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04-17-2012, 03:01 AM   #16
old hand

Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,391
Re: Friends don't let friends play 2-4 LHE ... unless they're drunk

Quote:
 Originally Posted by dgiharris We can also include a couple of more costs. probably costs you \$3 in gas per round trip to the casino. I'd imagine that you spend \$10 in food and drink per every 20 hrs of play (being very conservative). Assuming you play 1 session every other week. 25 sessions a yr x 9 x \$3 = \$675 in gas food costs. \$10 per 4 sessions (round up to 7 sessions a year where you buy food/drink) 7 x 9 x \$10 = \$630 \$675 + \$630 = \$1305 \$1450 - \$1305 = \$145 over 9 years
Adding in food costs is fairly ridiculous. If he didn't go play lhe he'd quit buying food? If anything you should be adding food comps to his winrate not subtracting the food he buys.

The OP seems to be a frequent subject and a tired one. A couple guys who sucked at poker, work a 9-5 now, and still manage to post a thousand times a month come on and hate on anybody who wins at poker. A few low stakes grinders claim to make doctor/lawyer money playing 1/2. A couple more guys do some half assed calculations. Somebody else posts the same OP a week later (and rarely as any kind of legitimate question but as something like this). On and on.

 04-17-2012, 12:58 PM #17 The Situation     Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: CA and Vegas Posts: 8,377 Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking? Adding the cost of tips, rake, food, and travel expenses is all part of "poker" costs. Buying food and drinks at the casino is not the same as buying food at the supermarket. I'm not "hating" on OP, just trying to answer his question honestly. What would you prefer, an answer with no justification behind it? As for adding comps, that is a legit point, so if we add comps then we can subtract food costs by half and add \$315 to his winrate so we're talking \$460 over 9yrs which is still flatlined and statistically the same as breakeven.
04-17-2012, 01:19 PM   #18

Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Phelps, NY
Posts: 1,002
Re: Friends don't let friends play 2-4 LHE ... unless they're drunk

Quote:
 Originally Posted by cltrich If (fill in with your favorite pro) made a prop bet with one of his buddies to see if he could beat a 2/4 game for 1600 hours and could only win \$.90/hour than maybe I'd see your point. However, I don't think MNOWAX is claiming to be at that level. But since 99% of those better than him probably wouldn't ever sit at a 2/4 table, even just to goof off while waiting to get a seat in their chosen game, we'll never know how well they would do. I think MNOWAX has given us the best indication we'll ever get, that the game is beatable, even if for extremely small amounts. Maybe you can help us out MNOWAX. What is the rake at this casino? How much do you tip? Do you ever play higer? If so, how do you fare at those tables.
Over the years the rake has changed. When I first started playing they were doing \$3 drops ( 1-flop, 1-20, and i believe 1 at 40) then they added a 1-BBJ drop. When they opened the new room, they changed and did 10% to 4 for a total of 4+1 now. (FYI This is Turning Stone Casino) I only tip if pot is over 30, if so, I tip 1.

With the way my casino is, it rarely (if ever) gets a higher limit game going other than 20/40 during the times i do go there. I have played higher limit stakes here ( i have occasionally played the 5/10 LHE when it ran briefly as well as a 5/10 O8 game ) but the majority of players are playing 1/2 200 Max NLHE which I have played, but don't like.

The player pool is interesting. The 2/4 tables are mainly littered with recreational players, and busto regs trying to rebuild a bankroll for NL (and failing when they try to use NL tactics at a 2/4 limit table). My value bets always work because people are calling so light. They are easy to read and get away from hands when I see that they hit on the turn or river (which happens quite a lot obviously) I am also able to bluff occasionally people off of hands (an impossible task ESPECIALLY at these stakes).

I would LOVE to move up in stakes, but since I'm not a huge fan of no limit and there are no games to step up for me, I'm still kind of stuck playing 2/4. To give you an idea ( granted this is a very small sample size) My trips to Atlantic City brought a lot more game selection with 4/8 and 3/6 running everywhere that I played. I made about 600 in total between the two trips, while playing limit poker. I wasn't keeping track of hours on those trips, but a rough estimate was likely 30-40 hours of play in total( i know I played tourneys and did other things, and they were both 4-day weekend trips.)

