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Profitable Situations to Flat with AK? Profitable Situations to Flat with AK?

06-30-2017 , 09:55 PM
So I’ve been doing quite a bit of work off the table assessing the equity of hands like AK, and in my digestion I’ve come across a few pretty general theory questions that will likely take somebody much better at poker than me to answer correctly and with relative certainty.
Essentially I’ve been spending my time trying to optimize a strategy in which I can be as aggressive with AK as possible without being exploitable. That means looking at board textures and opponent hand ranges and figuring out the optimal pre-flop strategy as well as the 3-betting strategy, double barreling, etc.

In general I’m going to be 3-betting with AK roughly 90-95% of the time I’m given the opportunity to do so, as I don’t think that flatting in the majority of cases will be as outright profitable. If anybody has any scenarios in which flatting an open with AK is more profitable than a 3-bet long term, I’m all ears. The select cases (The 5-10% of the time) that I will be flatting AK will be occasions in which a relatively strong player opens UTG/+1 and it folds to me in either the SB or the BB. I will be doing this with less frequency in the SB obviously. I think having some calls with AK here is a great way to balance my BB completion range and I’m given the convenience of not having to isolate. I can also consider flatting when I’m on the button if I have compelling evidence that suggests that the SB and BB are very passive post flop and given that they decide to defend (usually getting a price of 3/1 to call) they’re going to be very straightforward to play against afterwards. Even then, I’m not entirely in love with that idea, as I simply think isolating will almost always be more profitable long term.

My major questions concern the concept of 3-betting AK for value. So I know that in order for the 3-bet to be classified as “for value” I have to be ahead of villains continuing range when I 3-bet. This means they need to continue with at least a range as wide as 77+/KQ+/AJ.

The questions are:

1.) If I have AKo and I’m UTG+2, facing an open-raise from Villain UTG/+1 but I know that Villain will only continue vs. my 3-bet with something like TT+/AQ+/KQ is 3-betting still the most profitable play? Is the concept of “Isolation” more valuable than playing perfectly against Villain’s range?

2.) Is there any argument for folding AK against an UTG open raise when we know that they’re playing super tight-aggressive from here (something like VPIP:7 or less) and we know that the players in late position are going to be tough to isolate?

3.) Are we 3-betting AK at a table with a majority of unknowns 100% of the time?

Predictions/My Thoughts:
To question 1, I’m guessing that flatting with AK when we’re UTG+1/UTG+2 is probably not going to be very appealing - but I’m still curious.

To question 2, it’s hard for me to make any reasonable argument for letting go of AK pre to anybody in any position when all I’m facing is a standard open.
Profitable Situations to Flat with AK? Quote
07-01-2017 , 07:33 PM
Assuming 6-max, usually 3-bet AK in every situation, but you could occasionally call in MP or in the blinds, like you mentioned.
I wouldn't get too hung up on the terms "value-bet" and "bluff" pre-flop. AK is a good example of a hand that gets its EV in a multitude of ways. e.g. You 3-bet AK on the BTN vs CO, and he calls with AQs (so you get value), folds 22 (so you bluffed), and folds J9s (so you protected your equity from a worse hand).
There are a variety of spots where - depending on villain's range - AK can be a 3b/5b/stack off, a 3b/call, or a 3b/fold.
Profitable Situations to Flat with AK? Quote
07-02-2017 , 11:58 AM
Just yesterday I was playing a tourney and I flatted AKo in MP vs a very tight players utg 7 handed 4x open raise with a bunch behind. I thought it was clearly correct. He had TT and we checked it down the whole way on the Q high flop and dry runout.
Profitable Situations to Flat with AK? Quote
07-02-2017 , 01:51 PM
If you "know" he will call, and its a tourney and you want to see a flop, I could see a call so long as you do not expect any other stragglers behind, and are willing to shove to any other raisers.
I would play like Arty suggests, however, for the purpose of isolation as you mentioned.


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Profitable Situations to Flat with AK? Quote
07-02-2017 , 04:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
Assuming 6-max, usually 3-bet AK in every situation, but you could occasionally call in MP or in the blinds, like you mentioned.
I wouldn't get too hung up on the terms "value-bet" and "bluff" pre-flop. AK is a good example of a hand that gets its EV in a multitude of ways. e.g. You 3-bet AK on the BTN vs CO, and he calls with AQs (so you get value), folds 22 (so you bluffed), and folds J9s (so you protected your equity from a worse hand).
There are a variety of spots where - depending on villain's range - AK can be a 3b/5b/stack off, a 3b/call, or a 3b/fold.


This clicked w me, that all makes a lot of sense. So let me apply the same situation where I'm facing an open from the UTG player, and he gets called by the CO and I'm in the SB with AK. Is there still very little case for folding? What considerations should be going through my head?
Probably my biggest concern here is being confused on the line that I take post flop. Calling seems makes the most sense to me in that spot, that way I basically give myself an opportunity to realize AK's equity as cheaply as possible OOP, against a tight player, in a multiway pot.


