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shoving vs. calling with huge draw OTF shoving vs. calling with huge draw OTF

12-11-2014 , 05:55 AM
Scenario
Hero and Villain both are 100bb deep.
Hero bets 3bb pre and gets called by one villain (who was in the SB), rest folds. Pot is now 8bb (2 bb from the BB that folded).
We flop the inside straight flush draw and cbet 6bb, villain reraises to 20bb (pot is now at 34bb).
Lets assume we have to hit either our straight or flush to win the hand and if we dont hit we loose.
We have to call 14bb into a pot of 34bb (so we need to have more than 41,2% equity to win money) but we are only drawing on 25,5% with just one card to come (coz if we dont hit on the turn villain will bet for sure and we have to do EV calcs and thinking again and situation gets even more complex so lets just decide on the flop!)

EV(calling)=34bb*25,5%-14bb*(1-25,5%)=-1,76bb

If we fold our EV would be 0 obviously.

But if we reraise all-in we can expect him to fold atleast some times and ofc it now strongly depends on what we think how often he will fold.
Additionally we will have two cards to come and we have therefore a 44,9% chance to hit one of our winning draws.

EV(shove)=0,5*34bb+0,5(0,449*102bb-(1-0,449)*91bb) (we win 102 bb 44,9% and lose 1-44,9% our 91bb that we raised to) = +1,48 bb

If we expect him to fold only 20% of the time we have to tweak the number a little bit. Initially I thought our EV will be lower because he calls more often and wins statistically a little bit more often than we do, but in fact our EV is higher than before.

EV=0,2*34bb+0,8*(0,449*102bb-(1-0,449)*91bb)=+3,32bb

We are hitting 0 EV when he is folding around 12-13% of the time and if he is never folding than our EV is -4,34bb

Basically shoving here is way superior to calling as long as he is folding more than ~5%!
shoving vs. calling with huge draw OTF Quote
12-11-2014 , 06:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pybox
(2 bb from the BB that folded).
Why would the BB put out 2bb?

Quote:
We have to call 14bb into a pot of 34bb (so we need to have more than 41,2% equity to win money)
No. By that logic, we would need >50% equity if he raised to 30bb. As soon as you find a situation where you need more than 50% equity to call, you can be sure something your math is wrong.

In this example, you need to call 14bb into a pot that would be 48bb on the turn. Therefore you need 29.2% equity to make the call.

I don't want to be rude, but it might help if you go all the way back to the basics of odds and outs to gain a better understanding.
shoving vs. calling with huge draw OTF Quote
12-11-2014 , 07:17 AM
ah okay for the pot odds you are probably right. i have to include my own bet/call into the size of the pot therefore my equity is indeed only 29,2% but my EV calculation should still be right eventhough it has to be tweaked a little bit because obviously i meant the BB folded just 1bb and not 2bb. (because in my EV calculation i do not count my own money towards my wins and just the pot size w/o my moneys)

i meant the bb folded his 1bb not 2bb...

To correct the numbers on my given scenario (now with the 1bb from the BB that folded pre).

Pre Pot: 7bb
Flop action: 6bb bet, 20bb reraise

EV(calling) = 33bb*25,5%-14bb*(1-25,5%)=-2,02bb
EV(shoving; 50%foldequity)=0,5*33bb+0,5(0,449*101bb-(1-0,449)*91bb) (we win 101 bb 44,9% and lose 1-44,9% our 91bb that we raised to) = +14,1 bb
EV(shoving; 20%foldequity)=+2,76bb

Last edited by Pybox; 12-11-2014 at 07:44 AM.
shoving vs. calling with huge draw OTF Quote
12-11-2014 , 04:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pybox
Scenario
EV(shove)=0,5*34bb+0,5(0,449*102bb-(1-0,449)*91bb) (we win 102 bb 44,9% and lose 1-44,9% our 91bb that we raised to) = +1,48 bb
Still something wrong in my calculation! Iam sorry for that! Obviously we win 110bb with shoving (since there are also 9 bb of us in the pot that we can just win back because its kinda locked). which makes the calc even a lil bit more favoured for us:
Updates numbers:

EV(calling)=33bb*25,5%-14bb*(1-25,5%)=-2,02bb
EV(shove)=0,5*33bb+0,5(0,449*110bb-(1-0,449)*91bb) (we win 110 bb 44,9% and lose 1-44,9% our 91bb that we raised to) = +16,1 bb
EV=0,2*33bb+0,8*(0,449*101bb-(1-0,449)*91bb)=+6,1bb
shoving vs. calling with huge draw OTF Quote
12-11-2014 , 09:25 PM
when i have 45% equity draw 100bb deep, i usually just 3bet/4bet/5bet get it in, close my eyes, and start praying to poker gods.
shoving vs. calling with huge draw OTF Quote
12-12-2014 , 03:18 PM
what about when were 200+ deep and if we make an over shove where we are only getting called by sets or maybe over pairs depending on texture.
prob still profitable cuz the fold equity of top pair hands goes up but equity when called is way worse but happening way less
shoving vs. calling with huge draw OTF Quote
12-14-2014 , 07:54 AM
My understanding (albiet simple) is that getting it in as a less than 50% is never the correct play.
What kinds of hands are people actually going to stack off with?
If you flop a flush draw +gutshot you're still behind any overpair
if you get it all in with 2 overs and a flush draw youre way behind a set/2p
a straight flush draw is a 40% underdog if anyone has a higher flush draw and only a 54% fav to an overpair


Thats of course assuming villain is never folding, so his tendencies are a huge factor. If you know villain is not the type to fold TP, you're much better off folding or chasing the draw if you can cheaply IMO.

The numbers change a bit in a multiway pot, and going in as a 40% chance vs 2-3 opponents is sick +EV (when does that happen?)

RR with draws becomes much more profitable when you're doing it vs people who have bluffs in their range due to the added fold equity. Doing it purely to get it all in vs made hands seems quite -EV unless youre shoving all in with a Straight flush draw, which is generally a fav.

LMK if im viewing this incorrectly
shoving vs. calling with huge draw OTF Quote
12-14-2014 , 11:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordPallidan12
My understanding (albiet simple) is that getting it in as a less than 50% is never the correct play.
You correct yourself later in the post somewhat but this is obviously not true. If villain folds enough of the time to more than compensate (or even exactly compensate in some instances) our equity deficit AND we're the one to make the last bet/raise in order to generate such fold equity then then it is perfectly reasonable to get it in with less than 50% equity heads up.
shoving vs. calling with huge draw OTF Quote
12-14-2014 , 01:51 PM
I like to shove nut flush draws on the flop for obvious reasons..

I am less hesitant to shove a 9 high flush draw for obvious reasons...

Sometimes the Ace wins without the flush anyway. Anyway, I don't generally play suited connectors versus raises for obvious reasons. Not a fan of mid-suited connectors. Ace high flush draw I'm pretty happy about.
shoving vs. calling with huge draw OTF Quote

      
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