 04-17-2012, 01:32 PM #19 The Situation     Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: CA and Vegas Posts: 8,377 Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking? I have never been to a casino that "only" had 2-4 LHE. 4-8, 5-10, 6-12, 8-16 LHE are ubber common. Casinos always spread at least two of those games. Sorry, I can't believe you when you say, "i'd like to move up but there are no mid limit games". Sorry, I gotta throw the bs flag on that.
04-17-2012, 01:38 PM   #20

Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Phelps, NY
Posts: 1,002
Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by dgiharris Adding the cost of tips, rake, food, and travel expenses is all part of "poker" costs. Buying food and drinks at the casino is not the same as buying food at the supermarket. I'm not "hating" on OP, just trying to answer his question honestly. What would you prefer, an answer with no justification behind it? As for adding comps, that is a legit point, so if we add comps then we can subtract food costs by half and add \$315 to his winrate so we're talking \$460 over 9yrs which is still flatlined and statistically the same as breakeven.
two things about this, First we can use the Comps to buy gas (which is a huge deal for me) I am usually with a slots player that plays while I play poker for the most part, so we just pool our comps and use them for gas to go up and back. That being said, we still probably pay that much for gas (likely more) since we live 75 miles away from the casino.

As for food and drink, I can tell you for certain i have had food there at most five times. I bring snacks and stuff with me if I think I'm going to be there for a while (as in a tournament or something of that nature) and I will only get diet soda at a buck tip.

Like I said before, this all comes down to the definition of the term beatable. Even putting in all the costs that you have mentioned, i still have a win-rate, albeit very tiny. That means, in my opinion, the game is beatable.

04-17-2012, 01:42 PM   #21

Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Phelps, NY
Posts: 1,002
Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by dgiharris I have never been to a casino that "only" had 2-4 LHE. 4-8, 5-10, 6-12, 8-16 LHE are ubber common. Casinos always spread at least two of those games. Sorry, I can't believe you when you say, "i'd like to move up but there are no mid limit games". Sorry, I gotta throw the bs flag on that.
The brush that normally works there when I go up knows my voice when I call, they automatically put an interest list up for 3-6 and 5-10 when they know I'm coming because i request it and it never gets off the ground.

We aren't talking Vegas, we aren't talking CA, were talking the middle of nowhere NY.

04-17-2012, 05:23 PM   #22
journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 248
Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by dgiharris Adding the cost of tips, rake, food, and travel expenses is all part of "poker" costs.
I think its OK not to worry about food and travel costs for a rec player, whose just using his win rate as a way to keep score. (I think that is what you are doing MNOWAX, but I am not trying to speak for you.)

Even comparing poker to a job, I would think of my salary as what my employer pays me. I would not factor in commuting costs, or the costs of eating lunch out, daycare if applicable, etc.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by dgiharris I have never been to a casino that "only" had 2-4 LHE. 4-8, 5-10, 6-12, 8-16 LHE are ubber common. Casinos always spread at least two of those games. Sorry, I can't believe you when you say, "i'd like to move up but there are no mid limit games". Sorry, I gotta throw the bs flag on that.
Your bs flag has been challenged and overturned by video replay. Look at bravo poker (not sure where it is online, I have the iphone app) and you'll see how few places have choices in LHE games today. Even last time I was in Vegas 3 years ago, I could not find any LHE games between 4/8 and 15/30 anywhere in town.

