Hi, I played the below hand tonight, and my opponent shoved on the river.

The pot was 3604 and it cost me 2804 to call, so I was getting ~1.28:1, so I need 1/(1+1.28) = ~43.9% chance of winning if I'm calling for the entire pot. But, because I would inevitably be chopping the pot at best - there was a straight on the board - I need a >43.9% chance of winning.

My question is what is the exact chance I need of winning when I'm chopping, is it just 43.9%/2 = ~22%?

Thanks.

PokerStars - $27.40+$2.60|100/200 NL - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 16.02 BB
BTN: 15.63 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 8.93, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 121)
SB: 35.85 BB (VPIP: 16.19, PFR: 13.83, 3Bet Preflop: 7.27, Hands: 357)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T J

fold, SB raises to 2 BB, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop: (4 BB, 2 players) 3 A 2
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (4 BB, 2 players) 4
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (4 BB, 2 players) 5
SB bets 33.85 BB and is all-in, fold

When you are chopping at best, you are risking your bet to win half the pot. So if the pot is 3604 and you need to call 2804, then you are risking 2804 to win 1802 and therefore you need to split 1802/(2804+1802) = 60.877% of the time

Edit: that's actually not even right because you can't even win your opponent's bet. It's B/(B + .5P) where P is the size of the pot BEFORE he bets, not after. Because if you chop you get B back and so does he, you're just splitting up P.

Thanks for your reply. So I think that makes it 2804 / (2840+(0.5*800)) = 86.5%

In my OP I said the winning % I needed would be half of when I'm calling for the whole pot - this was a mistake and I meant would be double. This too was a mistake, but what I really meant.

Cheers.