* I had posted this originally in the Probability section with no results. Figure this is my next best option*

Going to Vegas and brining 3k for poker. Planning to play approx. 80 hours over the course of the week at 1/3 buying in max. So 10 BINs.

For STD Dev. I assume would be on the lower side as I play pretty TAG.

WR I have no idea as for live poker I have not put in a lot of hours at NL, would consider myself competent. Id approximate 5bb/hr

Will be moving up if success is had early to 2/5 after adding 1k. Doubt that factors in as I would move down if lost after that shot.

Any help in this would be great!

I think the posters in the other thread are right about the fact that you might not be able to use formulae that assume a normal distribution for this small of a number of hands. But I don't have other tools handy, so, we can look at the normal distribution and see.

So OK, let's say 80 hours, 5bb/hr win rate, and let's start with 50bb/hr standard deviation and see what that gets us.
http://rustybrooks.com/poker/bankrol...&Gogogo=Submit
So that gets you 750bb for a bankroll. I think that might be too low for stdev though, so maybe try 80...
Now we get 2000bb (20 buyins) which is probably more realistic.

However, this is a bankroll given the consideration that you're going to play, essentially, forever.

We can look at a different kind of calculator instead, such as
http://rustybrooks.com/poker/stats.h....x=&outside.x=
This one is basically saying, with a given win rate and stdev and # of hands, what are the chances of a particular statistical outcome. Note that I converted both WR and stdev to /100 instead of /hr by assuming 35 hands/hour.

This unhelpfully gives the probability of ending at worse than -1000bb as zero. I think this is because the chance is very small. HOWEVER, this calculator is not including the times you dipped below -1000 and came back. It's just saying that the chance of ending up worse than that is very low. If you look at the chance of ending up at -500 or worse, it's like 1.5%

I think this really shows the weakness of normal models for something like this, because I think the chance of losing 5 buyins is probably way more than 1.5%

I hope this gave you something to think about, but I'm sorry I can't give any actual answers.

Its quite a perfect non-answer as non-answers could come. Just wanted an estimate of the chances of ruin. Seems pretty low based on what you have provided.

The reason I ask this is due to the amount of money I have brought with me on a trip prior to this. I usually bring 2k for a week for poker. 2/4 times I have came down to ~500 but was always able to figure out life.

I wanted to see what the ROR would be of 3k which appears to be quite acceptable. Was hoping for 25% or below.

I think the chances of blowing through 10 buyins in 80 hours, without going on monkey tilt, are pretty low. Way lower than 25%.

Just what I like to hear! Thanks!