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Old 04-06-2012, 10:30 PM   #1
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: New Jersey
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Poker Stove (Math Problem)

This should be pretty simple for some of you.

I have 5h2h in the BB in a passive NL 6 max game.
5 of us see the flop after it was limped.

6h7d8c

I lead bet and my opponent snap calls.
With a snap call and no raise I can assume that he has a weak made hand.


The range of hands I put him on using poker stove include
A7s
A7o
A6s
A6o
75s
75o
65s
65o
79s
79o
8Ts
J8s
A8s
A8o
85s
53s

I don't put him on a straight or a hand like JTs as these hands wouldn't snap call the flop, so let's say for arguments sake I know my opponent well.

Now the turn comes a 6h, giving me a flush draw.

I want to be able to eliminate some hands here that I'm sure he will fold if I bet again that I know he called the flop with to see if it's mathematically better that I bet or check and hope he checks or check and fold if he bets.

Lets say that if I bet, I know there is a high chance he folds
A8o
A8s
J8s
T8s
A7s
A7o

but continues with the rest...........

What is my "equity" considering he will drop A7s,A7o 100% of the time and these other hands 80% of the time??
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Old 04-06-2012, 11:55 PM   #2
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Location: Where they don't respect my raises
Posts: 1,664
Re: Poker Stove (Math Problem)

I don't know that I understand the question, but you have problems in the scenario, at least a fouled deck
6h78 flop
6h turn

53s is not a made hand on 678r

beyond that, A% you raise and take $B down now, C% villain flats and you head to the river with D% equity (changing to ??), E% villain raises and Hero?
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