Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 3
Hi,
I want to put forward a formula for calculating your bet size on the flop, should you decide to play a draw as a semi bluff. The formula is as follows:
x=(s(1/e)-p-s)/((1/e)+1)
x=optimal bet size
s=stack size
p=pot size
e=equity
The equation is intended to give you enough equity to jam profitably, should your bet be raised. Take the following example:
You're heads up on the flop, playing from the button. You have flopped a nut flush draw with 9 outs. Villain, having raised pre flop, C-bets, making the pot $10. You decide to raise as a semi bluff. You decide to use the formula to decide how much to bet:
Stack size=100
Pot size=10
equity= To calculate equity, I'm using David Solomon's formula. I think it was 1st published in Harrington on Hold'em Vol. 2. Basically, you multiply your outs by 4 and divide that by your outs minus 8. So:
e=9(4)/(9-8)=35%
We now plug our numbers into the formula:
x=(100(1/0.35)-10-100)/(1/0.35)+1
x=45.52
Therefore, I would advocate a raise of around $46 here, should you decide to semi bluff raise. Villain now has 3 options: fold, call, or raise. Should she decide to fold or raise, you turn a profit. Only a call becomes potentially profitable for your opponent. Even then, your draw could hit on the turn. And if not, the aggressive bet size might get you a free card to potentially hit the river.
Of course, the formula doesn't just have to be applied to raising situations. You can also lead out with a bet, although it would tend to be an usually large one. I see the best application being as a raise or check raise on the flop.
What do people think?
