Started on MGM National Harbor thread and admins asked it to move here. I wasnt intrigued before but now im legitimately curious if anyone thinks 4/8 plays as large as 1/3 NL? (i thought it was self evident that it plays considerably smaller)

To give the conversation some guidelines I will use MGM's rules for each game.

-Live
-LHE allows 5 total bets on each street and unlimited HU.
-LHE $40 min unlimited max.
-NLH $100-$500 buyin
-NLH allows only utg straddles.

Providing my relevant stats for MGM 1/3: Standard deviation $359/hr, $773/session.

Someone argued that average pot size at LHE is higher, so if someone has online stats of avg big blind of pot size for LHE vs NLHE for whatever stake, that would be helpful.

Will edit OP if additional rules info is needed.

So I have somewhat limited experience at 4/8 but my best friend plays 4/8 and now 8/16 regularly, and I dont think he has had a single session >$1k absolute value at 4/8. In comparison, recently I had 11/13 sessions >$700 including 5 consecutive >$1k and 3 sessions >$1500

I think the variance at 1/3 is directly caused by the much higher pot sizes. I think 4/8 MAYBE has a higher median pot size (i sort of doubt even that), but the huge pots at 1/3 create for a much bigger game, and much bugger average stacks. Also, to the degree that NLH games have many more hands taken down on the flop, this is counteracted by increasing the number of hands that can be played.

I only have 20 hours at 4/8 but my Standard deviation is $28.65/hr.

I think 1/3 with a $500 max buyin plays a similar size to 8/16, and it would be a more reasonable discussion as to which of those two play bigger.

1/3 NL and its not close. Its arguably even bigger than 8/16. Varies a lot between the types of players at the the games though. Some 1/3 games are limpfests where players won't ever 3bet better than KK+.

I don't understand the point. Are we interested in swings? NL surely is more swingy.

But tell that to a FL guy trying to get full value from AA against a wet board texture.

Comparing NL to FL is two different games that require almost non-overlapping skill sets.


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Hmm, an interesting question as far as what constitutes "bigger". The initial argument which brought it up was that I believed MGM shouldnt even spread 4/8 because its so much smaller than their second smallest game (1/3 NL). I think that 4/8 does not bring in the same level of clientele as their other gambling offers.

I guess "bigger" would be defined by the type of means necessary for a typical player to show up and comfortably play the game with any sort of regularity.

But i also think "bigger" as an objective metric could be the average pot size, or the standard deviation.

I think "bigger" is somewhat subjective, although, as the other poster seems to agree I think 4-8 plays considerably smaller almost irrespective of how its defined.

I see. I agree that you can bring 25 BBets to fixed limit and play for a long time. You will need a grand at least to play NL and some days will go home early.


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Generally in mixed games it's a 4x difference, so like if the limit games were 4/8 stakes the NL/PL games would be 1/2. idk if that exactly translates to the swings in the game but it's what I've always used as a guestimate. In terms of 1/3nl vs. 4/8lhe I think it's 1/3nl not close because in addition to the above there's the factor that at the smallest game in the casino you get a lot of calling stations and at 1/3nl everyone exploits that by betting bigger than optimal (aka not uncommon to see limps with an iso to $20-25) whereas that can't happen in limit.

I would say that the bigger game is the one which requires the bigger bankroll, if you are going to keep a separate bankroll and only grow that bankroll through poker. How large of a bankroll you need depends on your win rate and standard deviation.

Some peg the minimum bankroll requirements for NLHE at 20 100bb buyins and for LHE at 300 big bets. For 1/3NL, that would be $6000 and for 4/8 LHE, that would be 2400. Also, the max long-term win rates that people report tend to be around 10bb/hour for NL and 1 big bet/hour at limit, so the best 1/3 players win more than the best 4/8 players.

One suggestion for defining "bigger": for a fixed bankroll for an average player (assume losing vs. the rake) how many hours do you get to play until broke? The game with the lowest # of hours I'd call "bigger."

It's accepted that higher variance (at same "house" edge) == higher probability of going broke given a fixed bankroll, correct? So you either need everyone to post their variance as you've done to get experimental data. OR get some math wonks get on here and prove it out.

Otherwise, you get opinions, of which mine is: easily 4/8 has lower variance

I think probably going by standard deviation is the proper way. I've always used a rule of about 4x, so 4/8 would be similar to 1/2

Good point by someone else. NLH doesnt really scale linearly like LHE does. PFRs at NLH is 8x BB+, at 10/25+ it could be as small as a min raise. But games also get more aggressive postflop in bigger games.


I think the 4x rule of thumb is way too small. Seems like at least 6-8x multiplier based on the other numbers shown. Im guessing your rule of thumb is off

This is obvious something I was surprised by though is someone told me 60/120 was the biggest game in the casino he thought it was bigger than 10/25 with a higher max winrate. I guess it is possible if 10/25 is really tough lineup wise but in general I think it is a bigger game.

1/3 AINEC. 1/3 plays about as big as a 10/20 LHE. And 10/25 NL plays like a 75/150 LHE. Although I would rather play in the 60/120 at MGM than the 10/25 because IMO it's a better game.

That is the more important question, which actual table is easier to beat, versus which one requires less bankroll.
Fixed limit has not received the amount of books and videos that NL has received in the last decade. Part of that is that there was less to "learn" also.

For me, if I can beat a FL table for 2Bbets an hour, after rake and tips, I will play nothing else until that table dies, or I need sleep.


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If you could be it for 2B bets per hour that's a pretty sick win rate from what I understand.

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Should be doable live, with weaker players and live reads. Online this would be about 3 per hundred, also doable when picking the right table at 4/8 stakes.

I guess I should add the caveat that I prefer one good table (when properly bank rolled) versus, say, 4 tables at the next lower limit.

When single tabling against weaker players, you should pick up at least 1 more Bbet per hour versus multi-table.

The reason I single table is that I play poker to get better, learning and reviewing hands, instead of trying to monetize my current level of skill with maximum number of tables.




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3 BB/100 (big bets) is doable online, but translates more to 0.75-1BB/hour live.
So 2BB/hour live is more like 6-8 BB/100 online.

There might be two players in the world that can beat 60/120 or even 40/80 for 2 BB per hour and neither of them live in this country. Beating a 60/120 game for $90 an hour is absolutely crushing it and that equates to only about .75 BB per hour.

You are an accomplished LHE player. If you had to guess, what would be your live winrate at 4/8 if you played it today?

Thank you.


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That was more in line with my understanding but soft 4/8 isn't anywhere near as competitive I would assume.

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I could likely beat a 4/8 full ring LHE game for $6 an hour for 2000 hours after rake and tips, and that is no joke, crushing it. In fact if you can beat any LHE game for .75 BB per hour over that sample size you should move up in limits, b/c otherwise you are likely capping your hourly winrate.

No one beats 4/8 for 2 BB per hour over a large sample size, the rake is too great of a factor. Over $175 is raked off of the table an hour, that 22 BB is the casino's money forever. The players never see that money again.

In LHE you have to keep moving up until your winrate subsides, then you find out what limit is most profitable. For some it may be 10/20, for others it may be 60/120. It's not like 2/5 NL where a grinder is usually content and stays at his entire cash career.

Have you played in the 1/3 underground nyc games, i've seen whales with 4k... etc.

I haven't but I believe it. The 1/3 games at the closest casino to me (Rivers in Pittsburgh) have a $300 buyin cap so that doesn't really happen. The last time I played there my table was actually very nitty. Some 1/3 games you can raise to $10 and probably take the pot down, while in some 4/8 you're getting 6-7 players to the flop on average.