yeah, I had him sprinkled in some lineups too =( worst part is, i have pierce in one of my highest scoring lineups (147)

I'm curious about the stacking theory for GPPs. Just a quick check off the top 20 in the FD 1 million (or maybe it was the 1.2 million), I see only 8/20 stacked a qb/wr or qb/te. I'm not saying its a bad strategy, but not sure it's a must.

holy **** i just realized i had wash instead of hou in half my lineups. talk about making a bad day worse. cant wait for wk 1 to be over.

Not as significant in NFL as it is in MLB. But you will see weeks this year where a team drops 50 something points and a full stack from that teams wins GPPs. It happened two or three times last year. The most notable was the Broncos Cowboys game last year that was like 52-50. People who stacked both sides won everything.

I had Houston in everything then changed to TB once Cam was announced out. Mistakes were made

im not sure how that happens. i guess just confusion same game and same cost??? either way it sucks to nail one of the cheapest defenses, have them go off, and then lose 11 pts to a misclick. but year, mistakes were made. several.

I need a big game from Ladarius Green tonight to profit this week. Made the switch to him when the Gates injury was announced. If I'd started Ryan instead of Romo I'd be sitting pretty but not really kicking myself for that one. Other big letdown was Crabtree. With the Niners conservative offense I guess he wasn't as good a play as I thought.

qft

Thanks for the info. Is the smarter $$ to play GPP's that have overlay and stay away from HU's, steps, etc? Are the beginner leagues +EV at all or not necessarily? I started this week and did 1 step, 3 HU and two big ones and just picked all my guys Saturday night late. Did not realize you could wait to submit guys before the 4PM or even late/monday games. All my opponents waited to choose their players...is this common and/or beneficial?

My games were low, low $$...just trying to figure out how much of a fish I am lol

You'll generally want to split your money between GPPs (ideally with overlay) and "cash games" (hu, 50/50s, etc). How you split it is up to you. Some people do a 50/50ish split, some people do as much as 80-90% cash/10-20% GPP.

Beginner leagues are for sure +ev, and they'll only be available to you for the first 60-ish (?) contests you enter in a given sport, I believe.

Your opponents all entered a lineup by 1pm kickoff, but (assuming you're talking about draftkings), you will always have the option to "late swap" players whose games haven't started yet. Since the games hadn't started and your opponents' players weren't locked in yet, they weren't visible to you. So maybe they did make a late swap, maybe they didn't.

Hope this helps.

Play the beginner leagues for as long as you can. +EV for sure. Choosing your games is all about what your looking for.

Do you want to just take shots, or hopefully sustain and build your bankroll for the entire year?
Option 1: Hunt for overlay in the tournaments and fire away.
Option 2: $4-$5 in a HU or 50/50 to every $1 you have in tournament play

Guys aren't waiting to select their players. DK (and eventually FD) hide the later start players so you can't just copy someone's team.

great advice!!

Do you guys find 50/50s to be lower variance than H2H? How good is the average opponent on DraftKings? Is the rake beatable long term?

probably 130 is right, didn't notice 25% of people have lions D still. hoping to end up around 150

My optimization model did not account for Shaun Hill Shaun Hilling. Several mistakes were made. Glad I didn't play heads up against Nutshot2 for bankrolls this week

You may have won all the money depending on exactly how many mistakes you made, my good friend

I would estimate that somewhere between 3-4 mistakes were made

50/50 should be higher variance compared to breaking up your games into individual HU games. If you have a 70 percentile lineup you win the 50/50, if you have a 30 percentile lineup you lose it. But if you had played HU each week instead, you prolly go 7-3, then 3-7.

it's also important to get opponent diversity in your H2H games. Lots of guys use only 1 or 2 lineups in H2H games so if you face a dude who crushes one week you are likely to be crushed in all your H2H games.

Wow, great info ITT so far. Thanks to all answering q's - I have a couple myself. Total beginner to DFS, I deposited $100 on DK just to get a feel for it. Played a couple $2 h2hs and joined some of the big contests, did like 6 different lineups and I should cash on 3 of them and make a small profit this week. Some general q's I have

1. I know you guys touched on cash game and big tournament allocations but how much is smart to wager each week on a $100 BR?

2. How many different lineups are generally used in cash vs GPP? If you only use 1 lineup for each is a GPP lineup a boom or bust lineup (taking higher variance players to get a higher score)?

3. If a player has a soft salary due to news that came out after salaries locked (like Emmanuel sanders this week) is it smart to start him in GPPs? I think he was owned in like 31.3% on DK this week. This might be obvious but I'm not sure if it's smart to fade obvious value plays in hopes of finding a lesser owned guy who goes off.

Hiws this look for minday night line up

Staff
Bush/matthews
Megatron/floyd/tate
Ladarous green
Novak
Det defense.

Should I get zona def instead and not be so detroit heavy?

Fading obv value plays for someone who is lesser owned is how to win gpps. For cash games its prob more about getting a line up that will score consistently well would be my guess since you can exploit your opponents taking higher risk picks.

I see very little to no value in playing a day with only 4 teams. There will be so much overlap that the rake wins

With $100 br I would be doing $8 in cash games and $2 in GPP per week.

My bankroll roughly 2.5k and I allocate $200 to cash and $50 towards GPP each week unless I'm overlay chasing.

I think in NFL you can go 25-40% per week. For MLB and NBA I agree with you