Quote:
Originally Posted by starseeker12001
it seems to me the wrong questions are being asked - don't you mean reduce variance ? what you really want to play a game where you show your hands pre flop and split out the pot based on probability.....don't be silly
you may as well say that your A-A deserves to win everytime and it doesn't because xx% of the time it deserves to lose, are you expecting a 100% win rate on A-A ??
I'd suggest you need to learn how to deal with variance as opposed to killing it and if variance affects you so much then your variance will increase significantly has you go on tilt
several ways of reducing variance are dependent on your own style and the style of the players you're up against eg opp tight passive, you aren't going to exp. much variance (assuming you have learnt to lay down your hand after a big re-raise from them because they have A-A). If you want to increase your variance (and as other poster mentioned, potentially significantly increase your profit, assuming you can cope with variance) then play a LAG style.
you also may want to think about playing less of a pre flop game, if I'm live deep stacked cash game and pick up A-A, I'm not thinking about manipulating the pot or my opponents to get all the money in pre-flop just to get killed by somone getting a lucky two pair etc, as I'm not prepared to risk 500 or 600 BB's on one pair. If you are on-line with 50BB's and multi-tabling then sure go for it.....
to answer the other question 'how long does variance last for' or how long do you run bad, well that's very dependent on how often you are playing eg on-line every day multi tabling or live once a month
winning poker players make themselves very aware of variance, how they handle it, what swings they should expect versus the style of opponents they are up against and how your own style is adjusting which affects variance
my advice would be to focus on winning the battle of mistakes and analysing how many mistakes you've made in an evening, if you're coming home thinking I only made a couple of mistakes or even none ! then you won't have to worry about variance because you'll be a winning poker player, whether your A-A's get cracked or not.
hope this is useful
s.
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I appreciate this line of thinking. Its something I'm working more on myself. For me, I'm looking at ways that chaos theory and variance are intertwined, and ways I can adjust to it. Currently, I'm on a short bankroll, and playing 1/2 NL. In the past, I've played as high as 5/10 NL, and 80/160 Limit, when bankroll was different.
What I notice at 1/2 NL, and what I'm trying to adjust for, if possible, is when several "bad" events happen in a row. Where I play, there is no shortage of fish, and they come in different sizes and shapes. However, while fish are great, I have noticed a phenomena where several of them can get lucky against you in the same session, and a lot of fish bites at once can kill a shark!
My losing sessions usually consist of a combination of factors that worked against me that day:
1. I may be running bad/card dead
2. I may be getting good drawing situations, pot odds, but miss
3. I may be getting it in good vs. a fish, but they suckout
4. I may get coolered, big hand vs. big hand
Where I find I have trouble on a per session basis, is when one or more of these factors start to work together against me. For example, I might start off running bad, playing patiently, but having to chase a couple good draws when the price is right. This leaks about 25% of my stack. Then I pick up a good hand, and get involved with a fish, have him make a mistake, and he sucks out. Now if he doesn't stack me, I then run into a cooler, or get in good with another fish and face another suckout.
Now if I buy in again, I have to decide if this table lineup will pay me back what I lost, or did I lose more than I can recoup here. This is key, I don't want to buy in to a table that won't pay me back, so I always re-evaluate this. Unfortunately, we've all been the victim of being sucked out by a fish, and then watching them distribute our chips rapidly to the other players at the table. Its painful.
Anyway, what I'm trying to work on, is reducing this kind of combined situational variance, so that I can stretch my short bankroll. Yes, its true, if I didn't have to worry about my roll, I could just keep buying in, getting it in good, and let the long run take care of the rest. I realize that's the right answer if my roll was unlimited (or at least fat enough) for the stake I play.
One style/gameplan I'm thinking of is to come in and nit it up for the first however long it takes to add lets say 25% to my stack. Then use that 25% cushion to take on a few more speculative hands like suited connectors and such in later positions. Then if I take a nice pot doing that, open my game wider to get closer to optimal style for the table I'm playing at the time. Yes this means I won't be playing "long term" optimally in the beginning of my session. But it helps me get to the long term by reducing my per session variance while my roll is short, and at least some of my session would be played optimally once I have some fish money added to my stack.
Thoughts, feedback are appreciated on this approach or other suggestions...
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