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 07-27-2012, 11:42 PM #1 centurion   Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 172 Microstakes Street by Street EV Calculations (Based on a sample of 210k hands of 2nl zoom) Preflop (Steal from BTN Data) 51.4% * +\$0.03 = +\$0.0154 48.6% * -\$0.06 = -\$0.02916 = -\$0.01376 Flop (Based on Cbet Success Stat with frequency of 81%) 46.2% * +\$0.13 = +\$0.06006 53.8% * -\$0.08 = -\$0.04304 = +\$0.1702 Turn (Based on Turn Cbet Success Stat with frequency of ~49.5%) 32.3% * +\$0.29 = +\$0.09367 67.7% * -\$0.14 = -\$0.09478 = -\$0.00111 River (Based on River Cbet Success Stat with frequency of 36.1%) 38% * +\$0.57 = +\$0.2166 62% * -\$0.28 = -\$0.1736 = +\$0.043 Sum = +\$0.06108 (Total Net EV for triple barrel ) If this is correct could I do this at the noted frequencies of higher (especially on turn/river) and profit without even looking at my hands? Keep in mind this is zoom, in a large player pool where there are very few people playing 4 tables, and I doubt most of those guys have an HUD or a decent sample or notes on me. Given this data would it matter who the villan is? Not sure if this is the correct place to ask, but what villans do we barrel and which do we not (say nits vs unknowns vs tag/lag vs fish vs station) and on what board textures? And what are optimal numbers for each, (pre/flop/turn/river) or any other useful theory for micro related
 07-28-2012, 12:22 AM #2 Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Vancouver, BC Posts: 5,661 Re: Microstakes Street by Street EV Calculations you've got things way oversimplified here. first of all the success frequencies are not going to be the same on every hand - you have to take into account the board and your opponent's range. if your opponent is calling down on an Axx board with no draws, he's probably not letting go of his Ax on the river. on the other hand on a drawy board he might fold very often to a river bet - either because he missed his draw or he thinks yours got there. second it ignores that you can back into the best hand - in holdem there aren't that many situations where you don't have at least a little equity on the flop. it also ignores alternate lines - maybe you could check behind the flop, then raise a turn bet, pretending like you were slowplaying (or pretending you hit the turn card) on top of all that the way you've done your math isn't even right - you've just added the EV's for each play individually, but you can't do that because the plays don't all happen with the same frequency or even independently. for example when you raise 6 cents pre and get called, you don't lose 6 cents. you lose 6 cents minus the equity of your play on the next street. the simplest possible way would be something like this (i'll use the numbers in cents): EV(river bet) = 4.3 EV(turn bet) = 32.3% * 29 + 67.7% * (-14 + 4.3) = 2.8 EV(flop bet) = 46.2% * 13 + 53.8% * (-8 + 2.8) = 3.2 EV(overall) = 51.4% * 3 + 48.6% * (-6 + 3.2) = 0.18 so the overall EV of the play would be +0.18 cents (or +\$0.0018) of course this still makes tons of unrealistic assumptions - like that you never get raised, or that you never win when called - but the math is correct (i hope )
07-28-2012, 10:23 AM   #3
centurion

Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 172
Re: Microstakes Street by Street EV Calculations

Quote:
 first of all the success frequencies are not going to be the same on every hand - you have to take into account the board and your opponent's range. if your opponent is calling down on an Axx board with no draws, he's probably not letting go of his Ax on the river. on the other hand on a drawy board he might fold very often to a river bet - either because he missed his draw or he thinks yours got there.
Well for my sample of 210k hands, I wasn't brainlessly barreling every board, that is why I added the frequency of my cbets (flop 81%, turn 49.5%, River 36.1%). Another this is this is zoom, the games are much tighter, and people do let go of hands.

