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01-06-2015 , 03:51 PM

#201

ntanygd760

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 13,663

If you like stats there is an endless amount to look through for the PGA

Quote

01-06-2015 , 03:55 PM

#202

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,767

Quote:

Originally Posted by ntanygd760

If you like stats there is an endless amount to look through for the PGA

And none of them mean much

Quote

01-06-2015 , 10:17 PM

#203

Thickslicing

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 672

Wondering if it's just gonna be who you luck into taking out of Day/Kuchar/Bubba for a lot of people. Curious week.

Quote

01-06-2015 , 10:33 PM

#204

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,767

Can you even put a lineup together if you use Bubba?

Quote

01-06-2015 , 10:41 PM

#205

ntanygd760

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 13,663

Playing bubba and the 5 cheapest players only leaves you $4600

Quote

01-06-2015 , 11:05 PM

#206

Thickslicing

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 672

DD you can Bubba and cheapest 5 and have 20k left over fwiw

Quote

01-06-2015 , 11:11 PM

#207

ntanygd760

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 13,663

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thickslicing

DD you can Bubba and cheapest 5 and have 20k left over fwiw

what is the salary cap on DD

Quote

01-06-2015 , 11:38 PM

#208

NxtWrldChamp

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 9,082

100k

Quote

01-07-2015 , 12:21 PM

#209

CohibaBehike

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 3,651

Kevin Stadler jumps out as good value this week. 50/1 to win and at or around his price everyone is 80/1 or higher.

Quote

01-07-2015 , 12:50 PM

#210

lardydardy

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 179

Do these PGA tournaments run in bracket format? Sorry for the noob question I know nothing about golf

Quote

01-07-2015 , 01:02 PM

#211

CohibaBehike

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 3,651

i can't speak for any site but DK, but you just fire up your best six guys and whichever team scores the most "points" wins.

DK scoring for PGA can be found here:

https://www.draftkings.com/help/pga

Quote

01-07-2015 , 04:17 PM

#212

CohibaBehike

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 3,651

also, no cut this week. when there is not cut I like going stars and scrubs. hoping I can bink 2 or 3 top 5s

Quote

01-08-2015 , 07:23 PM

#213

Dyenimator

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 23,131

Quote:

Originally Posted by CohibaBehike

I believe the single most important factor in PGA is course history. Not even sure how you could put that in a model.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CalledDownLight

I've got a few ideas and not sure which would be the best predictor, but probably something like Projected Points = A(WRh-AvgFinish) + ...

A would be some coefficient, WRh is historical world rank going into the event, and AvgFinish is the Average Finish in that event. Thus, that portion of the equation would add projected points to players with finishes above their World Ranking and decrease totals for players below it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ntanygd760

I would think the best way would be to group all the holes they play and group them into like holes. Similar shot shape required, fairway width hazards ect. It would be a ton of work but if you made the groups just generic enough you could predict the scores you would expect everyone to get on each hole ect. No idea how you factor in people yipping 4 footers but there is a lot of shotlink data out there. All this seems like way too much work but I think it is the direction I would go to make a predictive model for the PGA

been thinking this over for the past few days and I might consider doing something like this:

player's actual course history to get a baseline. obviously a low sample but it's the best immediate baseline.

then rate courses on a similarity scale (length, slope, rating, grass type, fairway width, hazards, fades/draws required, green speed etc.)

take scores from another course and project a range for the current course. the more similar, the tighter the range.

Quote

01-08-2015 , 09:20 PM

#214

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,767

The problem is that golf is such a low low margin of error. A guy can shoot a 64 as easily as he can shoot a 73.

Quote

01-09-2015 , 01:45 PM

#215

CalledDownLight

Toonces the Posting Bot

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 88,413

does anyone know when Hunter Mahan's baby is due? Is he safe to play this week or is there a real risk of him leaving the tourney early like he has before?

Quote

01-09-2015 , 04:41 PM

#216

CalledDownLight

Toonces the Posting Bot

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 88,413

I feel like I am drawing dead to winning solo just by looking at ownership percentages. There is an average of .76 other entries identical to mine based on those percentages alone, but that doesn't take into account how the salaries fit together. Any reason why they only let you pick 6 golfers? It seems especially stupid in such a small field.

Quote

01-09-2015 , 05:03 PM

#217

yeebo68

enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 63

yeah definitely a tough gpp week, should be a lot of overlap

Like Walker a lot this week, we'll see how it goes...

Quote

01-09-2015 , 05:06 PM

#218

CalledDownLight

Toonces the Posting Bot

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 88,413

confirmed my suspicion. I found 2 identical lineups in the dk 50k. Hopefully there aren't more than that lurking.

I got:
Bae
Kirk
Mahan
Reed
Streb
Streelman

I almost left 1k+ on the table but talked to a few people who suggested there are almost never identical lineups. Should've gone with my gut.

Quote

01-09-2015 , 05:08 PM

#219

CohibaBehike

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 3,651

this week weird that there only 34 golfers in the field.

Quote

01-09-2015 , 05:25 PM

#220

Thickslicing

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 672

On DD went

Day
Kirk
Henley
Clark
Noh
Streelman

gl to all

Quote

01-09-2015 , 05:26 PM

#221

CalledDownLight

Toonces the Posting Bot

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 88,413

Quote:

Originally Posted by CohibaBehike

this week weird that there only 34 golfers in the field.

yea, but why didnt dk adjust the way they construct lineups or the pricing since field is so limited? the higher priced guys basically forced you to construct lineups with a limited player pool and the mid tier guys still had some substantial gaps where only a few players could fit if you came up with a team of 4 or 5 and had say $7500-8500 or $14.5k-17k left.