actually been great for 2 years now, just 2014 was injury shortened so nobody noticed - if he continues that hes a top 12 hitter.

I will never understand the guys who take Dee Gordon that early. Seems like a huge mistake to me. I dont get it.

RE: Dee Gordon... What he did last year really makes no sense and I can't find anything to make me think it is sustainable. Im just going to copy/paste what I wrote on another board about him:

I dont think his value is sustainable at all with a sub-4% walk rate, especially with his complete lack of power.

I mean his batted ball profile last year was nearly identical to 2014 (same LD%, FB/GB mix, IFH%, Soft/Hard hit% etc), but his BABIP and AVG both jumped up by ~40 points with really nothing at all to support any true improvement.
His plate discipline even got worse than it had ever been in his career.
Swung at more balls than any year since his MLB debut in 2011, had the lowest walk rate since 2011, and had his worst SwStr% since his rookie year.

Something is not adding up. Generally stats do not improve when underlying skill declines.

You keep that jinx off DEE

Well I had the chance to grab Dee at the beginning of last year in my dynasty league for nothing, so I'm assuming that's why he had a great year

RE Stanton: should never be a first rounder considering he never plays more than 75% of the season