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Need help with analysing simple thing Need help with analysing simple thing

04-29-2017 , 02:30 PM
its probably simple but i just cant get if im right. i wanna do simple x/rshove 20bb deep.this is how i tryed to get it :


(it's example, actual numbers dont matter)
-i win the pot uncontested 60% of the time so thats like +6bb
-when he calls ( 40% ) my hand vs calling range has 25% equity, so i win 25%x pot and lose 75%x pot, there is -14bbs ( example ) when im called

how the f i relate those two to get that final EV of the play ?

i assumed it is like :
(times i get it uncontested) 6bb + (times he calls)40% x -14bbs

or should it be 60% x 6bb + 40% x -14bb

numbers aint good, i just typed whatever but is equation good ?
Need help with analysing simple thing Quote
04-29-2017 , 03:04 PM
ok , i got it , it's the 2nd option
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04-30-2017 , 07:24 AM
I think if you are 20 bb deep the pot needs to be 12 bb when you shove 14 bb into it (6 bb from both players into the pot, and both have effectively 14 bb left?).

With 6 bb in the pot and shoving 14 into it (17 bb effective deepness):

EV = (6 bb * 60 %) + ((34 bb * 25 % - 14 bb) * 40 %) = 1.4 bb

I like to think about it like this: There is a "black box" where one can insert (shove, 14 bb) amount. The box (fold equity+all-in equity) will either (fold percentage, 60 %) give you a reward (current pot = fold equity, 6 bb) or (1 - fold percentage, 40 %) it will swallow your amount (-14 bb). But in the latter case you might get lucky (25 %) and get back your (shove) amount matched (14 bb + call amount 14 bb) plus the fold equity (6 bb). So the latter amount with your number is 14 bb + 14 bb + 6 bb = 34 bb.

Please anyone correct me if I made a mistake?

w.r.t.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...37&postcount=2

EV = (P * FE) + ((TP * E - SA) * (1 - FE))

where:

P = Current Pot Size;
FE = Percentage opponent folds to hero's shove;
TP = Pot Size if opponent calls hero's shove;
E = Hero's equity when opponent calls hero's shove; and
SA = The amount of hero's shove.
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