Quote:
Originally Posted by Hell2Heaven
I would really like to here comment or response from op about Petey's live post, simple agree/disagree mostly....I really enjoyed/learned from the post
Now I pose a scenario that comes up a lot live in my game, villian open raises a ton, almost never limps from UTG to BTN, if I 3bet him with 24ss IP and I know he is never 4betting without the stones and we take a flop of AXX no help to my hand and we cbet and he flats to a broadway turn card and it goes check check and we are almost always folding to a river donk bet....
Have we talked about the then PERCIEVED range that the villian now has on us....and in live poker he will mostly just think "hero was trying to make a move on me preflop"
Is this more reason for us to then pound his open range with the top of our 3bet range in hopes that he 4bets or donk bets in later hands?
At what point are we throwing away money, how many 56ss 3bets before we should stop?
Some of that is totally not cohesive but maybe you get my drift, live player here so not really in tune with HUD aspects
- Can't find the post you're referencing.
And live poker follows the same set of logic; it's just that the situations you are presented are generally very different than online. People too often overlook their 3bet game when playing live poker professionally, which is kind of silly.
I don't have enough information in the situation presented, but what we do know is that villain is opening a very wide range and not 4betting much at all (maybe 1.5% out of the 20+% of his opens, or 3-8% of his opens?)
There's still one very important piece of information we need, and that's how often he folds VS how often he flats the 3bet.
First, think about direct fold equity. If he folds more than 66% of the time, you're making direct profit regardless of any other information. If he folds less, we don't. So...
- We already know that our stackoff range is pretty much KK+.
- Everything that can flat with value against his opening range, but which isn't KK+, is now a part of our "middling equity range".
- Everything that can't flat profitably is air.
Now, just follow-through with the logic...
- If he's 4betting about 5% of the time, is he flatting about 60% of the time when facing a 3bet? It's doubtful, but possible. If he doesn't flat that often, then 3betting ATC is showing a direct profit. If he does flat that often, 3betting ATC does not show a direct profit and you should not 3bet anything that does not have equity against his flatting range.
- If he IS flatting 60% of the time he's faced with a 3bet, that means his flatting range is very weak, and you can net a huge profit by 3betting all the hands in your middling equity range that have equity against his range. If he doesn't flat 60% of the time, you're going to be bluffing with your air, but you're not going to be 3betting a very large portion of your middling equity hands.
So you're talking about two different players right now:
Let's say a 20% open-raise, 2% 4bet, who DOESN'T fold an exploitable amount of the time.
- Answer: Merge.
He's flatting with around 13% of his hands. That's a lot. My pokerstove is freezing, so I can't tell you the exact range...but I can tell you that you can almost certainly 3bet AT+, KJ+ for value.
Now lets say a 20% open-raise, 2% 4bet, and he folds the other 18% of his opening range (that's 90% fold to 3bet%).
- Answer: Polarize, weighted to air
Since he's opening 20% of his hands, you can flat a very wide range of hands profitably. So I'm not going to 3bet stuff like A2s, because I can probably flat it for a profit when I'm in position. I'm 3betting KK+ for value (about 1%, unless I'm mistaken), but since he's folding a whopping 90% of the time, I'm still going to 3bet a total of like 9% of air, raising my 3bet% to 10%.
What's great about that is...I'm probably flatting a range of like 25%, because I have position...AND I'm 3betting another 10%, so I'm playing about 1/3 of my total hands in that spot, and I can easily point to simple math and say "look, this is how I'm making a profit here".
Hope that helps.
It's possible that the first time you 3bet 45s is complete spew. It's also possible that 45s makes an immediate profit in fold equity. The C-Bet is a completely different equation...but I'd say it's almost certainly +EV. That's just EV stacked on top of EV...don't see how anyone can really tell you that's spew. :P However, if the situation keeps happening, remember that none of the logic is static. Maybe:
- He isn't folding as often as you think:
Answer: Merge. You misjudged your fold equity preflop.
- He does fold exploitably, but has way more Ax in his range than you think:
Answer: 3bet, but don't c-Bet.
- He is peeling the flop wider than you thought.
Answer: 3bet, C-Bet, shove the turn.
Hope that helps!