I play the commerce 400NL with 5/10 blinds. This is a live game with high blinds but low starting stacks, so it plays much differently than online. I would say preflop is loose/passive 25% of the time and weak/tight 75% of the time. There is an occasional LAG/maniac that makes lots of moves but he is a rarity (because he usually doesn't last long)

Postflop is a different story and people will play more deceptively and aggressively especially with short stacks, but in general I would say the postflop is is also much more straightforward (ie weak/tight) than online.


So now that I've described the nature of the game I play, I have a question. Why not fold KK preflop to a shove? It is true that starting stacks are 40bb's deep, and that the short stacks (< 25bbs) will do all sorts of wild things. But from everything I've seen I highly doubt that a push against a 50+bb stack is profitable at this game. I say this because:

1. Preflop is extremely straightforward against almost all 50bb+ stacks. Jack and Tens are flat called, often also AK. Queens are borderline and could go either way. only AKs, QQ, KK and AA are 3bet.
2. I have never seen a 50bb+ stack push all in with anything less than AA/KK. I have seen queens and kings call these however.
3. I have seen players lay down KK to a push at this game. It comes up infrequently, maybe once a night, but the aggressor usually tables his hand face up. Guess what it is the vast majority (or all) the time?

I don't get it guys. Not folding KK preflop in shallow games is taken here dogmatically yet I could not see a more -EV play at my table (again against 50bb+ stacks) What is the rationale behind it? More combos of AK and Queens than Aces? If so then I feel that reasoning is terrible and I'm going to play the 400 based on my own read of the situation.

It comes down to how well you know the range of that player. The table you described is pretty exceptional, and I would say easy to take advantage of by several pre-flop raises.

The casino I play at, there are enough people who shove with less than AA, esp at 40BB games that I have to call. The reasons they push are to defend their 77+ or AJ+ from being outdrawn.

KK can be an easier fold to an all in pre-flop push in a really deep game with sensible tight players.

If this is true you may want to open up your 3betting range and 3bet light from time to time. It's more likely not 100% true though

I'm sure its not 100% true but it is a pretty solid guideline that JJ is flat called and AK is the weakest 3betting hand.

I regularly 3bet Jacks and tens (rarely 9's) but otherwise don't know what else to 3bet light with such small stacks. Putting in $150 preflop with only say $400 more behind makes speculative hands a bluff.

new players often get the impression that any time you get stacked, you could have avoided it by playing the hand better. some people take this to extremes, and get it into their heads that it is much worse to call with the worst hand and lose than to fold the best hand and miss out on money they should have won (when actually, in most cases, the exact opposite is true due to pot odds).

the "never fold KK" dogma is something that came about to stop people from thinking like this. if you actually understand the pot odds being offered, understand your equity against his range, and you still think you won't be ahead often enough to justify calling with whatever pot odds you're getting, then go ahead and fold KK. just try to make sure you're doing it because you think calling is -EV and not because you're a weak tight nit.

And to think i got raped on this forum when i started my first thread about when i folded KK pre flop.

Answer to me these simple few questions for a 40bb deep game;

1) What hands you (the random player) raise with in this game when you are the first to open raise?
2) What hands you reraise say to from 3 to 9 bb?
3) How many people at the table?

In answering those questions you will soon realize that its pretty tough to fold KK unless the game has become so tight and careful that all reraises are done with 3-5% hands only. But then this is exploited often so it will stop being so tight. The smaller one's stack the harder it should be to fold KK without exceptional read. The problem is that its definitely wrong for people that have QQ or JJ to not push all in if there are limpers and 1 raiser maybe with some flat caller(s) etc. Same for AK . This means those that force the all in on you are not strictly QQ-AA. But even if they were the fact that you possibly have already placed some chips in the hand (3bb ,6bb?) plus the potential of extra dead chips makes it practically impossible to fold because you need around 44-45% equity anyway and you have it even if it were just QQ-AA those that shove all in . My point is that someone with TT or JJ or AK is not playing properly at this depth by simply reraising and hoping to catch something on flop . I mean what are you to do reraise from 3bb to 9bb and have only 31bb behind then see the flop and miss and you are out against some small pair or some audacious bluffer? Those are all quality top 3% hands and they should be far from being concerned that they are behind when there is a raise and even some times on a reraise. What i am saying is that although its kind of semiridiculous to reraise to 40bb with 1010 on a 100bb or 200bb deep game its nowhere near stupid or even questionable when there is only 40bb left. So if the action is opening raise , some flat callers then all in its hard to put the all in on just QQ,KK,AA.

