some of it has to just be perception. he was thought of as the #1 wr in that draft class yet pretty much every other rookie wr outperformed him. relatively speaking his rookie season was obv fine but i could see it not being very confidence inspiring. then factor in the lolbillsoffense factor and you can see why hes dropping. weve come a long way from the youtube vids of him making 1 handed crazy athletic grabs and being all excited. heck im a bills fan and even im pretty meh on him right about now.

I take Sanders first too but I def think it is at least somewhat close given their similarities. Not elite guys talent-wise, but in great situations as WR2's for elite passing offenses. Sanders' advantage is that we've seen him succeed in this setup for a season, but Adams situation is more likely to stay elite given the red flags surrounding Peyton that aren't there for ARod.

Also, I'm def in the Watkins is being underrated camp. He has immense upside and we've seen plenty of WR's produce great seasons despite crappy qb play. Fantasy Pro's consensus rankings have guys like DJax/Amari/Edleman/Tate ahead of him all of whom I have a tier behind. Hell I'd take him over Keenan too.

Maclin another guy that is being dinged too much due to having a lol qb imo. I take him ahead of all those guys listed above too.

The issue is Sammy already had a chance to be the "WR that produces with a bad QB" and didn't really do it... now add on to that that he has one of the worst head coach a WR could have in terms of fantasy value...

I am by no means a doubter in his talent but I just don't think hes going to be any better (in fact I think hes worse with Rex there)

I personally would put him ahead of DJax (I just never draft guys like this he had either 12+ or 6 or less in every game last year... I like consistency) and Tate as I think Tate is mediocre when Mega is healthy.

But I do think I would put Amari and Edelman ahead of him just because you know they are going to get a TON of targets.

Maclin is a little different as hes proven he can be the guy, I think hes undervalued because Smith isn't as bad as everyone makes him out to be. that being said I dont suddenly see the chiefs going from 0 TDs to WRs last year to having an 10+ TD WR so his upside is definitely capped.

Meh, he's only had one year to do it so far, and the success that rookie WR's had last year is not a normal thing. 982/6 is still quite solid for a disappointing season (good enough for WR26) and I would actually argue that no coach could possibly hurt his value more than Marrone (though sure, Rex isn't ideal either). I think he is very likely to improve on those numbers, with some chance that the jump could be huge.

Why is Amari going to get so many more targets than Watkins (Watkins had 128 last year, only 18 wrs had more)? And even with Edelman getting more targets, we know he isn't gonna do much with them, so they aren't that valuable in standard (obv PPR is a diff beast and I'd have Edelman ahead there).

982/6 as a rookie, playing with a bad QB and through a bunch of minor injuries, is pretty good. An uncharacteristically productive class of wide receivers is skewing people's opinions.

Sanders is way more talented than Adams.

He is? Perhaps I am too jaded by all of those mediocre years in Pittsburgh. Are you implying that Sanders has a lot of talent or Adams just has very little? Plus Adams is much bigger iirc which I perhaps tend to overvalue.

Sanders has a lot of talent, and I think he was being underutilized in Pittsburgh + took a while to develop. I'm probably overstating the gap in talent, but Sanders went 1404/9 last year and I don't think that's even in Adams' realm of possibility.

If I remember correctly Marrone tends to throw a decent amount more than Rex... Rex is almost always the bottom of the league in pass attempts. (Buffalo was 13th last year in pass attempts per game, jets were 27th)

Speaking of pass attempts, Oakland was #4 with no real receivers to speak of... thats why I think Amari is going to get a million and a half targets.

Edelman and Sammy I have pretty close (and I think Sammy is 10x the receiver) but I'll take Brady/Bellichek > Taylor/Rex any day of the week.

