Weak Flushdraw on 3-flush flop vs Allin-bet - Poker Theory

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Weak Flushdraw on 3-flush flop vs Allin-bet

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02-18-2017 , 11:26 AM

avg1

newbie

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 29

I have JT-offsuit (ten is heart) on a 3-flush flop A53 (all hearts), facing a check-raise allin getting 2.2-to-1. I believe it's very likely my opponent has toppair here, since he has a very low bluffing frequency. My opponent's range is likely top 5 to 30%(88,AJ-22,J8s) I'm a 1.9-to-1 to get a flush, but I'm not drawing to the nuts, so I have reversed implied odds here. How would I proceed to find my actual odds here?

I Guess the answer might be a lot of algebra. But maybe someone has some "short-cuts" to finding this out...

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02-18-2017 , 12:19 PM

Shamway99

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 3,348

There are no reverse implied when hand is AI.
No lot of algebra, simple formula Eq=betsize/final pot. When your equity against expected range is higher just call.

Practicaly your hand is garbage and easy fold.

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02-18-2017 , 12:46 PM

statmanhal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,987

JxTh has about 43% equity against villain’s stated 5%-30% range with given flop. With pot odds of 2.2 to 1 you need showdown equity of 1/3.2 =32%, so on a strict math-based EV analysis, a call of the all-in bet is justified. Even if villain had top pair with A2o+, A2s+, SD eq = 35%, so a call would be ok.

So, two responses – one fold, one call. Who’s right?

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02-18-2017 , 12:56 PM

Shamway99

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 3,348

As always "it depends"

Here it depends on V's betting range.

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02-18-2017 , 01:16 PM

avg1

newbie

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 29

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shamway99

Thank you for Your brilliant answer. It's of course no reverse implied odds when AI. My mistake, sorry.

When you say Eq= betsize/final pot; then it's my Equity we're calculating?

So final pot= the potsize when my opponent is allin + effective bet that I have to Call. Have I understood correctly?

V's betting range is toppair and better.

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02-18-2017 , 01:26 PM

avg1

newbie

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 29

Quote:

Originally Posted by statmanhal

Thank you for Your very good answer. In the long run I will sometimes be drawing dead against V's AJ, J of hearts and already Made flush, and sometimes Villain will have a set and outdraw me even when I get my flush. So the 1.9-to-1 I need will in the long run not be sufficient. So what would?

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02-18-2017 , 02:37 PM

Shamway99

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 3,348

Quote:

Originally Posted by avg1

When you say Eq= betsize/final pot; then it's my Equity we're calculating?

Yes e.g. AI is potsize. Now you call pot and final pot is 3xp (original pot+bet+call). Equity needed to call is 1/3=33%.

Maybe I said fold too strictly, what made me vote for fold was the hand does not beat bluffs (most bluffs are K/QdX that crush the hand).

Also note that when it is tourmament with ICM the formula cannot be precise and EqNeeded is always bit (or much) higher than for cash game.

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