Theoretical Preflop Situation - Looking for Formula - Poker Theory

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Theoretical Preflop Situation - Looking for Formula

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12-15-2016 , 08:36 AM

PLAYTOLIVE

journeyman

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 215

Ok this is a theoretical situation in a 1/2NL Full Ring game.

UTG Limps for $2 (100bb's)
UTG +1 Calls (HERO Who has 33's)(100bb's)
MP1 Folds
MP2 Folds
MP3 Raises to $12 (40BB's)
CO Folds
BTN Folds
SB Folds
BB Folds

UTG Calls $10
UTG +1 3Bet's to $80
Pot $105 and its $68 for MP3 to call effectively putting him all in.

MP3 PFR is 25%, let assume UTG never calls this 3Bet and that MP3 will only call with AQ+/99+. How profitable is this shove? Am I missing any information in the explanation?

Thanks

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12-15-2016 , 12:53 PM

statmanhal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,987

I get the pot is 29 before hero's bet of 78 for a total pot of 107. If MP3 raised with top 25% and calls hero's shove only with AQ+/99+, then he will fold 80% of the time. Hero's 33 has 34.5% card equity vs V call range.

The EV equation is

EV= 0.80*29 + 0.20*(0.345*97 -0.655*78)= 19.5

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12-15-2016 , 02:55 PM

whosnext

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 6,733

To follow up on statmanhal's post, to generalize the situation OP may want to add a variable for MP3's initial raise range (top X pct, say). Then that variable, of course, enters the EV equation.

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12-15-2016 , 03:11 PM

statmanhal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,987

Quote:

Originally Posted by whosnext

To follow up on statmanhal's post, to generalize the situation OP may want to add a variable for MP3's initial raise range (top X pct, say). Then that variable, of course, enters the EV equation.

OP hypothesized a 25% initial raise range and I used that to determine his call/fold probabilities. Are you thinking something else?

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12-15-2016 , 03:19 PM

whosnext

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 6,733

I was only saying that PFR is a "global" stat which may or may not be tweaked in this exact situation. But, obviously, no big deal.

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12-15-2016 , 03:32 PM

statmanhal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,987

OK. So your extra is the tweak, not the PFR.

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12-16-2016 , 10:40 AM

PLAYTOLIVE

journeyman

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 215

Quote:

Originally Posted by whosnext

To follow up on statmanhal's post, to generalize the situation OP may want to add a variable for MP3's initial raise range (top X pct, say). Then that variable, of course, enters the EV equation.

Please elaborate further, possibly with an example or extension of the given example with youre variables added.

thanks

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