TJ,
Nice post, I agree with most of it including specific examples, with the exception of Nola.
Forget upside for a second (which is elite ace) his rates are already eliteish. If you're dinging him for 2016 that's about as unlucky as I've ever seen.
20th looks like a true bargain. No idea what his NFBC ADP is but I bet it looks more like 12-15th than 20th by opening day and I think that's more fair/maybe still a bit of a bargain.