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propability that over 100 trials something won't happen propability that over 100 trials something won't happen

07-22-2014 , 09:25 AM
does the equation for propability that over 100 trials we won't get dealt any card of clubs or spades goes like this?
100% - 1/2 square(x)
where x is a number of trials?
propability that over 100 trials something won't happen Quote
07-22-2014 , 10:10 AM
For just one card, and assuming we're reshuffling, the odds of not getting a spade or clubs is just 1/2. Its a coinflip. So for 100 trials its just:

1 / 2^100

For two cards (holdem) the problem is a bit more annoying because the card removal effect of the first card makes the second card not 50/50.

1 / ((1/2) * (25/51))^100

I believe...
propability that over 100 trials something won't happen Quote
07-22-2014 , 11:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by guy1932
does the equation for propability that over 100 trials we won't get dealt any card of clubs or spades goes like this?
100% - 1/2 square(x)
where x is a number of trials?
In general if you have N trials and you want to know the probability of something that occurs with probability P (independently in each trial) occurring in exactly X of the trials the formula is

(N choose X) * P^X*(1-P)^(N-X)

In your case, N is 100 and X is 0 and P is (depending on whether you mean out of 2 cards or 1) either 1/2 or 25/102 as McNasty said (and of course his calculation is exactly right).

In general all this type of stuff is part of the binomial distribution which is worth reading about briefly: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution
propability that over 100 trials something won't happen Quote
07-23-2014 , 09:06 AM
thanks for the reply. I'll keep that in mind
propability that over 100 trials something won't happen Quote

      
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