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WHAT ARE THE ODDS?!?!?!?!

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12-04-2009 , 04:19 PM

snap_call

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 41

Question for the mathematicians out there:

I recently saw Antonius in a showdown playing PLO where he was big favourite to win. The other guy was a 27% dog! They decide to run the turn and river 4 times and the underdog took down all 4!!!! OMG.

What are the odds of this happening?

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12-04-2009 , 04:46 PM

nar160

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 367

Roughly .27^4 ~ .00531.. or .5%. I say roughly because the odds in the latter runs are affected by the cards flipped in the earlier runs.

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12-04-2009 , 06:16 PM

Pokerpingu

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 1,629

Quote:

Originally Posted by nar160

Roughly .27^4 ~ .00531.. or .5%. I say roughly because the odds in the latter runs are affected by the cards flipped in the earlier runs.

so in fact its even less then .5%

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12-04-2009 , 06:20 PM

meow_meow

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,166

Robl runs good.

I actually think the hand in question is the reason he gets no respect around here.

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12-04-2009 , 07:11 PM

Stryd0r

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 1,723

I'm pretty sure Robl used up almost all of his outs in order to win all 4 all-ins. Pretty sick.

It's pretty hard to calculate exactly how likely it is with all the redraws in PLO though, as opposed to some situation where someone was all-in and had 6 pure outs and had to run it four times.

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12-05-2009 , 02:42 AM

CalamityMarcus

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 583

hard question

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