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Old 08-18-2012, 11:16 AM   #1
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Quick 'probability of calling a shove' question

Hi there,

Hope some one can help with this theoretical question. If I'm on button with no preceding action, and the two players behind (neither are short) will call a my 10bb short stacked shove with 25% of hands, does that mean that the combined chance of a call (from either player) would be 50%?

Thanks in advance.
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Old 08-18-2012, 11:27 AM   #2
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Re: Quick 'probability of calling a shove' question

Not exactly.

If you assume independence, it's 1 - .75^2 which is about 44%
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Old 08-18-2012, 03:57 PM   #3
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Re: Quick 'probability of calling a shove' question

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15...-math-1166850/
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Old 08-18-2012, 04:22 PM   #4
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Re: Quick 'probability of calling a shove' question

Many thanks guys
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Old 08-18-2012, 05:17 PM   #5
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Re: Quick 'probability of calling a shove' question

Ultimately, I think we should care about the times SB calls and BB calls. If we assume SB is calling with 25% of hands, and BB will call with 25% if SB folds, there will be some smaller range, say top 10%, with which BB will call even if SB calls. In this case, our equity when called is much worse than it was if we assume one caller with a top 25% range.

Which is why I think that just adding up the percent of their calling ranges is an OK approximation.
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