Ignoring folding to avoid variance, should you ever do it?

Ex:
Hero: 2h2s
Villain: AcKc
Board: 7c8c9d
Villain goes all in on the flop and shows Hero his hand

Hero Equity: 42.4%
Villain Equity: 57.6%

it depends of course on PF action, stack sizes, table dynamics and value of pot, pos in tournament, cash or tournament for that matter

Why would it matter if Villain shows hero his hand?

Hero is getting exactly the correct odds to call.

Why would it matter if Villain shows hero his hand?

Pot value is standard. Both players playing at stakes they can afford and are both utilizing correct bankroll management.

Cash game.

In that case we can forget the cards, draws, and all that. In regards to this hand it doesn't matter what we do, since both decisions have the same $EV.

The question can be reduced to just "should you take a neutral EV gamble?" and the answer depends entirely on the game situation - stack sizes, player skill differences and such. You can come up with examples where it's a clear yes and some where it's a clear no.

For example if hero is deep with a donating fish, we won't take it, but if only the fish is deep and hero is not, we'll snapcall.

In a tournament (outside rebuy period) it's practically always a fold (but villain should have their hand killed for showing it anyway).

@ - gasbreakhonk

i suppose i didnt realise you were playing imaginary hand in dreamland,
what i mean is, whats the position, how many handed it is was it limped pre, was it 3b pre

if your asking wether calling underpair vs overs n FD id do it @ HU hyper turbo level, not at normal HU (unless he was shorter than 50% starting), not at 6m nor FR in sng or tourn and in cash if im rolled im going with my 22 on the understanding ive seen his cards and know im ahead

By saying hero is getting correct odds to call, do you mean villain is going EXACTLY all in with, say a $42.40 bet into a $57.60 pot?

If yes, this just simplifies down to a Monte Carlo fallacy. Its a coin flip. You win as much as you lose after 100,000 hands.

However, in the short term, the variance is huge. It's why you see pros on Poker After Dark run it 2 or 3 times when its a race situation.

Game theory also comes into question like the above poster stated. If you can exploit a players weakness very well, you may be better picking a different spot if you are playing this hand against him to better ensure you a profit. If this hand is with a super tough pro standing between you and a tourney 1st prize, you may make the 50/50 bet because your future chances to win the tourney will be greatly increased if you win, but if you fold, those chances may be greatly diminished.

If you have The Mathematics of Poker you should read pp. 76-84: a highly enlightening section which details optimal strategy with various stack sizes. E.g. With AA vs. an open-ended straight flush draw, the stack sizes dictate what is the optimal betting strategy. E.g. if both stacks are shortish it can be incorrect for both hands to bet a certain amount on the flop(!) because:

- If the aces bet it, the OESF draw can raise all-in and take advantage of his equity right now (OESF draw is about an 11:9 favourite over AA with 2 cards to come).
- If the OESF draw bets, the AA can merely call and, when the turn doesn't come a scare card, can ship it all with his newfound equity edge.

If you have the book I'd recommend you read this short section which deals with your question. If you don't have it I can provide a more thorough summary of it.

the decision to fold or call doesn't matter long term.
so it increases variance for no gain in EV, not great. Not terrible.
your decision on calling/folding here should be a personal decision. Is it more important for you to keep your variance down or "have a good time and gamble it up?"
If this was, somehow, relevant to a situation in-game you would base your decision on intangibles like how it will affect your image, the skill level of your opponents (you would probably rather fold vs bad player but maybe call at a table where you have little or no advantage, especially if you could possibly knock out a good player)

Do you enjoy flipping coins for cash?
I don't but you might.

So you're telling us it's correct to call, and you're asking us if it's correct to call? I don't understand what there is to learn from such a thread.

this.

/thread.