True, but that was my simple example. I suppose there is nothing to prevent one from weighting combos within villain's range, but this is a method to come up with an approximate result while playing. Doing such weighting would likely complicate things quite a bit, perhaps to make the method unworkable.

So, maybe the issue becomes one of doing a rough math calc to get an approximate answer versus a gut feel for what the answer might be.

absolutely. no way you could do an entire calculation including all combos for any standard size range while sitting at the table, so this method could be a lot like the "rules of 2 and 4" approximations as well as the approximations for whether or not your 88 in the cutoff is best.