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Set over Set probability Set over Set probability

09-16-2014 , 09:32 AM
You're all wrong, they are three times every 11 minutes. See example:

Beat: Pokerstars World Record. 3 Set Over Set in only 11 minutes.

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Wow, Pokerstars has a really good software.
How to be cheated by pokerstars.3 Set Over Set in only 11 minutes:

*********** # 122 **************
PokerStars Zoom Hand #121387334451: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2014/09/11 14:21:12 ART [2014/09/11 13:21:12 ET]
Table 'Arp' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: xzdshr ($81.67 in chips)
Seat 2: Artb001 ($65.69 in chips)
Seat 3: LordRiverRat ($58.15 in chips)
Seat 4: TijsVerwest1 ($29.25 in chips)
Seat 5: matjaz401 ($50 in chips)
Seat 6: Ravishka ($104.19 in chips)
Seat 7: julio.jacob1 ($55.65 in chips)
Seat 8: bambucho_55 ($55.93 in chips)
Seat 9: due223 ($50.25 in chips)
Artb001: posts small blind $0.25
LordRiverRat: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to due223 [8c 8h]
TijsVerwest1: folds
matjaz401: folds
Ravishka: folds
julio.jacob1: folds
bambucho_55: folds
due223: raises $1 to $1.50
xzdshr: raises $3 to $4.50
Artb001: folds
LordRiverRat: folds
due223: calls $3
*** FLOP *** [Qc 8d Jd]
due223: checks
xzdshr: bets $5
due223: raises $9.50 to $14.50
xzdshr: raises $9.50 to $24
due223: raises $21.75 to $45.75 and is all-in
xzdshr: calls $21.75
*** FIRST TURN *** [Qc 8d Jd] [9c]
*** FIRST RIVER *** [Qc 8d Jd 9c] [7d]
*** SECOND TURN *** [Qc 8d Jd] [2s]
*** SECOND RIVER *** [Qc 8d Jd 2s] [4c]
*** FIRST SHOW DOWN ***
due223: shows [8c 8h] (three of a kind, Eights)
xzdshr: shows [Qs Qd] (three of a kind, Queens)
xzdshr collected $49.38 from pot
*** SECOND SHOW DOWN ***
due223: shows [8c 8h] (three of a kind, Eights)
xzdshr: shows [Qs Qd] (three of a kind, Queens)
xzdshr collected $49.37 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $101.25 | Rake $2.50
Hand was run twice
FIRST Board [Qc 8d Jd 9c 7d]
SECOND Board [Qc 8d Jd 2s 4c]
Seat 1: xzdshr (button) showed [Qs Qd] and won ($49.38) with three of a kind, Queens, and won ($49.37) with three of a kind, Queens
Seat 2: Artb001 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: LordRiverRat (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: TijsVerwest1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: matjaz401 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Ravishka folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: julio.jacob1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: bambucho_55 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: due223 showed [8c 8h] and lost with three of a kind, Eights, and lost with three of a kind, Eights

*********** # 130 **************
PokerStars Zoom Hand #121387228909: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2014/09/11 14:19:09 ART [2014/09/11 13:19:09 ET]
Table 'Arp' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: chiccco1990 ($63.72 in chips)
Seat 2: due223 ($30.59 in chips)
Seat 3: matjaz401 ($50 in chips)
Seat 4: Affenkaiser ($68.51 in chips)
Seat 5: vinegred ($49.25 in chips)
Seat 6: Anafim33 ($40.16 in chips)
Seat 7: Rezzet ($50.50 in chips)
Seat 8: butch83nl ($66.06 in chips)
Seat 9: bambucho_55 ($57.23 in chips)
due223: posts small blind $0.25
matjaz401: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to due223 [8c 8h]
Affenkaiser: raises $1 to $1.50
vinegred: folds
Anafim33: folds
Rezzet: folds
butch83nl: folds
bambucho_55: folds
chiccco1990: folds
due223: calls $1.25
matjaz401: folds
*** FLOP *** [8d Kc Qh]
due223: checks
Affenkaiser: bets $2.23
due223: raises $4.27 to $6.50
Affenkaiser: calls $4.27
*** TURN *** [8d Kc Qh] [4c]
due223: bets $11
Affenkaiser: calls $11
*** RIVER *** [8d Kc Qh 4c] [5h]
due223: bets $11.59 and is all-in
Affenkaiser: calls $11.59
*** SHOW DOWN ***
due223: shows [8c 8h] (three of a kind, Eights)
Affenkaiser: shows [Kh Ks] (three of a kind, Kings)
Affenkaiser collected $59.18 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $61.68 | Rake $2.50
Board [8d Kc Qh 4c 5h]
Seat 1: chiccco1990 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: due223 (small blind) showed [8c 8h] and lost with three of a kind, Eights
Seat 3: matjaz401 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: Affenkaiser showed [Kh Ks] and won ($59.18) with three of a kind, Kings
Seat 5: vinegred folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Anafim33 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Rezzet folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: butch83nl folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: bambucho_55 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

