Two Plus Two Poker Forums Odds of AA vs KK on AAK being dealt
 Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read Video Directory TwoPlusTwo.com

 Notices

 Poker Theory General poker theory

 07-31-2012, 09:51 PM #1 adept   Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Spew York City Posts: 956 Odds of AA vs KK on AAK being dealt Not sure if this is the right forum to ask this, but how do I calculate the odds of AA vs KK on a flop of AAK being dealt in a heads-up hand? I saw this ridiculous hand in a ridiculous movie over the weekend, and I want to quantify just how unlikely this is.
 07-31-2012, 10:02 PM #2 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Austin, TX Posts: 14,903 Re: Odds of AA vs KK on AAK being dealt There is more than one answer to this kind of question, because it's not really fully specified. For example, one answer is "how likely is this to happen on the next card dealt" Another might be "What's the chance this would happen at least once if you played X hands" Also the question is how many people at the table - does it have to happen to you and person B or just any 2 people at the table? Another variation might be, does it have to be AA and KK? Isn't AA and QQ about the same thing, or 99 and 66 etc? Something close to this happened at the WSOP a few years ago, Sammy Farha had AT and another guy had TT on a AAT board. First hand of the WSOP, they got it all in.
 07-31-2012, 10:06 PM #3 journeyman     Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: Table 2 Seat 5 Posts: 394 Re: Odds of AA vs KK on AAK being dealt I remember a couple years ago seeing a WSOP broadcast where 77 and 76 got it in on a 766 flop. Dirty. I have no idea what the odds of this are, no matter how you ask it.
 07-31-2012, 10:16 PM #4 adept   Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Spew York City Posts: 956 Re: Odds of AA vs KK on AAK being dealt So in the movie, it was a heads up hand, and it was the first and only hand that the players played. And it was obviously a cooler hand for dramatic purposes. So I guess my question is what are the odds of this specific situation happening in one hand? Here's my attempt at the math, could somebody see if it's correct reasoning? Player A being dealt AA: 4/52 * 3/51 = 1/221 Player B being dealt KK: 4/50 * 3/49 = 6/1225 Flop being AAK: (1/48 * 1/47 * 2/46) * 6 = 1/8648 Is my flop calculation correct? I'm treating each Ace individually whereas there are two remaining Kings, then multiplying by 6 since it doesn't matter what order the flop comes out. If those odds are correct, I'd multiply them together for: 1/221 * 6/1225 * 1/8648 = 1/390,204,967 Does that look right?
 07-31-2012, 10:24 PM #5 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 10,208 Re: Odds of AA vs KK on AAK being dealt Odds of getting AA vs KK dealt HU = 2!*(4/52)*(3/51)*(4/50)*(3/49) Odds of flopping AAK after = 3!*(1/48)*(1/47)*(2/46) 2*(4/52)*(3/51)*(4/50)*(3/49)*6*(1/48)*(1/47)*(2/46) = 3/585307450 So about 1 in 200 million. Juk Last edited by jukofyork; 07-31-2012 at 10:49 PM. Reason: Fixed - see below.
 07-31-2012, 10:29 PM #6 adept   Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Spew York City Posts: 956 Re: Odds of AA vs KK on AAK being dealt Why the 2! for the AA vs KK HU?
07-31-2012, 10:32 PM   #7
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 10,208
Re: Odds of AA vs KK on AAK being dealt

Quote:
 Originally Posted by johnnieYX Why the 2! for the AA vs KK HU?
I just assumed either player could get dealt the AA/KK hand.

Juk

 07-31-2012, 10:32 PM #8 adept   Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Spew York City Posts: 956 Re: Odds of AA vs KK on AAK being dealt Hmm k. Thanks!
07-31-2012, 10:44 PM   #9
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 10,208
Re: Odds of AA vs KK on AAK being dealt

Quote:
 Originally Posted by jukofyork There are two aces to choose from for the first ace and I let either player have the AA/KK hands, but otherwise we agree.
Actually you were correct! I counted the A in both spots then permuted it again

Another way to get the value is: of the 48C3 possible flops only 2 can contain AAK (ie: each using both available As and either K) and 48C3/2 = 17296/2 = 8648

Juk

 07-31-2012, 11:00 PM #10 adept   Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Spew York City Posts: 956 Re: Odds of AA vs KK on AAK being dealt Nice. Thanks!

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is OffTrackbacks are Off Pingbacks are Off Refbacks are Off Forum Rules

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:52 PM.

 Contact Us - Two Plus Two Publishing LLC - Privacy Statement - Top