Well a new season is upon us. Lots to discuss but figure start like last season with some ADP from some of the NFBC drafts. Again for those not aware, these leagues are typically $150 buy-in with 50 rounds and no in-season FA and "standard" roto rosters (14 hitters including two catchers, and 9 pitchers). Full disclaimer - there are usually significant prizes for the top 25 or so overall teams so there is incentive in these leagues to take on risk which could impact the drafting.

Link to the data: http://hosted.stats.com/mlb/adp.asp?pos=all

Just going with the ranks, the actual average pick is not meaningfully different. For what its worth four guys (so far) have been taken #1 - Trout, Bro, Goldy and Kershaw. Can't really go too wrong with any of those guys I suppose.

1 Trout
2 Harper
3 Goldschmidt
4 Kershaw
5 Donaldson
6 Correa
7 Arenado
8 Machado
9 Bryant
10 Stanton
11 Rizzo
12 Altuve
13 Scherzer
14 Cabrera
15 McCutchen
16 Pollock
17 Betts
18 Arrieta
19 Gordon
20 Posey
21 Encarnacion
22 Springer
23 Marte
24 Abreu
25 Sale
26 Davis
27 Bautista
28 Greinke
29 Bumgarner
30 Fernandez
31 Votto
32 Schwarber
33 Harvey
34 Cole
35 Price
36 Blackmon
37 deGrom
38 Martinez
39 Kluber
40 Strasburg
41 Keuchel
42 Cespedes
43 Cruz
44 Braun
45 Frazier
46 Tulowitzki
47 Syndergaard
48 Upton
49 Archer
50 Hernandez

Guys I kinda like:

#10 Stanton - I think he's fairly slotted except for the guy above him (more on him in a second) but it will shock no one when Stanton finishes the season as a top two or three fantasy player. I'd rather draft with injury risk than actual skill risk.

#12 Altuve - Simply put, steals are down. About 22% over the last four years. In my 12-team home league, the average SB per team is down from 162 in 2012 to 128 in 2015. Just using Steamer I came up with Altuve being the #5 bat on the board for 2016.

#24 Abreu - I honestly wonder if I am missing something here as I have him as a top 10 hitter. The White Sox are no juggernaut but they'll at least be a credible MLB offense playing, and Abreu will play half his games in basically the best park for RH power outside of Coors.

#32 Schwarber - I would not advocate this in a 12-team league that starts one catcher. This is as much to do with the fact these NFBC leagues are starting 30 catchers every week. The bottom-end of catcher in the 20-30 range is crap. If you can get 500 PA out of Schwarber he will probably be #2 at the position (and #1 isn't out of the question) and be far more above replacement value than any other position you can take in the draft in that slot.

Guys I don't like:

#9 Bryant - I am not too concerned about his ability to put up the counting stats. And if you are in an OBP league go to town. But this guy could seriously hit .240 this year IMO. The BABIP and strikeout rate both point to this. If he hits .250, isn't he basically Todd Frazier who barely cracks the top 50?

#18 Arrieta - Nothing against him really but just hate the value in this spot. Not totally opposed to taking pitching here (Scherzer seems fine with his strikeouts and win potential pitching in that garbage division) but I think everything has just broken right for Arrieta the last two years (HR/9 around 0.30 is ridiculous) and think he's more of a 3-ERA guy with a strikeout an inning. Won't kill your team but I'd rather just take a hitter here and get one of the pitchers in the 35-50 range.

Also not a huge fan of Chris Davis (see Kris Bryant above), Cespedes depending on his landing spot (seems more of 25-28 homer guy, rather get Cruz or Braun or others) and still a little leery of Syndergaard but willing to change my mind on him.

Glad I took SRM's buyout on that Correa bet.

#6

lolESPN, they have Billy Hamilton ranked 117.

In. Pumped for baseball to return. We should do a mock draft like last year.

At first glance, Bryant at 9 seems like a reach.

And ya Im in for the MOCK, also pumped!

I'm pumped too! I'll probably get crushed again in my 2p2 league but I dismantled my squad in my other league. I've got Correa, Schwarber as last round picks and traded all my studs with little keeper value (I'm still regretting trading Cueto though) for a bunch of early picks. I'll have 2 first rounders, 3 third rounders, 2 5th rounders, 2 7th rounders, 2 9th rounders, 2 10th rounders. I think that's right. Either way, I'm stoked for this year.

I would much rather draft Correa at 6 or whatever than Bryant at 9-10 - he's a much better bet to hit .275+ and will be a 5-cat producer. Oh and SS

I am down for a mock but wondering if we'd be better off with a CouchManagers one and just getting it done, as opposed to the slow one we did last year (that I think dragged to the point I went on vacation unfortunately). But I would be in for either

The OP list is just absurd

Miggy at 14 is laughable for any number of reasons. Fine, you're not getting 40 homers out of him but you'll still get elite production in 3 categories while still getting a 25 homer floor. Taking any of the 8-13 over him (except stanton) and probably taking arenado too over him is absolutely moronic

Stanton at 10 is also lol. He has the greatest hitter of all time as his hitting coach, a guy who only needed 1 spring to turn around crawford and turn bekt into something. Imagine what he can do with stanton. Like, the only reason you're taking stanton this low is because you think inevitably he's going to swing so hard he decapitates himself on the backswing or some **** and misses 80 games. Short of that his per game stats have among the highest floors in the majors, and as much as I love correa lmfao taking him over stanton

Cueto not being ranked makes no sense of course considering some of the other pitchers here.

