This was strictly a theoretical situation (not from game play) as I'm trying to get a better idea of which hands can continue in three bet pots.

Cutoff (Hero) opens to 3bbs, BB raises to 10bbs, Hero calls. Pot = 20.5bbs.
BB cbets 12 bbs on flop:

C bet = 12bbs
Minimum defense = 40% (37% rounded up to allow for equity)
Flop comes: K 9 8

Total combos in our range: 122
Desired combos defended: 50

[0] Value Raise Range:

[0] Bluff Raise Range:

[49] Calling range: K9o(9), KQs(3), KJs(3), K10s(3), 88, (6), 99(6), 89s(3), FD(8), J10s(4), 67s(4)

For preflop calling range from CO vs. BB 3bet I'm using the following range (from upswing poker):
TT-44,AQo-AJo,KQo,AQs-A9s,A5s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s


In this case to continue with 50 combos I first thought of raising my sets and two pairs, but I quickly realized that if I were to balance this with bluffs I'd either be defending far more than 50 combos or I would have to be folding my top pair hands. This didn't seem right. So I moved everything to my call range which balanced out ok. I am still folding hands that I might normally peel one street with (such as 9-10s with the BDFD) but maybe this is ok.

Does the fact that I don't have a raising range here indicate that villain is making a mistake (either with continuing or bet sizing)? I noticed this flop hits my range very strong against the "upswing 3bet from bb vs CO open range" (AA-TT,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,84s,76s-74s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s,32s).

Let me know what you think, thank you!

Minimum defense is imo a bad estimate and leads to bad play. Thee optimal continuation frequency heavily depends on all ranges involved and board texture. It will quite different across textures.

The minimum defense frequency would only hold if Villain had a perfect polarized range where his bluffs have 0% equity.

I don't think K9o should be in your flatting range. K9s is pretty marginal vs that 3b sizing as well. In addition, I think QQ/JJ should often be calls rather than 4-bets as well, but I'm not in the mood to argue with the Upswing charts.

With a slightly different flatting range, you can profitably continue with something like 55% of hands on the flop, and you can have a raising range on the flop if you use mixed strats. 99/88 and flush draws can/should be raised at least some of the time imo.
It's a pretty good board for the CO to continue on. He can fold stuff like JJ/TT and any Ax without a backdoor FD, but he's got enough Kx, sets and draws to peel at a pretty high frequency. Remember that the M in MDF stands for minimum. In position on good boards, you can/should profitably continue much wider. e.g. If the flop had been a JT8r, CO probably only folds 30%.

Thanks guys. One thing I want to clarify- I am trying to work through Janda's examples so I get a better understanding of what he's talking about and the basics of range building. I understand that there are other variables that will impact continuation ranges (position, range equity, and how wet or dry the flop is for example). And I truly appreciate you talking about how you would adjust from these starting points in practice. At the same time I'm still working on thinking about what the starting point of his exercise would be.

BigFreddy, I do think that BB would be pretty polarized when he bets in this particular case. He would have some top sets/AA/AK hands which are way ahead of my marginal hands, and he would have some semi-bluffs which would usually become nuts or nothing. Nothing is totally polarized, I was just noticing that it does seem like it's more polarized than normal when he 3 bets then c-bets. Do you disagree? If so please let me know, I'm new to this!

Arty, thank you for the reply! I actually didn't have K9 in my flatting range. Maybe I mistyped or you misread. Anyway, I also agree with you that upswing's hand ranges aren't 'solved' or perfect by any stretch. Again, for now it allows me to start playing with these ideas without questioning my ranges every time I dive in. Per your recommendation I reconfigured my continuation range to allow for defending more than the 40% (which as Fred said is only a 'minimum'). Take a look below.

If I value raised my sets and two pairs, along with nut flush draws, then I can bluff with many straight draws as well. I would be calling with my top pairs and some straight/flush draws. I looked at a number of different turn cards that could come and it seems like I am pretty well defended against anything.

Thoughts?

Cutoff open, BB three bets, Cutoff calls.
BB c-bets. 20.5 bbs in pot (90 bbs remaining effective)
Bet = 12bbs
Minimum defense = 40% *ACTUAL DEFENSE* 53%
Flop comes: Kc 9h 8h

Total combos in our range: 122
Desired combos defended: 65

[13] Value Raise Range: 99(3), 88(3), 89(3), NFD (4)
[18] Bluff Raise Range: J10s(3), 67s(3), BDNFD(5), QJs(3), Q10s(3), 78c(1)
[34] Calling range: KQo(9), KQs(3), KJs(3), K10s(3), FD(4), 10-10(6), A9s(3), 10-9s(s)

If villain bets B into a pot of P, the MDF is P/(P+B). For OP’s example, P=20.5 and B = 12, so, MDF = 20.5/32.5 = 0.63 ~60%. One of us (OP or me) has it backwards.

You're right. I had it backwards. Thank you.

Just goes to show that Arty was right on even without noticing my mistake. That's how you get to Mod status.

In regards to the math it is wrong unless on the flop is 1 street of play.

Take a look at steve paul's videos on RIO for MDF & Bluff & Value Ratio to get a better understanding.
^Once you understand these concepts you can better go about trying to construct ranges by hand

Using flopzilla is only really good to see how ranges interact and visualizing ranges which is very important and is time way better spent then doing this IMO, not so good for trying to construct nash equil ranges/sims.

How do you have 6 combinations each of 88 and 99 on a K98 board?