I am a regular at my local game and last time I went i had a chat with another regular, and he was adament about"K's and 10s" hit alot. At 1st i thought he was joking around and said oh stoppit and all that. He then eventually grew angry and said things like"you are smarter than that, lets bet then so i can teach you a lesson" I believed this man to be smart overall.. and thought there was some sort of catch, so i told him to wait till next game and I'll let him know.

The bet he offered me was this: Everyhand, whether we are in the hand or not, as long as there is a flop, the action doesnt matter, there just needs to be a flop for the bet to take place. If the flop brings any king or any 10 He gets paid $40. IF the flop does NOT provide a king or a ten, then i win $20. He told me we must do this the whole nights play or nothing. I didnt know what to do and told him to wait.. Should I ?

44/52 * 43/51 * 42/50 = 0.599 chance of it no K or T on the flop. So most of the time, there will be no K or T, but with the payout that he's offering you, you will get crushed.

I'm surprised this one threw you as it's so close to a common poker situation. Would you lay 2-1 to fade a flopped OESD? It's close, right? Now he gets an extra card to hit it for free. That's basically the situation.

of the top off my head I would estimate

upper bound: 8 "outs" on three cards at 2% per out: 8*3*2 = 48%
lower bound: flopping a pair+ with 2 holecards: 32%

The right number is somewhere in between, maybe in the middle, 40%.

Since you are offered 33% odds this is clearly a bad bet for you.

What the others have said. As soon as he made it $40 for him and $20 for you, you should have realized that he was angle-shooting you big time.

Thanks guys, hes not a "math guy" i can tell and i guess neither am I to this extent. He said"well i got 2 cards and i win and you gt a bunch, i just feel I should get something extra. I told him ill do $25 and he said sure, so ill be laying 25 for his 20, every hand. wll report back tuesday for those who are interested.

If flop comes KKT do you get caught for 3x amount?

Report back!

how does 40:20 prove his point?

if villain's not a degen idiot, and he's offering you correct odds, be wary of a scam