Quote:
Originally Posted by Olaff
1. Great post, Sir. You meant Kx (no Qx), right? Anyhow, if we don't pick up anything OTT and he checks, what % of the time would you check back? Also, what influence what kind of card the blank turn is has on whether you fire? Basically please describe the turn "blank" range you're more or less likely to fire on.
2. What happens if he leads turn and we blanked?
3. What happens if he leads turn and we picked up something?
Uh... yea I meant Kx, brain fart.
1. Lets say an A comes on the turn (no diamond) and he checks. This is most of the time a trap card. There's not too many Ax floats in our range and he will almost always be check calling here. A lot of players who turn the A will also opt to check the A to us hoping we bet or expecting to get one more street of value on the river. I would typically just check and give up the hand on A turns if checked to us. Most of villains turn check range is weighted towards Ax, Kx, and pocket pairs.
Lets say a JQT comes off. If he checks to us, I still typically try to check back as it telegraphs that we have showdown hand and we're just pot controlling. If he checks a blank river, I will always fire what looks like a value bet as our line of having Kx here is very reasonable. The reason I don't fire TJQ is that Kx, will check call here, AT, AJ, AQ, will typically also opt to check call giving us a difficult decision on the river to fire or not, and sometimes they hit and we're just bluffing into a very strong range. If the river blanks after a TJQ turn, we are only repping a very narrow value range if we fire the river making it actually easier for villain to call us lighter. Villain should expect Kx to only go for 2 streets, so firing 3 streets on that board texture, we're repping 2 pair (a very specific broadway 2 pair) or a set.
Almost everything else 9 or under is a pretty good place to barrel though and should work a pretty high % of the time.
If a 6 or 7 peels on the turn, I still fire for protection, and typically check all non 2 pair rivers as villain should typically have Kx or a mid to high pocket pair on the turn and its tough to fold out the river. Of course, we go for reasonable value if we river our 6 or 7.
2. If he leads turn and we blanked, its easy. We fold. Calling is never an option. If we raise, we're pretty much repping ONLY 2 pair or a set so if you think you can get away with it, go for it. But even with 2 pair, its really not likely that we have it i mean cmon, K8? 83? K3? So we're pretty much repping 88 or 33 or a turned set.
3. If he leads turn and we hit a draw, we call. If we hit a 6 or 7, we fold. Like I mentioned earlier, a player who barrels 2 streets has a pretty strong range and we should be getting paid off on most rivers that we hit so implied odds are greatly at work especially since our backdoor draws are very disguised. If we miss river and he checks, I think its typically -EV to try to bluff river vs a 2 barrel range. I'm okay with giving up with no chance to win the pot.