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04-25-2012, 03:34 PM   #76
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Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb As far as Minowax, his sample is big but not enormous and doesn't even yet equal a fulltime years worth of play. He's also winning at basically a razor thin winrate, and he's the only person in any of these innumerable threads that has ever even attempted to provide numbers indicating beating the game. It speaks volumes that in umpteen is-2/4-limit-beatable threads with thousands of posters responding, we have a grand total of ONE player with a small sample and a tiny winrate. For all we know, he could be breakeven or down after the next 200 hours.
Yeah, his tiny winrate needs to have about a 6000 hr sample (if dealt 25 hands/hr) to make the chance of his \$0.90/hr win rate come from a long-term winner 97.5% of the time. With his current sample, 16% of long-term losers will have a winrate of \$0.90/hr after 1600 hours. The long run in live poker takes foreverrrrrrrrr.

04-25-2012, 06:48 PM   #77
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Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking?

Quote:
 FWIW I think you are overestimating how much comes off the table.
Feel free to give me some alternate figures, I'll happily discuss them. I fired off, at 10%/4 max, averages of \$3.25 per hand rake and \$1.25 per hand tips, 28 hands per hour. What's unreasonable there? I feel like the first and third figures could easily be LOW if anything.

04-26-2012, 03:48 AM   #78

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Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb Feel free to give me some alternate figures, I'll happily discuss them. I fired off, at 10%/4 max, averages of \$3.25 per hand rake and \$1.25 per hand tips, 28 hands per hour. What's unreasonable there? I feel like the first and third figures could easily be LOW if anything.
the 1.25 figure i believe is high, but the rake average is low.

04-26-2012, 08:57 AM   #79
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Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MNOWAX the 1.25 figure i believe is high, but the rake average is low.
I thought both would be too high. I have nowhere near 1600 hours at \$2/4, so I will defer to what seems to be the more common view that \$126 an hour is a good estimate.

I felt like the times I have played it, the average rake was lower than \$3 and average tip was probably slightly below \$1, but again, I don't have a lot of experience there.

04-26-2012, 09:14 AM   #80
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Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MCS I thought both would be too high. I have nowhere near 1600 hours at \$2/4, so I will defer to what seems to be the more common view that \$126 an hour is a good estimate. I felt like the times I have played it, the average rake was lower than \$3 and average tip was probably slightly below \$1, but again, I don't have a lot of experience there.
This was quite a few years ago but from what I remember of low limit stud/lhe that would hold true for a typical game. A lot of times it was people folding trash, limping along with decent cards, 2-4 players would see most flops/4th street, a lot of streets would check through, people'd bet big hands and people would then fold/chase/"keep you honest". Those games wouldn't have been hitting \$3 on avg if they were \$2/\$4. Of course there was also the occasional table with 3 drunks capping every street which would average the max. Have really no idea how the small games play now but I wouldn't be surprised if many of them were similar to my experience especially w/ how popular the bad beat thing is now. Can see a lot of bad regs limping their eligible hands, smiling and checking it down, then asking their wife how she did on the nickel slots today before shipping the free buffet. Those games wouldn't rake \$3 a hand.

Also think over \$1 rake is high (we tipped quarter chips on a lot of pots way back when to date myself). You figure most people don't tip over \$1 very often, many people don't tip at all on chops, quite a few people don't tip on small or even medium pots, etc. I really can't see the average getting over \$1 even with the occasional senior citizen throwing nickels at the cute blonde every time he rakes a \$12 pot. If the average is over a buck how on earth are there so many tipping/dealer bitch threads on this site?

04-26-2012, 01:40 PM   #81
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Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking?

Quote:
 I thought both would be too high. I have nowhere near 1600 hours at \$2/4, so I will defer to what seems to be the more common view that \$126 an hour is a good estimate. I felt like the times I have played it, the average rake was lower than \$3 and average tip was probably slightly below \$1, but again, I don't have a lot of experience there.
It's possible I'm a little high on the tip figure, but not by much, if I am at all. Most people tip on most pots, as it's easy to do so with so many white in play. All you need is a couple of pots every half to be tipped \$2 or \$3 and that's going to bring you above \$1 on average. I mean, if you want to run some numbers with a \$1.10 per hand average, that's fine.

