I'm trying to work on ranges to 3bet the villains, but I'm in a tough situation that I don't know where I'm making a mistake.
I know that in river spots where the bettor has a polarized range and the caller only has a range of bluff catchers you can use gto frequencies, if you can't exploit or don't know villain's tendecies. I'm trying to use the formula : alfa = s/(s+1) or alfa = risking / (risking + gain) in a preflop spots (I don't know if I can but I think so) to know ranges. (Ok this concept of gto is probably wrong I read now that it isn't gto.)
Example: Blinds are 150/300 and 150 antes on the table. A villain with 7271 chips open from HJ a raise of 624 chips. The hero has 3492 chips in his hand and 300 on the table because he is on BB.
POT IS : 624 + 300 + 150 + 150 = 1224
The hero decided to shove 3492 chips so : alfa = 3492/(1224+3492) = 0,74
so the villain calls 1-0,74 of the time = 26% for me don't make autoprofit.
This villain is oppening 14 % of hands from HJ I chose: 55+, A7s+, KTs+, QJs, A9o+, KJo+. IF he calls only 26% of the time I put him nearly calling with : 99+,AK (3,92%). But when I put it on icmizer, chip ev. The answer is shove any2 cards will be profitable, I know it seems obvious because he will call too nity but what is the mistake on the calculation, Why is it not applicable ?