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 08-28-2012, 01:08 PM #1 newbie   Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 20 Losing Frequency I read a small extract that stated Mason Malmuth had an explanation on how often to expect to have a losing night playing poker. Now I am well aware that there are a multitude of variables that can constitute towards a winning or losing night. So to quantify these unknowns and result in some kind of prediction must be a huge feat. So has anybody read Mason's explanation?
 08-28-2012, 01:51 PM #2 grinder   Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: Where Churches > Fast Food places. Posts: 692 Re: Losing Frequency Mason's the George Will of Poker. Great read, I agree with everything he writes, just don't understand a darn thing. It's been 20 years and I'm still struggling with self-weighting strategies.
 08-29-2012, 05:19 AM #3 banned   Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: The other side of the world Posts: 1,128 Re: Losing Frequency I don't really see how such a frequency could be calculated, nor do I see how the result would be useful. If we're talking about cash games, poker is one long session. So the number of 'winning sessions' a player has is entirely arbitrary. In theory, one could have more losing sessions than winning sessions, and still be a winner. So long as the revenue is above the cost, it's profit. For example: James: Day 1: -\$200 Day 2: -\$80 Day 3: -\$50 Day 4: +\$380 Total: +\$50 James is 1/4 on his 'winning frequency,' yet he's still a winner. Robert: Day 1: +\$70 Day 2: +\$90 Day 3: +\$110 Day 4: -\$300 Total: -\$30 Robert is 3/4 on his 'winning frequency,' yet he's a loser. Ultimately, I believe we should look at the money, not the number of winning or losing sessions. As long as a player is averaging a profit, he's a winner, and that's all that matters.
 08-29-2012, 03:49 PM #4 newbie   Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 42 Re: Losing Frequency agreed, it's all one session anyways. For example I leave early if I'm losing but will grind the long hours if I'm up and the game's good. So you'll see a whole bunch of sessions with small losses and a few big winning sessions.
 08-29-2012, 03:51 PM #5 Yes, you barred     Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 13,114 Most people do the exact opposite, which is obviously atrocious. I know a guy who must win over 90% of the time. But when he loses...lol.
08-30-2012, 09:00 AM   #6
newbie

Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Royal Tunbridge Wells, UK
Posts: 39
Re: Losing Frequency

Quote:
 Originally Posted by wWizardG I don't really see how such a frequency could be calculated, nor do I see how the result would be useful. If we're talking about cash games, poker is one long session. So the number of 'winning sessions' a player has is entirely arbitrary. In theory, one could have more losing sessions than winning sessions, and still be a winner. So long as the revenue is above the cost, it's profit. For example: James: Day 1: -\$200 Day 2: -\$80 Day 3: -\$50 Day 4: +\$380 Total: +\$50 James is 1/4 on his 'winning frequency,' yet he's still a winner. Robert: Day 1: +\$70 Day 2: +\$90 Day 3: +\$110 Day 4: -\$300 Total: -\$30 Robert is 3/4 on his 'winning frequency,' yet he's a loser. Ultimately, I believe we should look at the money, not the number of winning or losing sessions. As long as a player is averaging a profit, he's a winner, and that's all that matters.
Yup- but how many sessions do you base that on, till you turn into the black?

 08-30-2012, 11:35 PM #7 banned   Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: The other side of the world Posts: 1,128 Re: Losing Frequency ^ it doesn't matter. You can have a 75% 'losing frequency' and still be a long term winner. ie. You could have a long term spreadsheet that is composed of mostly short, small losing sessions, sprinkled with a few huge winning sessions, and still be a long term winner.
09-02-2012, 05:44 AM   #8

Join Date: May 2008
Location: SuperValueTown
Posts: 711
Re: Losing Frequency

Quote:
 Originally Posted by wWizardG Ultimately, I believe we should look at the money, not the number of winning or losing sessions. As long as a player is averaging a profit, he's a winner, and that's all that matters.
This is a very good point, and when I look at my spreadsheet for August and bum out that I was once over \$2,000 in profit but am now only \$700 in profit, I have to still realize "you are still in profit".

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