Heyward not making the top 50 is also a pretty odd omission. If he hits his career average he's going to be a Roto monster in that lineup. I mean you can't have bryant Rizzo and schwarber as high as they are and not have heyward in the top 50 at all. For bryant rizzo and schwarber to be correct value where they're slotted, heyward is at minimum top 50

Agree on those guys. I'm still tinkering but have Stanton #2 (although not sure I got the stones to take him there if faced with that situation), Miggy #7 and Heyward around #30. That's just among hitters, haven't started looking at lol pitching.

The ADP data in that list is from completed slow drafts with eight hours per pick, so I suspect some of them started or ended before Cueto even signed. He's sitting in the mid-80s right now but he'll move up obv now

Would anyone be interested in a more modern category redraft league? Tinkering with some idea I arrived at:

R RBI SB OBP TB
K(or K/BB??) QS+W NSVH ERA WHIP

For the pitching rosters, I was thinking each team would roster something like 5 RP (RP slots), and 6 or so SP/P slots. We would have a large min IP requirement so someone couldn't stack a ton of RPs especially if we go with K/BB instead of K. The rosters would have more pitchers than a usual league because we bring in holds into the picture while still keeping RPs desirable. All depends on how big the league size is, but ideally i'd want around 50-60 RPs to be rostered.

So for a 12 teamer it would look like this

C
1B
2B
3B
SS
MI
CI
OF
OF
OF
OF
UTIL
UTIL

P
P
P
P
P
P
P
RP
RP
RP
RP
RP

BN
BN
BN

DL
DL
DL
DL

If its on Yahoo and not baller stakes Id be down.

Yea I'd try something cheap as long as I just have to do a weekly lineup. I can't take any more daily leagues

I'm in to escrow a $50-$100 league with these settings and a weekly format on yahoo.

Yep. I'm pretty much waiting on an injury, which is pretty ****ty.

If I get any of Stanton, Miggy, Cutch, Joey Bats or Cruz where they're ranked, I'm dancing. Donaldson and Bryant strike me as a touch high. Also think the list generally rates second-year players too highly, like every year. Will probably like Upton for better than where they have him ranked, assuming he's playing in a decent park.

Early season trade question for you guys.

In a 20 team contract dynasty league, ultra deep with 25 man MLB roster + 15 man MiLB (where we can also place major leaguers that we dont want to use on our active roster) plus unlimited DL. Over 800 players including basically all of the top 100 prospects are owned.
$120 hard salary cap, which cannot be exceeded at any time.

I feel like I have a really deep pitching staff for this league format, and can afford to trade someone:
($/years under contract)
Archer ($1/2yrs)
Gray ($1/2)
Strasburg ($15/2)
Salazar ($6.50/2)
Pineda ($5.50/3)
Iglesias ($2.50/1)
Medlen ($2/2)
Verlander ($1/1)
Hutchison ($1/2)
Morton ($1/1)
Bassit ($1/1)
Morrow ($1/1)

Realistically I can only keep 8 SP on my active roster. Most teams only have 6-7 MLB caliber SP's total. Not counting Morrow, I have 11 SP's with a pretty good top end of the rotation.

So I am looking to trade Sonny Gray for a 3B.
my current options are older than dirt Adrian Beltre and Trevor Plouffe who might be out of a starting job with Sano on the rise.
Ive been shot down on Arenado and Machado (even with including additional pieces) who are on similar contracts, but the Frazier owner is willing to deal.

Frazier is on an identical ($1/2yr) contract as Gray.
Would you send Gray + a minor piece for Frazier?

I would do that but I suck so take that with a large grain of salt

In a vacuum, yes. If you were desperate for a 3rd, yes and more. I don't see your 3rd base situation as all that dire though. Last year was Beltre's worst in Texas by quite a bit, given his age I don't want to call it a floor, but it's pretty close to his floor .287/18/83. I think he still has a shot at one last hurrah at a .310+/25/90+ typical Beltre season before the wheels fall off. Plouffe is a real asset as well. They like his bat and he's really turned it around with the glove at 3rd. As long as he remains the player he's been over the last 2 seasons he'll get his AB's.

Where are you guys mocking this year?

+1 to getting Frazier for Gray plus a little especially with Archer Stras and Salazar still leading your pitching staff. It's not like your mid and bottom end guys are crap either.

Cool thanks guys.
Now I just have to settle on the "small piece".
Hopefully the other owner will take a RP or a low ceiling prospect.

Franklin Gutierrez is definitely a guy to make sure not to forget about in the late rounds

Parra in Colorado should be a lot of fun to own even if he almost certainly will be a strict platoon. Also peralta

good question.
also are we gonna do another one here?

I'll mock here, though my research is barely above zero at this point.

Looking for thoughts on a few trades I just made. 4 year keeper league, $1 guys go the $2 the next year, then $8, and everyone above $8 is 10% inflation per year. Total of 8 guys can be kept and I inherited a team.

6x6 with OBP and holds.

First trade was Dee Gordon ($1) and Harvey ($1) for Andrew Miller ($9) and Donaldson ($1). Made this trade a few days before the chapman trade but still like it as Donaldson is hands down the best player.

Second trade was my Donaldson ($1), Desmond ($17) and arrieta ($19) for Harper ($36), Carlos Gomez ($11) and Altuve ($12). Obviously gave up some money but Donaldson and arrieta are two guys I have as regressing pretty hard this season and wasn't keeping lol Desmond.

Fwiw all players in the last deal can be kept for two more years. Thoughts?

In for that again and my schedule sucks a lot less this year so I shouldn't suck as much.

I'll still suck