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 05-27-2012, 06:54 PM #1 enthusiast   Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 81 is this a statistical anomaly? This guy I know says he played 4 tournaments at the WSOP last year and claims that every hand he was knocked out with, he was a 96% and above odds on favorite. Says he got a suckout every time. When I asked him to describe the hands at one of the poker games we play at, he got really defensive towards me and wouldn't answer the question. Is this a statistical anomaly? This is worse than having AA losing to AK 4 times.
 05-27-2012, 07:27 PM #2 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Austin, TX Posts: 14,931 Re: is this a statistical anomaly? If you consider the question "what is the chance of losing 4 times as a 96% favorite, if those are the only games you ever play", then the answer (via the binomial distribution) is .00025% There are many many problems with this. 1. Consider the difference between "what is the chance that my next 2 flips are both heads" and "what is the chance that in all future flips, I will have at least 1 two in a row streak?". For the first, the answer is 1/4, for the 2nd it's basically 100%. If he's played dozens or hundreds of tournaments, the chance of such a streak is MUCH higher than if he only played the 4. See what I mean? 2. you can often partition the data available to you in a way that makes it seem less likely. 3. people lie to themselves. I have seen it every day. He probably doesn't remember the details of the hand and by the time he got around to writing it down or simulating it, had mentally modified it to be more favorable to himself. I have literally watched people do this. (If he even knew what outs his opponent really had, I have also seen people say "that was the only card in the deck you can win with", when actually I had many other outs that would have worked. Often they appear to really believe this and it tilts them. It's weird.
 05-27-2012, 08:15 PM #3 journeyman   Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 399 Re: is this a statistical anomaly? Buzz's #3 is the most likely answer. It's set over setting somebody four times in a row and having them beat you with quads all four times. Buzz's #1 and #2 are also very true but I'll tell you if this actually happened your mate should at least consider the possibility that he was cheated (though, especially given your description, I'd guess he's just lying/mis-remembering).
05-27-2012, 08:45 PM   #4
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 14,931
Re: is this a statistical anomaly?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by WheelDraw1020 Buzz's #3
LOL, why do I get mistaken for Buzz so often?

 05-27-2012, 10:31 PM #5 journeyman   Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 399 Re: is this a statistical anomaly? :embarrassed: my bad.
 05-29-2012, 03:51 PM #6 enthusiast   Join Date: May 2010 Location: colorado Posts: 58 Re: is this a statistical anomaly? people are lying all the time at the poker table obv lol...
 05-29-2012, 07:48 PM #8 enthusiast   Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 81 Re: is this a statistical anomaly? Thank you for the answers guys! Appreciate the detailed responses. I am not an expert in poker theory but the guy kept mentioning this on facebook and at the table that he was a 95% favorite in all 4 tournaments and I had to call him out on it. He is a real douche at the table and he claims that he didn't play well at our tournament( he was eliminated in 4th place of a 18 player tourney) because I "tilted" him with that question and I messed up his game lol.

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