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 07-14-2012, 12:53 AM #1 stranger   Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 8 What would you do in this spot. Alright you guys I have a serious question, and would like some serious feedback. I was in a 4 handed game tonight, the blinds were 10-25 cents. I was on the button (Q-7 suited in diamonds) and raised to 75c. The small blind folds and big blind calls. There is 1.60 in the middle, and the flop comes qj4 w/ two diamonds. The big blind ( who i have played a lot with and generally bets in this spot with a hand) bets 1.20 to me, i re-raise to 3.60 all day. She insta-ships for 17 all day. Going through her range here, The worst case scenario (in my mind) is that she had QJ, and i was drawing to 9 outs. It was \$17 to call to win \$25. I was wondering, regardless of the stakes, what you would do in this spot? Could you explain the math and why you would or wouldn't call. I understand that not knowing a whole lot about the player will affect your decision, but what would you do against a person you suspect has a good hand in this spot.
 07-14-2012, 01:25 AM #2 enthusiast   Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: Denver Colorado Posts: 63 If your gonna play the math here the simple answer (if you feel you only have 9 outs) is to fold. You only have 34% equity and you have to call \$17 to win \$25. It would have to be something on the lines of having to call \$8 to win \$25 for this to be the proper mathematical call here (assuming you only have 9 outs). that being said you did smash the flop here 4 handed and I don't think the villain has to be as strong as QJ or JJ to jam. KQ or AQ is very likely which means your 7 is live and thus more outs (still not the right price to call here). Overall I say you only have \$4.35 invested wait for a better spot.
 07-14-2012, 01:49 AM #3 stranger   Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 8 Re: What would you do in this spot. Thx for the reply. I didn't put her on a set (not ruling out the possibility, but even talked it aloud and said she probably had 2 pair), but if that was the case and my 7 was live (if she had j4, or q4) i had 15 outs ( 9 flush outs, three outs to the 7, and three outs to the J). I don't usually like putting my money in, in this spot, but I think the right play is to call, If she does have a set, Im going to win roughly 30% of the time and am calling 17/42 (40% ) not the best, but that is the worst possible scenario. If she does, in fact have a draw like K10/9-10 of diamonds Im getting great pot odds, or if she has the j4 /q4, im even money.
07-14-2012, 01:56 AM   #4
stranger

Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 8
Re: What would you do in this spot.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Zombiebrains If your gonna play the math here the simple answer (if you feel you only have 9 outs) is to fold. You only have 34% equity and you have to call \$17 to win \$25. It would have to be something on the lines of having to call \$8 to win \$25 for this to be the proper mathematical call here (assuming you only have 9 outs). that being said you did smash the flop here 4 handed and I don't think the villain has to be as strong as QJ or JJ to jam. KQ or AQ is very likely which means your 7 is live and thus more outs (still not the right price to call here). Overall I say you only have \$4.35 invested wait for a better spot.
If I knew i was up against a set and had 34% equity, i would only need to be getting 2-1 odds or calling \$8 to win \$16 to break about even. In my case I would need around \$34 dollars in the pot to make calling \$17 right (if i always knew she had a set in that spot).

 07-14-2012, 02:24 AM #5 enthusiast   Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: Denver Colorado Posts: 63 Yeah, your right about the pot odds there I wasn't thinking correctly, you would need 8/16 or 17/34 to call. Even with that the math doesn't add up to a call but that's assuming she hit the top end of her range here. Your flipping or even ahead of a lot what I assume is her range a good portion of the time as well, 910dd K10dd KQ AQ AKdd like you mentioned. With further thought I feel either choice here is really acceptable. The nit in me says fold but the gambler says ship it. I lean toward the nit only because of your history with the villain.
 07-14-2012, 02:24 AM #6 enthusiast   Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: Denver Colorado Posts: 63 What was the outcome of the hand
07-14-2012, 03:30 AM   #7
stranger

Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 8
Re: What would you do in this spot.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Zombiebrains What was the outcome of the hand
she did have q4, and i called. I hit flush on turn. But villian and another player tried to say how i made a bad call. They have no idea about the math behind the game, and therefore wasn't able to get through to them on why it wasn't a bad call, so i thought I'd get some other people's input about this hand.

 07-15-2012, 07:47 PM #8 old hand     Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: SoCal Posts: 1,316 Math said you arent getting the right price and given that she is a chick, i'm generalizing and sayimg she is never bluffing and prob has tptk, tpgk, tp, sets. So given that i'd fold, but if its cash and i can reload, then i'd prob call just so i can hit my flush or 7 ott and fist-pump and scream, "boom" in her face......ahhh, the gratification of getting it in during a bad situation and coming out happy(alot like many sexual encounters i've had)
 07-16-2012, 03:53 PM #9 old hand   Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: Chiang Mai Posts: 1,382 Re: What would you do in this spot. You didn't need to raise the flop.
 07-16-2012, 09:49 PM #10 centurion     Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 121 Re: What would you do in this spot. there are players that feel it is a great play to get all in w/ the Ace high flush draw here. in those instances you are going to feel good w/ ur call. Player dependent reads req.
 07-17-2012, 03:01 AM #11 old hand     Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 1,383 Re: What would you do in this spot. You need 17/41 = 40.5% equity here. Assuming villain's range is exactly all possible 2 pairs and sets, then you barely are good here. However I personally wouldn't expect her to be playing Q4 or J4 preflop although she obviously did, so I would weight it towards QJ or 44 if this happened to me against an unknown. Board: Qh Jd 4d Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 41.883% 40.87% 01.02% 11328 282.00 { Qd7d } Hand 1: 58.117% 57.10% 01.02% 15828 282.00 { QQ-JJ, 44, QJs, Q4s, J4s, QJo, Q4o, J4o }
 07-17-2012, 06:26 AM #12 veteran     Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: Stanford, CA USA Posts: 3,306 Re: What would you do in this spot. Seems to me you have 42% equity here vs a variety of great hands and no bluffs. This make it a very easy call . Just evaluate how much you need to call divided by the total resulting pot minus rake and you will see using your numbers that you have it less than 42% (fix your numbers in OP and give the stacks etc because if she pushes 17 you do not spend 17 more unless you meant she raised another 17 over your last bet).
 07-17-2012, 02:29 PM #13 old hand     Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 1,383 Re: What would you do in this spot. ^ yea sorry forgot to mention I snapcall here, the range I gave villain is one of the tightest possible and you're still breakeven on it

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