Hey guys
Im doing some work on ranges and im a bit stuck

im trying to work out how often in a full ring game the opening action is folded round to a certain position on the table based on the players in the games opening range.

so for instance im on the button, how often would the opening action be folded round to me if (purely to see the math of it) every player before me opened a 20% range?

formulas would be helpful
thanks

i think the easiest way to do this is to think about the chance that everyone in front of you folds (something like 0.8*0.8*0.8*...*0.8) and take 1 minus that.

wouldnt that just be the same as .2*.2*.2....?

nah

man stats was always my weak point lol cheers

btw why 1 minus?

yea, there's no 1 minus, i was thinking about finding the chance someone opens in front of you which is, ofc, 1 minus the chance that nobody opens in front of you.

There is one wrinkle. If 5 players folded when each had a 20% fold probability, does that fold probability still hold for player 6? I would think it probably is somewhat less as the cutoff may see an increased chance for a successful steal especially if the remaining players are viewed as being tight.

yeah i just wanted to know the formula statman. the 20% was just for an easy example. when doing my calcs the ranges will open more for my mock villains when the pot isnt opened before them. but thanks

This seems fine but somewhat naïve to me; if you wanted to get a more accurate estimate wouldn't you be better off looking at conditional probabilities? For example, once the first 5 players fold the probability that player 6 has a top 20% hand isn't 20% any longer, it's somewhat higher because you know the first 5 weren't holding any top 20 hands. Computationally I doubt it will make a large difference, but it's still a difference