I realize that last years WR class makes it look worse but I am not even looking at it that way (If I were I would have brought up how Mike Evans did in his rookie year with no QB). I am looking at Sammys current situation and saying how am I supposed to project an improvement? This is kind of how im breaking him down (this is my opinion obviously not fact):
-Same (or worse) QB situation
-Worse coaching situation (IMO)
-More talent to steal targets (this may be a stretch but percy is better than what they had, but not good enough to take coverage off Sammy)

So the only way I can project a jump for Sammy is that he makes some big strides in his game personally. Which is possible if I remember correctly he was already pretty polished coming out of college so its not like he was a raw guy that needed time.

I am more than open to people convincing me otherwise though because I love Sammy's talent!

How is Martavis Bryant going at 42

I'm struggling with late picks this year. I always try to pick Polk last. I'll try to go after guys like Sankey/D Cobb/Lockett I guess.

Well, from what I've read of other breakdowns, Marrone pretty consistently refused to throw on early downs which often left the offense in a hole.

I don't know that they will throw more this year, but I do think Watkins getting back to full health + taking another step in his development both technically and physically (he just turned 22, after all) would result in more production even if the context of his situation remained the same. And as bizarre as this sounds to say, I think putting Tyrod Taylor behind center may actually result in an improved passing game. (Even if only because teams have to worry about his mobility.)

Interesting note, earlier this offseason Watkins said something pretty pointed and specific, that the WR coach under Marrone (Rob Moore) didn't even bother to teach fundamentals like route-running. If that's true, we should expect a decent step forward in Watkins' technical skills this year.

I don't worry too much about "stealing targets" from a top player. Watkins is still the best receiver they have even with Harvin, and Harvin is more of a gadget player at this point than an actual wideout.

I'm not expecting a huge jump in numbers from Watkins, but even a small one would put him in like the 1100/8 range, which I think is more value than his current ADP suggests.

Seems about ADP there. Don't know if that is before or after the Pouncey injury either.

10 team PPR league - top 4 picks go Bell, Charles, Peterson, Lacy - who's your #5?

Brown? Forte? Lynch?

brown should be #1 overall so him maybe?

Brown for sure.

Just finished my draft and I pretty much love my team wanted to see your guys thoughts though. 10 team auction PPR otherwise standard scoring

QB Big Ben
rb forsett
rb spiller
wr a brown
wr megatron
te kelce
flex cooks
k Barth
d Dolphins
bench
l Murray
a cooper
Fitzgerald
j brown
d Johnson
taliaferro
royal

which "d Johnson"?

Your team is good as long as your top backs stay healthy and get the expected passing work.

sorry duke Johnson

12 team fullPPR QB/2RB/2WR/TE/FLEX 6BN 11th pick

Plus 3pt bonus for 300yds passing/ 100yds Rushing or Receiving

1. Dez Bryant
2. Demaryius Thomas
3. Jordan Matthews
4. Ameer Abdoullah
5. TJ Yeldon
6. CJ Spiller
7. Gio Bernard
8. Danny Woodhead
9. Tony Romo
10. Torrey Smith
11. Tyler Eifert
12. Devante Parker
13. Jets D/ST
14. Brandon Coleman
15. Ronnie Hillman


I feel pretty confident with my strategy of getting stud receivers first, then loading up on RBs that should be getting a lot of targets, especially once the top tier RBs are gone. Thoughts?

great job. your team is probably 25% to ship it and 25% to finish last. which is exactly where you wanna be. id cut taliaferro and royal for rb fliers. if youre trying to grab forsetts cuff id go allen over lo. but i dont think thats necessary at all.

like it a lot. id cut parker for a te flier. im totally fine with the eifert super late te plan but id also like to have a backup plan. you can go solid vet like miller/daniels or another young upside guy like asj/ebron but either way i want somebody else on my roster at the start of the season.

took shady at 26 in ppr last night. meh? solid value? still shoulda passed? thoughts?

That has to be fine. I mean he's going to be there in the opener. 26th has to be good value I'd think, even if he plays 10 games for you. Hopefully its just the right 10.

I think he is 3rd round value so that's about right.