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PLO : How to decide if hand is strong enough to pot/get in PLO : How to decide if hand is strong enough to pot/get in

11-15-2016 , 10:10 AM
Hi
Im fairly new to PLO and dont really have much idea of how strong/weak a hand is in a spot given spr.
I would like to get a sense of the equity needed to stack off given a spr in 3bet pots (but it should be applicable to any spot).

Here is the example
I 3bet AdQhTh9d vilain calls oop.
Flop is Q54csd
140 in the pot 365 left.

I would like to approach these spots as follow :
If Hero pots, he is effectively all-in, so Hero is risking 365 (stack)
If vilain is making hero indifferent between potting and checking back, we are trying to find eq (equity) so that :

ev pot = ev check
fepot + (1-fe)(eq(pot+2stack)-stack) = ev check

Then I play around with the value of ev check (between 25% and 50% of the pot), and I see how much equity is needed vs stacking off range to pot. (I usually find that I need between 30-35% equity vs stacking off range - not many hands have less than this...)

One part I am not sure about is how I should set the value of fe (fold equity). If I give the standard 1-alpha (here would be 365/(365+140) so 72%) I am guessing it is not totally accurate since hero's bluff have so much equity, vilain can probably get away with folding more ?
Any critic, help, comment is appreciated

Thanks !
Ben
PLO : How to decide if hand is strong enough to pot/get in Quote
11-17-2016 , 06:24 PM
I think you should start with less complicated situations and get a feel for those first. Like an example where your opponent has made a committing bet and you are deciding whether folding or getting it in is more profitable.

So in this example, if our opponent potted into us, we would need atleast 41.9% equity to get it in compared to folding. We can factor our fold equity(FE) into the equation pretty easily as well.

If you for instance predict he might be folding 30% to our shove, then we can figure out the breakeven point for equity given that he folds 30% which would obviously start becoming much less than the original 41.9% without FE.

Once you become a lot more familiar with these more simple situations, then you can start trying to decide whether checking IP is more profitable compared to getting it in. This is a far more complex problem because we cant just compare the EV of getting in to 0, we have to actually predict our EV of checking which involves play on future streets
PLO : How to decide if hand is strong enough to pot/get in Quote

      
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