Two Plus Two Poker Forums theoretically, how do you reduce variance at the cost of value?
 Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read Video Directory TwoPlusTwo.com

 Notices

 Poker Theory General poker theory

 06-27-2012, 03:02 PM #1 centurion   Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 125 theoretically, how do you reduce variance at the cost of value? I would like to have a theoretical grounding for reducing my variance at the cost of value. Obviously I don't want to "fold anything but the nuts" and I do read the hands OK, but the problem is that my variance is too great, so even though I would love to take those odds a thousand times, the problem is I can take them ten times. I know the real answer is "get a bigger bankroll" or move down, but I'm asking theoretically whether there is another answer here. So is there some kind of theoretical foundation for playing with reduced variance? I would think this is also relevant to playing with a shortstack in a tournament - since a single all-in loss removes you from the tournament - but this is just a guess. Thanks. Last edited by RustyBrooks; 06-27-2012 at 04:31 PM.
 06-27-2012, 03:53 PM #2 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Austin, TX Posts: 14,950 Re: theoretically, how do you reduce variance at the cost of value? If you want to reduce variance, the typical method is "when you are not sure whether to call or fold, fold". If the decision is very close then the EV is close to 0, and the variance of calling will be larger. The earlier you fold, the better, so basically you can start by playing tighter. If your bluffs are very low earners (including meta-game) then you can consider reducing bluffing considerably also. Whether or not this is feasible depends on how tough your competition is (so does the folding method, of course, because observant opponents will bluff you more)
 06-27-2012, 03:54 PM #3 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Austin, TX Posts: 14,950 Re: theoretically, how do you reduce variance at the cost of value? Of course, you can also just get someone to buy part of your action.
06-27-2012, 03:56 PM   #4
centurion

Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 125
Re: theoretically, how do you reduce variance at the cost of value?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by RustyBrooks If you want to reduce variance, the typical method is "when you are not sure whether to call or fold, fold". If the decision is very close then the EV is close to 0, and the variance of calling will be larger. The earlier you fold, the better, so basically you can start by playing tighter. If your bluffs are very low earners (including meta-game) then you can consider reducing bluffing considerably also. Whether or not this is feasible depends on how tough your competition is (so does the folding method, of course, because observant opponents will bluff you more)
thanks - this is useful.

Last edited by RustyBrooks; 06-27-2012 at 04:31 PM.

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is OffTrackbacks are Off Pingbacks are Off Refbacks are Off Forum Rules

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:54 AM.

 Contact Us - Two Plus Two Publishing LLC - Privacy Statement - Top