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Profitable Situations to Flat with AK? Quote
07-02-2017 , 04:42 PM
Follow up question: What lines should I be taking Post-flop with AK? Obviously I'm always betting on dry/semi-wet boards when a K or an A flops. I'm always betting the boards that I flop the NFD. I'll also C-Bet some dry boards vs players with highs F to Cbet. What else should I be C-betting, am I ever firing again on the turn when I haven't made a pair?


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Profitable Situations to Flat with AK? Quote
07-02-2017 , 04:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by xtiangold
This clicked w me, that all makes a lot of sense. So let me apply the same situation where I'm facing an open from the UTG player, and he gets called by the CO and I'm in the SB with AK. Is there still very little case for folding? What considerations should be going through my head?
Probably my biggest concern here is being confused on the line that I take post flop. Calling seems makes the most sense to me in that spot, that way I basically give myself an opportunity to realize AK's equity as cheaply as possible OOP, against a tight player, in a multiway pot.
That's such a prime spot for a squeeze that tbh I never consider calling with AK, suited or offsuit. I might consider folding if both players are meganits. By raising, you protect your equity much better, because AK will do much better against one player than two, but winning all the dead money without seeing a flop is even better.
It's kind of a disaster for you to call and see a flop if one player has AQ/AJ and the other has JJ-99 or something like that, because you never win much on Kxx, but can get into a lot of trouble whenever there are two Broadways on the flop. It's really hard to realize equity multiway and OOP, so calling in the SB rarely works well with anything but a pair that you're set-mining.

I don't know what the long term EV of AK is (about 3.50bb??) but if you squeeze and pick up 7.5bb without a flop pretty often, that's a huge win. If just one player calls, you usually have decent equity against him. If you get 4-bet, you can call or fold.
Profitable Situations to Flat with AK? Quote
07-02-2017 , 04:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
That's such a prime spot for a squeeze that tbh I never consider calling. I might consider folding if both players are meganits. By raising, you protect your equity much better, because AK will do much better against one player than two, but winning all the dead money without seeing a flop is even better.
It's kind of a disaster for you to call and see a flop if one player has AQ/AJ and the other has JJ-99 or something like that, because you never win much on Kxx, but can get into a lot of trouble whenever there are two Broadways on the flop. It's really hard to realize equity multiway and OOP, so calling in the SB rarely works well with anything but a pair that you're set-mining.

I don't know what the long term EV of AK is (about 3.50bb??) but if you squeeze and pick up 7.5bb without a flop pretty often, that's a huge win. If just one player calls, you usually have decent equity against him. If you get 4-bet, you can call or fold.


Yeah that makes perfect sense to me
Right now it just seems like I'm hemorrhaging money with AK lately, simply because my post flop lines aren't very sound - and when I squeeze playing in the micros, the open raiser will flat my squeeze (even when I make it nice and big, something like 6.5x, 7x) and then the fishy player in the CO will convince himself that he's priced in, and call. And then it's like "Wow, now I'm in a giant multiway pot OOP, this exactly what I didn't want" and I have no idea of how to proceed.


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Profitable Situations to Flat with AK? Quote
07-02-2017 , 05:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by xtiangold
Yeah that makes perfect sense to me
Right now it just seems like I'm hemorrhaging money with AK lately, simply because my post flop lines aren't very sound - and when I squeeze playing in the micros, the open raiser will flat my squeeze (even when I make it nice and big, something like 6.5x, 7x) and then the fishy player in the CO will convince himself that he's priced in, and call. And then it's like "Wow, now I'm in a giant multiway pot OOP, this exactly what I didn't want" and I have no idea of how to proceed.
FWIW, I've been doing a little 5NLz challenge for the last 3 weeks, and I've experienced a similar thing. For the first couple of weeks, everyone was folding to my squeezes, and I was printing money pre-flop with a pretty good redline, but this week I keep getting flatted or backraised. I think it's just variance in action. It can take a long time for AK to establish a long term winrate, because so much depends on what your opponents do against it... and how well you run in flips, of course.
Profitable Situations to Flat with AK? Quote
07-02-2017 , 05:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
FWIW, I've been doing a little 5NLz challenge for the last 3 weeks, and I've experienced a similar thing. For the first couple of weeks, everyone was folding to my squeezes, and I was printing money pre-flop with a pretty good redline, but this week I keep getting flatted or backraised. I think it's just variance in action. It can take a long time for AK to establish a long term winrate, because so much depends on what your opponents do against it... and how well you run in flips, of course.

Thanks for the insight
Profitable Situations to Flat with AK? Quote
07-02-2017 , 05:17 PM
Imo MP and SB are the worst positions for call AK whereas BB and Btn we can consider calling.
We should think how to avoid mw pots with a hand that most often has TPTK postflop for value. BB closing action has no problem I guess call against UTG is even better than 3b. Btn at least has absolute position and only 2 players behind.
Profitable Situations to Flat with AK? Quote

      
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