Is it possible that the only reraises done are with hands against which any 5.3% hands
ie 88+,AJs+,KQs,AKo have automatically less than 45% equity if it then goes all in?
You have to see things from the perspective of the guy that escalates to all in. It is not just QQ+ the hands that make sense to shove with when the depth is so small. That makes KK very easy to call with.

The guy that has KK has either acted already in the form of an opening raise or reraised or has yet to act and facing now an all in. So he either has placed 3bb-4bb in or 9bb or nothing yet. He then faces some sub 40bb entry cost to see a pot that is 85bb or more. Big fat chance that KK who now only needs some 45% or less is behind in general here so much that its negative EV to call. I am not buying it.

Something else to think. Become for a moment AA in this table. What is your problem? Your problem is that 6 people flat call your small ep raise or that you make a big reraise or an all in and they all fold. So the AA is not going to be shoving all that often here unless the activity is such that the pot is already big and the guy is looking for 1-2 opponents for 80+or 120bb+ pot or happy to take down all the reraisers uncontested. But if there is no big activity and only a raise and maybe a reraise the AA is not going to go all in as 3bet if he thinks you will fold. He will try to raise enough to pot commit for sure but make it enticing for you to call and see a flop possibly hit your pair and then take you down when you bet or know that you will give him action anyway with an all in of your own. He is not going to make it cheap to see the flop but he will make you pay as much as possible without scaring you and still allow you to be the first that goes all in hopefully if possible. Thats how you play AA intelligently. You entrap but not in a cheap stupid way.

My point here being that you will not see AA as all in right away ( i mean as a response to a raise to 4bb or even a reraise to 6-12bb as often ). But hands like AK, QQ, some KK (depending on table action) even JJ and TT will be eager to go all in trying to get away uncontested or reduce all action to one opponent . AA has no such fear or urgency. AA will go all in if he knows he will be called and less often in a way that will scare everyone.

I therefore expect most escalation to all in by the other player to not be coming from AA (ie proportionally as you might expect if you put them on a QQ-AA,AK range) . I expect far more all ins to be initiated by less than AA than initially one might naively imagine.

Make yourself AA in that table for a moment and see what i mean. You will agree with me that those that come over the top vertically are not AA as often as one might imagine on a simplistic hand strength basis. AA will go all in when it knows its already too late for you to fold or when its somewhat happy with the pot built even if all folded now (which by the way will not happen over 50-60% of the time) . So make yourself AA and look at the table action and imagine if you had that AA in the shoes of the guy that is going all in now (and you have to react to now with your KK) would it make sense to escalate to all in at that spot or you would still try to entice more action. There is someting about the way people play AA that smells confidence and greed at the same time.

I think that you are bringing the competition up to your level when making this analysis. I say this because I rarely see AA flat call or limp/re-raise (I have seen AA LRR once)

Live players are not as tricky as online, for the most part they play a conservative game and make occasional moves AFTER the flop but not before (assuming 50+bb stacks) Paying $300 for an attempt to squeeze or raise queens for value seems like too much to them. Therefore you do not see this action much at all. I think of it almost like a pre-flop "etiquette" since people play big preflop hands so straightforwardly.

If I was a better player I could really capitalize on this timidness. I think I may need to do some EV calcs to figure out some good metrics for squeezing.

Do whatever you want with kings but make a killing 3betting the entire table at will if they are folding KK face up and only calling AA, in fact if that is tru you can almost surely have a +EV 3bet with Any Ax, since it reduces the combinations to make AA. IMO if a game is nitty enough pre to consider folding KK then you need to bet 3bet bluffing air.

If you have no doubt you opponent is playing aces, then fold KK.

Alpha13 at least tried to paint a picture of the opponents and game texture. And replies are still arguing that it is wrong.

I did enjoy some laughs from the thread, though, thanks.

Would you lay down KK in this position?

i also play the 400 at commerce. i can confirm it is generally pretty tight, preflop 3bets usually means something pretty big, i'll go ahead and say JJ+, AQ+. 4bet = AA or KK.

i agree with alpha13's conundrum (seems like these players always have strong holdings). i won't fold KK preflop though, unless i'm risking like 60bb+ preflop against a very tight player's 4bet, or some other radical situation.

also confirm LAGs get PUNISHED.

sorry but to put it another way

are you telling me that everyone who shoves has a monster hand? Its more a rule of poker than your casino that people WILL shove with marginal hands regardless of table image

At my local torny other day a new lad i hadnt seen him play ONE hand, then he shoves - someone actually called - he had pocket 7s...

quite simply they are short stacked, they need to take risks / gamble, they will shove with marginal hands

I remember that now that I see the link. To be fair, that had way more to do with your rationale and thought process than it did the idea of folding KK pre. Assuming you've learned something about the game since then, I'm sure you'll agree your logic was pretty bad if you go back and read it.