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 07-18-2012, 06:22 PM #1 journeyman     Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: NO SET --> 3 BET Posts: 291 Right ranges to exploit villain. Hi guys, I'm kinda newbie and I know only the basics of GTO etc. I was wandering how you can determine the range you should use against other players with given stats (with the assumption they ain't gonna adjust). Are there optimal stats that are unexploitable? I mean: if villian is folding 100% to my 3-bet, and doesn't adjust, I would exploit him by 3-betting 100% of the time. Right? But what if he folds only 80%, 60%...? How can I determine if a given stat is "weak" and exploitable? I think that at my level (NL5) opponents aren't adjusting their ranges at all, because most of them are either TAGs multitableing or fishes. Which stats are the most profitable to exploit? How can I do that? Sorry if I was too generic Hope someone will resolve this doubt Thanks in advance
 07-18-2012, 07:52 PM #2 veteran   Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 2,640 Re: Right ranges to exploit villain. People definitely do adjust if you 3-bet 100%. Even multitablers and definitely fishes. They might not adjust optimally but they do change their play. It's practically impossible to say what stats* are unexploitable. However some are definitely exploitable. One technique is to calculate the EV of a 3bet assuming your EV is 0 when you're called (using villain's fold to 3bet stat as his folding frequency). These bluffs are sometimes called immediately profitable. Note that in reality you have some value even when you're called, so your actual EV is even higher. *There's a subtle issue here that people often forget. You can't exploit stats: you can only exploit tendencies. What I mean by that, is if someone has a 75% fold to 3bet you assume there's a 75% chance he folds to your 3bet. That assumption may not be justified. Maybe the 75% is based on a small sample. Or he folds based on their opponents 3bet stat and most opponents have a low 3bet leading him to (correctly) fold very often. If your 3bet stat is 8% vs. a 3% for the average 5NL population it might be unreasonable to expect that he will the same way against you as he does against he average 5NL villain.
07-19-2012, 02:01 AM   #3
grinder

Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: London, England
Posts: 450
Re: Right ranges to exploit villain.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ceorge Hi guys, I'm kinda newbie and I know only the basics of GTO etc. I was wandering how you can determine the range you should use against other players with given stats (with the assumption they ain't gonna adjust). Are there optimal stats that are unexploitable? I mean: if villian is folding 100% to my 3-bet, and doesn't adjust, I would exploit him by 3-betting 100% of the time. Right? But what if he folds only 80%, 60%...? How can I determine if a given stat is "weak" and exploitable? I think that at my level (NL5) opponents aren't adjusting their ranges at all, because most of them are either TAGs multitableing or fishes. Which stats are the most profitable to exploit? How can I do that? Sorry if I was too generic Hope someone will resolve this doubt Thanks in advance
There's a formula for that.

Odds = risk/(risk + reward)

Let's say you're in the BB vs a BTN opener. He opened to 3bb, and you will 3bet to 10. How often does he need to fold for instant profit?

risk = 9
reward = 3 + 1.5 = 4.5
odds = 9 / 13.5 = 66.6%
If villain folds more than 2/3 of the time, you are simply printing money.

For a 3/4 pot cbet:
risk = 6
reward = 8
odds = 6/14 =~ 42%
If villain folds to cbet > 42%, you are printing money with the cbet.

07-19-2012, 02:46 AM   #4
journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: NO SET --> 3 BET
Posts: 291
Re: Right ranges to exploit villain.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by slowjoe There's a formula for that. Odds = risk/(risk + reward) Let's say you're in the BB vs a BTN opener. He opened to 3bb, and you will 3bet to 10. How often does he need to fold for instant profit? risk = 9 reward = 3 + 1.5 = 4.5 odds = 9 / 13.5 = 66.6% If villain folds more than 2/3 of the time, you are simply printing money. For a 3/4 pot cbet: risk = 6 reward = 8 odds = 6/14 =~ 42% If villain folds to cbet > 42%, you are printing money with the cbet.
Inspiring man Really appreciate!

Thanks also to SquirrelUnite, I'm wondering how to apply what you mentioned, ie put your EV = 0 when called after a 3bet.

07-19-2012, 03:27 AM   #5
veteran

Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 2,640
Re: Right ranges to exploit villain.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ceorge Inspiring man Really appreciate! Thanks also to SquirrelUnite, I'm wondering how to apply what you mentioned, ie put your EV = 0 when called after a 3bet.
Actually, I misspoke. You set EV to the negative of the amount you 3bet. Basically you assume you never win the pot when you're called. It's exactly what slowjoe did.

But the idea is to estimate the value of your play by listing the possible outcomes and multiplying it by their respective frequencies. If you know how to calculate expected value in a non-poker setting the next part should make sense. If you don't there are some videos on youtube that explain it. I recommend Khan Academy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j__Kredt7vY

The expected value of your bluff is:

EV = foldFrequency*EV(villainFolds) + callFrequency*EV(villainCalls) + raiseFrequency*EV(villainRaises)

The EV of villain folding is whatever that's already in the pot. The EV of him raising is negative whatever we raised (that's the amount we lose). The EV of him calling depends on how the hand plays out but it should be between EV(villainRaises) and EV(villainFolds). The respective frequencies are estimated based on stats and whatever additional information we have.

Slowjoe set EV(villainCalls) = EV(villainRaises) and calculated what foldFrequency gave an EV of more than 0.

 07-19-2012, 03:27 AM #6 grinder   Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 477 Re: Right ranges to exploit villain. A word of advice...don't concern yourself with advanced topics until your ABC game is good enough to beat 50-100NL. Then you can worry about balance, GTO play & detailed analysis of stats. If you learn how to put the finishing touches on constructing a building but your framework is rusty...you will collapse into fps (fancy play syndrome)
07-19-2012, 10:03 AM   #7
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: ithaca
Posts: 5,017
Re: Right ranges to exploit villain.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Ssslipnssslide A word of advice...don't concern yourself with advanced topics until your ABC game is good enough to beat 50-100NL. Then you can worry about balance, GTO play & detailed analysis of stats. If you learn how to put the finishing touches on constructing a building but your framework is rusty...you will collapse into fps (fancy play syndrome)
FWIW, I disagree with this strongly. Being able to identify exploitable opponent tendencies and change your own strategy, sometimes drastically, to take advantage of them is the core of good poker. Focusing on learning some "standard", unchanging, ABC strategy will stunt your growth as a poker player.

07-21-2012, 12:31 PM   #8
old hand

Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Chiang Mai
Posts: 1,382
Re: Right ranges to exploit villain.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by yaqh FWIW, I disagree with this strongly. Being able to identify exploitable opponent tendencies and change your own strategy, sometimes drastically, to take advantage of them is the core of good poker. Focusing on learning some "standard", unchanging, ABC strategy will stunt your growth as a poker player.
If someone hasn't learned a basic, ABC game, they won't be capable of balance in a lot of situations. But this doesn't mean they can't exploit some pretty obvious fishes; just that they themselves will be exploitable for an advanced player in many post flop situations.

I don't think it's a bad idea for a beggining player to learn some advanced theory. But it could be dangerous to try and implement it right away. They could easily mis apply it, lose a bunch of money and confidence and give up on the game or have to start again from scratch. Reinforcing the basic, core concepts until a player has some extended success is a good route imo.

 07-21-2012, 06:21 PM #9 Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: ithaca Posts: 5,017 Re: Right ranges to exploit villain. Yea, certainly there are some fundamentals that players need to learn, but I don't think it's helpful to discourage people from trying to think deeper about things at any point during their poker educations.

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