And another question. Assuming I have A,K pocket I calculated the probability of flopping A or K and converted the probability to odds. Then I calculated the odds directly and the two results do not match. Here is what I did.
Assuming pocket A,K - probability of hitting A,K (or better)

P=6/50+6/49+6/48=0.3675(i.e. 36.75% probability). I converted this then to odds, i.e. (1-0.3675)/0.3675=1.72:1

Straight odds calculation:
Odds=6/44+6/43+6/42=0.419. Odds =1/0.419 = 2.39:1

I thought both calculations should yield the same result. can someone tell me where I went wrong? Help appreciated.

You supposed to hit one set for every seven pairs, according to all the big poker books.

Starting with a pair, there are 50 remaing cards, 2 of which complete the set. If you complete the set, you could also get quads or a full house. With a pair already, you cannot flop a straight or flush.

P(not hitting your pair) = # flops not hitting / # flops
= ways to order 3 of 48 misses / ways to order 3 of 50 cards
= 48*47*46 / (50*49*48)
= 0.882449

P(hitting your pair) = 1 - P(not hitting your pair)
= 1 - 0.882449
= 0.117551

P(quads) = (# ways to pick 2 of 3 flop cards) * P(picked cards hit & rest miss)
= 3 * (# ways 2 cards both hit) * (# ways other card misses) / # flops
= 3 * (2*1) * (48) / (50*49*48)
= 0.002448980

P(exactly trips) = (# ways to pick 1 of 3 flop cards) * P(pick hits & rest miss & different)
= 3 * (# ways pick hits) * (# ways rest miss & different) / # flops
= 3 * (2) * (# first cards) * (# second cards not pairing) / (50*49*48)
= 3 * 2 * (52-4) * (52-8) / (50*49*48)
= 0.1077551

P(boat) = (# ways to pick 1 of 3 flop cards) * P(pick hits & rest miss & match)
= 3 * (# ways pick hits) * (# ways rest miss, but match) / # flops
= 3 * (2) * (# first cards) * (# second card matching first) / (50*49*48)
= 3 * 2 * (48) * (3) / (50*49*48)
= 0.007346939

Note, as above
P(hitting your pair) = P(quads) + P(exactly trips) + P(boat)
= 0.002448980 + 0.1077551 + 0.007346939
= 0.1175510

7.83:1

Sick bump

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpOAus3-iV8

Maths is idiotic.

Just wondering peoples's opinion on this hand blind 200/400. ugt (17700 chips) opens to 1200. The hijack flat calls 1200 (17395 chips) I am on the button with 66 (13426 chips). Getting 3 to 1 on a call but I know my odds are 1 to 9 to flop a set so I fold just wondering if this is correct fold which im pretty sure it is. And if it is what implied odds and price should I need to call? Thanks

A cleaner way to do this problem:

50 choose 3 which is 19600

Then one card is 3 ___ ___ so there's 48 cards left one is a 3 and 2 others also can't be a a 3. There's 48 left as there's 48 cards that aren't a 3 left in the deck. So we can choose this 48 choose 2

However we can do this twice as there is another 3. So that means there is (48*47) / 19600 ways to get a set.

Theres also 48 ways to get quads as you can have 3 3 ____ and there's 48 left.

So the final math is ((48*47)+48)/19600 = 11.7551

Solid bump. But a full six years would have been better.