As far as the rake, I can't imagine my estimate is high there, I honestly thought it was being too conservative if anything. It's really not difficult for 2/4 Limit pots to get above \$30 or \$40. If you get 6 players, including the blinds, to the flop, and any bets that get called on the flop and turn multiway, you're there. People play so horrendously that at a 8+ player table you're going to have multiple players reach showdown almost every time.

Quote:
 If the average is over a buck how on earth are there so many tipping/dealer bitch threads on this site?
In those threads, 99% of the posts are players arguing for or against tipping, or commenting on their personal tipping system. Rarely if ever do dealers show up and outright complain about the amounts they get tipped.

05-26-2012, 07:21 PM   #82
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Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by RustyBrooks I can only really report on where I've been but Winstar in OK has 4/8 5/10 (this always tilts me that they have both because 4/8 is a freakin \$1 chip game) 10/20 and possibly another level above that. The Oaks in Oakland has 1/2 2/4 3/6 6/12 15/30 and I think there are a few regular games higher than that every week. It does seem a bit regional - limit games in mid stakes are way more common if there is not a lot of NL games.
Winstar has had nothing except 4/8 lhe since January 1, 2012 except for twice I saw a 6/12game going. I will say I do not play weekend evenings usually, but have played any and all daytimes.

Which

 05-26-2012, 09:20 PM #83 veteran     Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 2,342 Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking? skimmed this thread. Surprised on the first couple posts. I shall direct the IRS to this thread when they ask why I haven't paid taxes on my "poker winnings". It will be clear to them that it is impossible I won anything playing at \$2/5 because no pros exist below \$10/20 NLH.
05-29-2012, 07:19 AM   #84
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Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by tmckendry skimmed this thread. Surprised on the first couple posts. I shall direct the IRS to this thread when they ask why I haven't paid taxes on my "poker winnings". It will be clear to them that it is impossible I won anything playing at \$2/5 because no pros exist below \$10/20 NLH.

05-29-2012, 07:03 PM   #85
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Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by dgiharris I have never been to a casino that "only" had 2-4 LHE. 4-8, 5-10, 6-12, 8-16 LHE are ubber common. Casinos always spread at least two of those games. Sorry, I can't believe you when you say, "i'd like to move up but there are no mid limit games". Sorry, I gotta throw the bs flag on that.
At the Hollywood in Lawrenceburg Indiana, you don't see a LHE except 3-6. Often several tables. Very rare 5-10. (When they do get a long enough list, they are not eager to try to start the game because the list is usually stale.) Got a down of 10-20 heads up in once, but I think that was a dealer who was actually supposed to go home but got permission to screw off and deal a down to us first. They claim to be willing to spread 10-20 or 20-40 on a time charge of \$6 per half hour, but I haven't seen it done. They talk about trying to get it running in the B&M room-specific forum occasionally.

It's a 40 table room, and it gets busy. There will be a double digit number of 1-2 and 1-3 NLHE games running, a smattering of bigger NLHE games and 1-3-5 or higher PLO. Occasionally a 5-10 Limit O8.

 06-30-2012, 12:02 AM #86 banned   Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 15 Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking? Since I started playing 8/16 full time I have been crushing it. In the last 13 days I have played 65.5 hours and I have won \$3450 dollars so far. I realize that the sample size is still LOL low and running at a 3.3 BB per hour rate is probably unsustainable and I am guessing it will probably settle in the 2.5ish BB per hour area for me long term.
06-30-2012, 12:08 AM   #87
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by mike_johnson Since I started playing 8/16 full time I have been crushing it. In the last 13 days I have played 65.5 hours and I have won \$3450 dollars so far. I realize that the sample size is still LOL low and running at a 3.3 BB per hour rate is probably unsustainable and I am guessing it will probably settle in the 2.5ish BB per hour area for me long term.
I have avg a little over 2 Bb per hour at 3-6., 4-8 6-12, closer to 1.5bb for pink chip , 9-18 . This over a large lifetime sample. So it could be done.

06-30-2012, 12:23 AM   #88
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Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW I have avg a little over 2 Bb per hour at 3-6., 4-8 6-12, closer to 1.5bb for pink chip , 9-18 . This over a large lifetime sample. So it could be done.
Now that is pretty impressive to get that at 2/4 and 3/6. Thought that would be impossible.

06-30-2012, 12:45 AM   #89
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by mike_johnson Now that is pretty impressive to get that at 2/4 and 3/6. Thought that would be impossible.
2-4 sample size is minuscule, but I am doing above numbers.

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