*********** # 173 **************
PokerStars Zoom Hand #121386781886: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2014/09/11 14:10:25 ART [2014/09/11 13:10:25 ET]
Table 'Arp' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: super125 ($58.16 in chips)
Seat 2: CheckmyID ($35.64 in chips)
Seat 3: due223 ($69.37 in chips)
Seat 4: Berndacle ($50.50 in chips)
Seat 5: 3d06 ($55.80 in chips)
Seat 6: Artb001 ($50 in chips)
Seat 7: Chocobo2008 ($50.11 in chips)
Seat 8: Spagiari ($50 in chips)
Seat 9: matjaz401 ($64.42 in chips)
CheckmyID: posts small blind $0.25
due223: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to due223 [4d 4h]
Berndacle: raises $0.75 to $1.25
3d06: folds
Artb001: folds
Chocobo2008: calls $1.25
Spagiari: folds
matjaz401: calls $1.25
super125: folds
CheckmyID: folds
due223: calls $0.75
*** FLOP *** [7h 8h 4s]
due223: checks
Berndacle: bets $3.50
Chocobo2008: calls $3.50
matjaz401: folds
due223: calls $3.50
*** TURN *** [7h 8h 4s] [6h]
due223: checks
Berndacle: bets $7.50
Chocobo2008: calls $7.50
due223: calls $7.50
*** RIVER *** [7h 8h 4s 6h] [7d]
due223: bets $57.12 and is all-in
Berndacle: calls $38.25 and is all-in
Chocobo2008: folds
Uncalled bet ($18.87) returned to due223
*** SHOW DOWN ***
due223: shows [4d 4h] (a full house, Fours full of Sevens)
Berndacle: shows [8c 8s] (a full house, Eights full of Sevens)
Berndacle collected $112.25 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $114.75 | Rake $2.50
Board [7h 8h 4s 6h 7d]
Seat 1: super125 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: CheckmyID (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: due223 (big blind) showed [4d 4h] and lost with a full house, Fours full of Sevens
Seat 4: Berndacle showed [8c 8s] and won ($112.25) with a full house, Eights full of Sevens
Seat 5: 3d06 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Artb001 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Chocobo2008 folded on the River
Seat 8: Spagiari folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: matjaz401 folded on the Flop
Set over Set probability Quote
09-16-2014 , 10:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by due223
You're all wrong, they are three times every 11 minutes. See example:

Beat: Pokerstars World Record. 3 Set Over Set in only 11 minutes.

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Wow, Pokerstars has a really good software.
How to be cheated by pokerstars.3 Set Over Set in only 11 minutes:
It appears to be a span of 71 hands you show there. So the chance this happens in any random series of 71 hands is about 4%. And that's assuming there aren't times in that span that we get 3+ players dealt pairs among the 9, so the chance is actually even slightly higher than I show here.

BINOMDIST(68,71,1-(1/96.09),TRUE) = 3.8%

It's trivially easy to cherry-pick tons of 1 in 27 events all over the place. Congrats for finding one.

World Record, LOL. This should happen literally thousands of times per day.

Last edited by NewOldGuy; 09-16-2014 at 10:27 AM.
Set over Set probability Quote
09-22-2014 , 06:16 PM
intresting.. (regarding sets..)

I have been in similar situation in live poker..

pf.. (I cant recall.. some raising perhaps.. nothing out of standars)

4 players to the flop.. I am first to act with top set & short (to max of average) stack.. I put it all in.. call.. call. (WTF?) .. call.. (double WTF?!?)

set, set, set, FD (A high I think or K high..)..

FD takes it down..

Last edited by Monsieur; 09-22-2014 at 06:21 PM. Reason: wrong quote
Set over Set probability Quote

      
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