 04-17-2012, 06:16 PM #23 Carpal \'Tunnel   Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: SI, NY Posts: 11,261 Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking? I'm from the East Coast so I'm sure it makes a difference, but I agree with DGIHarris here, I never see rooms that don't offer a number of different Limit stakes. They're less prevalent of course, because no terrible recreational players are going to play 15/30, but they are around.
04-17-2012, 06:46 PM   #24
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Villain
Posts: 4,860
Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb no terrible recreational players are going to play 15/30
lol, wrong

 04-17-2012, 07:16 PM #25 The Situation     Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: CA and Vegas Posts: 8,377 Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking? Cltrich, you are smoking some nice crystal meth is you think I believe that you couldn't find any 4-8 or 5-10 LHE in Vegas. Tell you what, list the name and location of these so called casinos that only spread 2-4 LHE and don't spread a mid limit game and I'll call them right now and confirm that you are right.
04-17-2012, 07:36 PM   #26
journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 248
Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by dgiharris Cltrich, you are smoking some nice crystal meth is you think I believe that you couldn't find any 4-8 or 5-10 LHE in Vegas. Tell you what, list the name and location of these so called casinos that only spread 2-4 LHE and don't spread a mid limit game and I'll call them right now and confirm that you are right.
There were lots of places to play 4/8. There was 15/30 at Bellagio. There was nothing in between. I realize that was 3 years ago and today there would be a 10/20 at Bellagio.

As far as my casino list, please keep in mind that I'm sure all of them will run almost any game you want if you can get a table full of people to play it. I just wouldn't recommend you invest the time to put your name on an interest list and hope others come.

Rivers Casino Pittsburgh - 4/8 (admittedly this is the only one on my list I have ever played at)
Meadows , Washington PA - 2/4 (although once in a blue moon they'll get a 3/6)
Hollywood, Charles Town WV - 3/6
other 3 poker rooms in WV -2/4
Harrah's Cherokee, NC - 3/6
Turning Stone, NY - 2/4 (according to MNOWAX)

That's enough for now.

Last edited by cltrich; 04-17-2012 at 07:45 PM.

 04-17-2012, 07:53 PM #27 Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Mar 2011 Location: 12 hr. Cashouts w/BTC.....F the DOJ Posts: 3,562 Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking? Ive been to dozens of casinos around the country that only have one limit game, like 3/6. I've only seen two that had anything over 4/8. I'm sure thats not the case in Vegas, but it seems standard everywhere else. Last time I was in Vegas I stayed at the Nugget for a day or two and all they had was 2/4 and 3/6 running.
04-18-2012, 03:02 AM   #28

Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 894
Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by dgiharris Cltrich, you are smoking some nice crystal meth is you think I believe that you couldn't find any 4-8 or 5-10 LHE in Vegas. Tell you what, list the name and location of these so called casinos that only spread 2-4 LHE and don't spread a mid limit game and I'll call them right now and confirm that you are right.
LOL at this. The truth is the majority of casinos in Las Vegas don't even spread limit, period. Those that do are almost all 2/4 LHE with NO higher stakes. For confirmation see "Status of Las Vegas Poker, Winter 2012" in the 2+2 mag. Or look up Bravo Live Poker. On the strip, the only casino spreading various stakes limit games is Bellagio- 4/8, 10/20, 20/40+. Venetian has 4/8 LHE- their 8/16 game has essentially died. Slim pickings indeed.

04-18-2012, 11:17 AM   #29
journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 248
Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb I'm from the East Coast so I'm sure it makes a difference, but I agree with DGIHarris here, I never see rooms that don't offer a number of different Limit stakes. They're less prevalent of course, because no terrible recreational players are going to play 15/30, but they are around.
I'd be interested to know what rooms you are talking about . The only rooms I'm aware of on the east coast that regularly spread LHE above 4/8 would be Parx, Bellagio, and Foxwoods. If there are more I'd like to know about them.

04-18-2012, 11:34 AM   #30

Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Pennsylvania
Posts: 1,161
Re: What level of B&M LHE is beatable, mathematically speaking?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by dgiharris I have never been to a casino that "only" had 2-4 LHE. 4-8, 5-10, 6-12, 8-16 LHE are ubber common. Casinos always spread at least two of those games.
They may be willing to spread those games, but don't have the player base to sustain them. Consequently they will "only" have 2-4 LHE.

I'd love to play 3-6 or 4-8 as my "Regular" LHE game at my local place, but whenever we get a long enough list at those limits (rarely), as a rule the floor will not open it unless they have several solid 2-4 games.

Reason being that it will usually break that game, which will remain healthier longer. I don't like it, but I can't say I blame them. The player pool at the higher limit just isn't there.

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