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 second it ignores that you can back into the best hand - in holdem there aren't that many situations where you don't have at least a little equity on the flop. it also ignores alternate lines - maybe you could check behind the flop, then raise a turn bet, pretending like you were slowplaying (or pretending you hit the turn card)
Well yea, but I should of specified I just wanted to know the EV when ur barreling with no equity because if that is near 0EV, I just need to worry about betting more for value when I do have a hand say > than the 1/2 psb on the river, and I can print money (well not a lot but still..)

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 on top of all that the way you've done your math isn't even right - you've just added the EV's for each play individually, but you can't do that because the plays don't all happen with the same frequency or even independently. for example when you raise 6 cents pre and get called, you don't lose 6 cents. you lose 6 cents minus the equity of your play on the next street.
oh good point, but wouldn't we factor in the frequencies of those plays (ex flop cbet is 81%) so I am giving up (either a donk bet, or check raise) 19% of the time.

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 EV(river bet) = 4.3 EV(flop bet) = 46.2% * 13 + 53.8% * (-8 + 2.8) = 3.2 EV(overall) = 51.4% * 3 + 48.6% * (-6 + 3.2) = 0.18 so the overall EV of the play would be +0.18 cents (or +\$0.0018)
I am a bit confused, as to why you put equity of previous streets in the spot where we lose? Should previous street equity be put in with the times our cbet is successful? Would this be correct, if not why?

EV(turn bet) = 32.3% * (29 + 4.3) + 67.7% * (-14) = ~ +1.278

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 of course this still makes tons of unrealistic assumptions - like that you never get raised, or that you never win when called - but the math is correct (i hope )
Well even if i get raised, than it doesn't matter, assuming the stat "flop cbet success" assumes if I am ever raised or called, it's not a successful cbet?

Also the thing i ignore is preflop squeeze, flop donk bets/shoves as that might change things but people who donk min bet often have air anyways, those who donk a decent size, often have a draw+ so I can save a cbet there.

 07-28-2012, 02:00 PM #4 veteran     Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 2,115 Re: Microstakes Street by Street EV Calculations Serious question for OP. Why not just focus your energy on playing each hand one at a time? Play good poker and the numbers will take care of themselves.
07-28-2012, 04:36 PM   #5
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Vancouver, BC
Posts: 5,661
Re: Microstakes Street by Street EV Calculations

Quote:
 oh good point, but wouldn't we factor in the frequencies of those plays (ex flop cbet is 81%) so I am giving up (either a donk bet, or check raise) 19% of the time.
sure, but this makes the math more complicated. my example was just to show the calculation for the most basic situation.

Quote:
 I am a bit confused, as to why you put equity of previous streets in the spot where we lose? Should previous street equity be put in with the times our cbet is successful? Would this be correct, if not why? EV(turn bet) = 32.3% * (29 + 4.3) + 67.7% * (-14) = ~ +1.278
because if your cbet is successful, you win the pot and there is no future street. the future street only happens when villain calls you (i.e. cbet is unsuccessful)

like i said, to simplify the math i assumed you never get raised. against very bad players like you see at 2NL this can sometimes be pretty close to true.

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 Well even if i get raised, than it doesn't matter, assuming the stat "flop cbet success" assumes if I am ever raised or called, it's not a successful cbet?
yeah, but there is a big difference between getting raised or called. when you get raised the hand is over, when you get called you have the opportunity to barrel again.

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 Also the thing i ignore is preflop squeeze, flop donk bets/shoves as that might change things but people who donk min bet often have air anyways, those who donk a decent size, often have a draw+ so I can save a cbet there.
yeah. again, if you want to take these things into account you make the math much more complicated.

since you have access to a pretty big database, one thing you could try is using the filters to view only hands with specific situations (e.g. you raise pre, get called, then bet the flop). then see what your average EV in those situations is, and if you could be making some adjustments to improve that EV. this would probably be more practical than trying to actually calculate your EV for those spots.

however, IMO, what you really should do is go into the uNL forum and post some sample hand histories for 3-barreling situations. get some ideas of what other players think about in those spots.

