Well a new season is upon us. Lots to discuss but figure start like last season with some ADP from some of the NFBC drafts. Again for those not aware, these leagues are typically $150 buy-in with 50 rounds and no in-season FA and "standard" roto rosters (14 hitters including two catchers, and 9 pitchers). Full disclaimer - there are usually significant prizes for the top 25 or so overall teams so there is incentive in these leagues to take on risk which could impact the drafting.
Link to the data:
http://hosted.stats.com/mlb/adp.asp?pos=all
Just going with the ranks, the actual average pick is not meaningfully different. For what its worth four guys (so far) have been taken #1 - Trout, Bro, Goldy and Kershaw. Can't really go too wrong with any of those guys I suppose.
1 Trout
2 Harper
3 Goldschmidt
4 Kershaw
5 Donaldson
6 Correa
7 Arenado
8 Machado
9 Bryant
10 Stanton
11 Rizzo
12 Altuve
13 Scherzer
14 Cabrera
15 McCutchen
16 Pollock
17 Betts
18 Arrieta
19 Gordon
20 Posey
21 Encarnacion
22 Springer
23 Marte
24 Abreu
25 Sale
26 Davis
27 Bautista
28 Greinke
29 Bumgarner
30 Fernandez
31 Votto
32 Schwarber
33 Harvey
34 Cole
35 Price
36 Blackmon
37 deGrom
38 Martinez
39 Kluber
40 Strasburg
41 Keuchel
42 Cespedes
43 Cruz
44 Braun
45 Frazier
46 Tulowitzki
47 Syndergaard
48 Upton
49 Archer
50 Hernandez
Guys I kinda like:
#10 Stanton - I think he's fairly slotted except for the guy above him (more on him in a second) but it will shock no one when Stanton finishes the season as a top two or three fantasy player. I'd rather draft with injury risk than actual skill risk.
#12 Altuve - Simply put, steals are down. About 22% over the last four years. In my 12-team home league, the average SB per team is down from 162 in 2012 to 128 in 2015. Just using Steamer I came up with Altuve being the #5 bat on the board for 2016.
#24 Abreu - I honestly wonder if I am missing something here as I have him as a top 10 hitter. The White Sox are no juggernaut but they'll at least be a credible MLB offense playing, and Abreu will play half his games in basically the best park for RH power outside of Coors.
#32 Schwarber - I would not advocate this in a 12-team league that starts one catcher. This is as much to do with the fact these NFBC leagues are starting 30 catchers every week. The bottom-end of catcher in the 20-30 range is crap. If you can get 500 PA out of Schwarber he will probably be #2 at the position (and #1 isn't out of the question) and be far more above replacement value than any other position you can take in the draft in that slot.
Guys I don't like:
#9 Bryant - I am not too concerned about his ability to put up the counting stats. And if you are in an OBP league go to town. But this guy could seriously hit .240 this year IMO. The BABIP and strikeout rate both point to this. If he hits .250, isn't he basically Todd Frazier who barely cracks the top 50?
#18 Arrieta - Nothing against him really but just hate the value in this spot. Not totally opposed to taking pitching here (Scherzer seems fine with his strikeouts and win potential pitching in that garbage division) but I think everything has just broken right for Arrieta the last two years (HR/9 around 0.30 is ridiculous) and think he's more of a 3-ERA guy with a strikeout an inning. Won't kill your team but I'd rather just take a hitter here and get one of the pitchers in the 35-50 range.
Also not a huge fan of Chris Davis (see Kris Bryant above), Cespedes depending on his landing spot (seems more of 25-28 homer guy, rather get Cruz or Braun or others) and still a little leery of Syndergaard but willing to change my mind on him.