I play mostly live cash games, 2/5NL. I don't play as much as I used to, and when I do I feel I'm leaking in this area.

Years ago, I made a lot of money calling overbets. If they were obviously on a flush draw, and the flush hits, and they bet more than the pot, don't they want me to fold now? Wouldn't a poorly disguised powerhouse be betting smaller for value? Call, see bluff, profit. Not a bulletproof rule, but served me well once or twice a session.

It seems when I play now, though, that the vast majority of times when I see > pot sized bets on the river, they flip over the near nuts.

I don't think this is a response just to counter me as I think it's beyond most players in 2/5NL to pick up on obscure habits of mine when they rarely even play against me.

Has anyone else noticed this shift? Is this a shift in response to people learning to call overbets bluffs? Is the underbet bluff viable now?

For as long as I can remember, overbets at nanostakes were heavily weighted towards value, not bluffs. I lost a lot of stacks by calling them. In the micros, it tended to only be confirmed maniacs that would shove as a bluff.

I have no idea what the dynamics of 2/5 live are like, but it probably varies from casino to casino. Some places are apparently full of spewtards, others are patronized by nits.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/32...tting-1421114/

You should read this thread is really good IMO.

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In regards to your initial thread question and the stakes u play @ i will sometimes very rarely over-bet shove AI with the nuts vs. a really fishy player who will think i am bluffing and thus hero-call me and i basically end up scooping up a BI lol.

Check strong hands more often vs opponents that will overbet frequently. Sure you'll miss some value here and there when they also check, but winning 3x pot on the river will do wonders for your winrate imo.

When in doubt, ask yourself "who benefits?" The answer will usually present the solution to your problem.

live cash players are probably overbetting a highly unbalanced range tho

I probably overbet more than most and normally do it in one of three situations:

1. I flop a nutted hand on a wet board v. a thinking player who will put me on a bluff. See this hand for instance, where I shoved over a PFR's c-bet with a made straight on a two flush board. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...89/?highlight=

2. I'm semi-bluffing against a capped range.

3. I have the super nuts (or a very strong hand) against a player that has a nutted hand that is inelastic to sizing. For instance, I have AT on an AAT55 board, and V leads into me. He either has Ax and will call whatever I bet, or he doesn't and is probably folding no matter what.

Depends only on the player. The more advanced the opponent, the more balanced your overbetting has to be.

The less skilled an opponent, the more you can overbet bluff, since their calling ranges are going to be so heavily polarized. For example, if you call down two streets and the obvious draw hits the river and they check to you, overbet will take it down a huge % of the time.

how do you counter this?

Counter what, a balanced overbet?

The link in the third post does a good job of outlining the GTO response. IIRC, it was call down the overbet 1/4 of the time.

In my experience overbets are weighted towards value the majority of the time. Sure certain villains may be capable of overbet bluffing but even those that are their ranges are still weighted heavily towards value. Unless the line is bet check overbet or check check over bet depending on flop texture that's probably the only time it has a higher chance of being a bluff. Game flow is huge too. You could fold to every overbet and I would have a hard time saying you were doing anything wrong.

I wouldn't call it a shift as much as it's players wanting more value. Some might do so because they think their villains have inelastic calling ranges based on the sizing but many may just think f this guy I'm at the top of my range and I saw this on tv, time to get this money.

I play live regularly and across various stake levels. The higher in stakes and skill you go, the less likely the overbet is with quality. If I have the nuts, as an example, and want a caller in a 25/50 game with a pot >$1,500....I will value bet 3/4 pot +/-. I find the opposite with the smaller game though. Far more of those players are willing to call with less than top 3 hands on board.

Online, I find the opposite to be true.