I read a small extract that stated Mason Malmuth had an explanation on how often to expect to have a losing night playing poker. Now I am well aware that there are a multitude of variables that can constitute towards a winning or losing night. So to quantify these unknowns and result in some kind of prediction must be a huge feat. So has anybody read Mason's explanation?

Mason's the George Will of Poker.

Great read, I agree with everything he writes, just don't understand a darn thing. It's been 20 years and I'm still struggling with self-weighting strategies.

I don't really see how such a frequency could be calculated, nor do I see how the result would be useful.

If we're talking about cash games, poker is one long session. So the number of 'winning sessions' a player has is entirely arbitrary. In theory, one could have more losing sessions than winning sessions, and still be a winner. So long as the revenue is above the cost, it's profit.

For example:

James:
Day 1: -$200
Day 2: -$80
Day 3: -$50
Day 4: +$380

Total: +$50

James is 1/4 on his 'winning frequency,' yet he's still a winner.

Robert:
Day 1: +$70
Day 2: +$90
Day 3: +$110
Day 4: -$300

Total: -$30

Robert is 3/4 on his 'winning frequency,' yet he's a loser.

Ultimately, I believe we should look at the money, not the number of winning or losing sessions. As long as a player is averaging a profit, he's a winner, and that's all that matters.

agreed, it's all one session anyways. For example I leave early if I'm losing but will grind the long hours if I'm up and the game's good. So you'll see a whole bunch of sessions with small losses and a few big winning sessions.

Most people do the exact opposite, which is obviously atrocious. I know a guy who must win over 90% of the time. But when he loses...lol.

Yup- but how many sessions do you base that on, till you turn into the black?

^ it doesn't matter.

You can have a 75% 'losing frequency' and still be a long term winner. ie. You could have a long term spreadsheet that is composed of mostly short, small losing sessions, sprinkled with a few huge winning sessions, and still be a long term winner.

This is a very good point, and when I look at my spreadsheet for August and bum out that I was once over $2,000 in profit but am now only $700 in profit, I have to still realize "you are still in profit".