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 08-18-2012, 11:16 AM #1 centurion     Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 108 Quick 'probability of calling a shove' question Hi there, Hope some one can help with this theoretical question. If I'm on button with no preceding action, and the two players behind (neither are short) will call a my 10bb short stacked shove with 25% of hands, does that mean that the combined chance of a call (from either player) would be 50%? Thanks in advance.
 08-18-2012, 11:27 AM #2 journeyman   Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Greater Worcester, MA Posts: 303 Re: Quick 'probability of calling a shove' question Not exactly. If you assume independence, it's 1 - .75^2 which is about 44%
 08-18-2012, 03:57 PM #3 Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: ithaca Posts: 5,019 Re: Quick 'probability of calling a shove' question
 08-18-2012, 04:22 PM #4 centurion     Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 108 Re: Quick 'probability of calling a shove' question Many thanks guys
 08-18-2012, 05:17 PM #5 journeyman   Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Greater Worcester, MA Posts: 303 Re: Quick 'probability of calling a shove' question Ultimately, I think we should care about the times SB calls and BB calls. If we assume SB is calling with 25% of hands, and BB will call with 25% if SB folds, there will be some smaller range, say top 10%, with which BB will call even if SB calls. In this case, our equity when called is much worse than it was if we assume one caller with a top 25% range. Which is why I think that just adding up the percent of their calling ranges is an OK approximation.

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