Quote:
Originally Posted by hmmm16
Now it is reasonable to assume that our UTG and BTN ranges must be reasonably tight by this point. If for simplicity's sake we assume that they are:
UTG 66+, AT+, KJ+,QJ
BTN 99+, A6+ KQ
Does not compute. Given it's a 9-handed tourney table the single raising range of UTG is going to be tighter than that, let alone the calling range vs a call and a 3bet and being out of position. BTN is not going to have A6
+ but rather some low suited aces and then only AQ or maybe AK and depending on the player not even 99+ and KQ. The thing here is that QJ flops reasonably well but only if you have the initiative or are against a pretty wide range where any pair is going to be good. Even if you do somehow get the right odds preflop compared to the amount of times you'd win if all 5 cards are dealt you are never going to "realize your equity" purely based on that. You're going to be forced into making mistakes and top pair can be costly and you might need to bluff a decent amount to make this work and justify the pot odds you're getting. Of course knowing how often you're going to make the best hand by the river is important but let's say you have 56s and somehow get the right odds against their ranges you are almost never making a profit on a call purely based on that. This is the whole reason why a lot of the times 89s is a better hand to play than 22 even though technically 22 has better equity.