07-28-2012, 11:37 PM   #6
centurion

Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 172
Re: Microstakes Street by Street EV Calculations

Quote:
 Originally Posted by LazyAce Serious question for OP. Why not just focus your energy on playing each hand one at a time? Play good poker and the numbers will take care of themselves.
I agree it's just numbers seem to calm me down, (tilt wise) simply because I have something to support my plays beyond faith. That way I can focus more on the math side during sessions, and not get personally involved. So just some simple calculations etc, even only individual streets would and are helpful.

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 because if your cbet is successful, you win the pot and there is no future street. the future street only happens when villain calls you (i.e. cbet is unsuccessful)
oh yea!

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 yeah, but there is a big difference between getting raised or called. when you get raised the hand is over, when you get called you have the opportunity to barrel again.
true

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 since you have access to a pretty big database, one thing you could try is using the filters to view only hands with specific situations (e.g. you raise pre, get called, then bet the flop). then see what your average EV in those situations is, and if you could be making some adjustments to improve that EV. this would probably be more practical than trying to actually calculate your EV for those spots.
yea I still have 3 days left on hm2, but I mainly use pt3 since i bought that first. I may buy hm2, since I like the reports/leakbuster etc.

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 however, IMO, what you really should do is go into the uNL forum and post some sample hand histories for 3-barreling situations. get some ideas of what other players think about in those spots.
Yea, thats true. thanks!

 07-28-2012, 11:50 PM #7 journeyman   Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 291 Re: Microstakes Street by Street EV Calculations What you can glean from this, is that c-betting a wide range, and checking back the turn will be a good line in alot of spots. Turn calling range gets kinda sticky, and likely includes alot of draws, so value betting kindy thinly on the turn, barreling typically only when you improve your hand (bdfd, bdsd,) or picking up a pair that has good equity vs their turn calling range. You should stove some of turn barreling situations so you can figure out how thinly you should be value betting. Lastly on the river, they are more foldy. Think about what their turn calling range looks like, then river calling range on a brick. You can't get value from missed draws on the river~ paying too much for draws is a big leak of many micro players and is really evident by those stats. There's also some good evidence they play too loose preflop. Something said a million times but this is putting it into meaningful context~ gj with your c-bet success review, the ev calculations don't really work like that though.
07-29-2012, 01:20 AM   #8
centurion

Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 172
Re: Microstakes Street by Street EV Calculations

Quote:
 What you can glean from this, is that c-betting a wide range, and checking back the turn will be a good line in alot of spots. Turn calling range gets kinda sticky, and likely includes alot of draws, so value betting kindy thinly on the turn, barreling typically only when you improve your hand (bdfd, bdsd,) or picking up a pair that has good equity vs their turn calling range. You should stove some of turn barreling situations so you can figure out how thinly you should be value betting.
Yea I just noticed two spots I am bleeding money after looking at HM2. When I cbet with a half pot bet, they fold flop 43.4%, turn 20% and river is around 28%

Which makes the turn cbet -ev, since they just don't fold enough. The river they fold 28% (because i was trying 1/2 pot bets which seem to not work as much as i hoped). Which sort of makes me want to just raise pre, cbet flop and only continue with some sort of equity + the small fold equity .

Quote:
 Lastly on the river, they are more foldy. Think about what their turn calling range looks like, then river calling range on a brick. You can't get value from missed draws on the river~ paying too much for draws is a big leak of many micro players and is really evident by those stats.
I barrel a lot of missed turn draws, very thin, and it's worked well.

Quote:
 There's also some good evidence they play too loose preflop. Something said a million times but this is putting it into meaningful context~ gj with your c-bet success review, the ev calculations don't really work like that though.
Yea, micro players are way to lose, thats why I like knowing the numbers to know exactly where I should go nuts and where I should not. Like 3 bet pots are super good, as they fold to flop cbet in 3bet pots > 50% of the time which makes it +ev rite there, plus they fold a lot to 3 bets. I need to get to 7-9% 3 bet to exploit this for sure

I want to just focus on individual streets for ev calculations to keep things simple from now on. And just adjust to make the individual bets as +ev as I can.

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