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Old 06-27-2012, 03:02 PM   #1
centurion
 
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theoretically, how do you reduce variance at the cost of value?

I would like to have a theoretical grounding for reducing my variance at the cost of value. Obviously I don't want to "fold anything but the nuts" and I do read the hands OK, but the problem is that my variance is too great, so even though I would love to take those odds a thousand times, the problem is I can take them ten times. I know the real answer is "get a bigger bankroll" or move down, but I'm asking theoretically whether there is another answer here.

So is there some kind of theoretical foundation for playing with reduced variance? I would think this is also relevant to playing with a shortstack in a tournament - since a single all-in loss removes you from the tournament - but this is just a guess. Thanks.

Last edited by RustyBrooks; 06-27-2012 at 04:31 PM.
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Old 06-27-2012, 03:53 PM   #2
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Re: theoretically, how do you reduce variance at the cost of value?

If you want to reduce variance, the typical method is "when you are not sure whether to call or fold, fold". If the decision is very close then the EV is close to 0, and the variance of calling will be larger. The earlier you fold, the better, so basically you can start by playing tighter.

If your bluffs are very low earners (including meta-game) then you can consider reducing bluffing considerably also. Whether or not this is feasible depends on how tough your competition is (so does the folding method, of course, because observant opponents will bluff you more)
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Old 06-27-2012, 03:54 PM   #3
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Re: theoretically, how do you reduce variance at the cost of value?

Of course, you can also just get someone to buy part of your action.
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Old 06-27-2012, 03:56 PM   #4
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Re: theoretically, how do you reduce variance at the cost of value?

Quote:
Originally Posted by RustyBrooks View Post
If you want to reduce variance, the typical method is "when you are not sure whether to call or fold, fold". If the decision is very close then the EV is close to 0, and the variance of calling will be larger. The earlier you fold, the better, so basically you can start by playing tighter.

If your bluffs are very low earners (including meta-game) then you can consider reducing bluffing considerably also. Whether or not this is feasible depends on how tough your competition is (so does the folding method, of course, because observant opponents will bluff you more)
thanks - this is useful.

Last edited by RustyBrooks; 06-27-2012 at 04:31 PM.
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