I like to use graphic illustrations to make poker points stick in the mind.

I see this situation every single time I grind a session and it came up in LLSNL

Introducing the DGIHARRIS Sloppy Seconds Theorem

DGIHARRIS SLOPPY SECONDS THEOREM Whenever you are in a multiway (6+ players) pot that checks through all the way to the river, do not Hero call any decent sized river bets or overbets unless you are near nutted. Avoid sloppy seconds!!!!

Whenever you have a 6+ way multiway pot that checks through to river, there are 12 - 18 cards in play and out of all those hands, one of them should converge to a decent hand by the river card. This will be confirmed by a decent sized bet on the river (1/2 pot or more). Hero calling this bet is akin to being the last guy in a train... so avoid sloppy seconds at all cost. Don't be "that guy", just fold

what do you guys think???

Yea or Nay

always a fold.

probably a mystery 2 pair type hand got there.

It depends on a lot of factors. Not always an incorrect call. Pretty much always correct to fold to an out of position bet though.

If I am playing in a game that regularly sees 6 players to a flop, I will not need any theorems to rake money in hand over fist.

I mean, I think you're right, I turbo fold one pair here pretty much all the time, but I haven't seen a table this good since the last time I played live.

Indeed.

In the Poker Theory forum a poster complained about losing 6 of 7 AA hands. To provide a bound on the probability of this happening I showed this result was not that unlikely under the assumption that hero with AA and 5 opponents with random hands went to showdown.

I was LOL’d by the very knowledgeable moderator for my assumption about 6 at showdown and now in this thread another very knowledgeable moderator makes the same assumption in developing his theorem. Apparently DGI sees this happening enough to develop a theorem for it .

FWIW,

my fledgling theorem is specifically talking about Hero Calling in these spots with weaksauce hands relative to the board which is a little different than having AA...

I think this is pretty common sense , the more players to the flop, with or without weak limped ranges, the more random 2P + sets + straights etc + less bluffs into multiple people.

With 77, I feel I have a decent shot at showdown with no bets but I'm not calling except vs some specific types of bad players betting in lp.

While the example board looks dangerous, I actually see a large percentage of family pots check through to the river with hardly any strong hands hitting. I think that this happens much more than most players believe should happen because everyone's holding blockers against each other.

For this reason on some boards (not OPs), I might bet the turn when I'm beating any draw up to small pair combos but I don't believe I have showdown value and think any better hands will fold. I wouldn't do this often however, it's a pretty safe one-off to risk maybe 13 to win 28.

In the theorems that I'm familiar with (Zeebo's, Baluga), they advocate a certain course of action regardless of your hand. But in this Sloppy Seconds Theorem, I'd say it's really hand- and V-dependent.

In example given, I could see someone betting the 5 in which 7s are good. But most likely, I think the sb has a 9.
What if Hero had TT? Would you call then? What about QQ?
It seems in the hand used, any K would have bet, any QT would have bet... so the 6 players are sort of capped at a J. What if hero had JT...?

IMO, using this Theorem as an over-encompassing "rule" would cause you to fold better hands. Therefore, I'm not sure it qualifies.

I think a better Theorem might be that if original raiser checked twice, you could bet pot on turn in position and win with almost any two.

In this case, though, I'm with TIE ^^^... I'd bet my 7s earlier so I don't have to be put to a tough river decision.

Probably should never be betting 77 on this texture 6 way to the flop... no? That's a huge leak.

Some play med pp only for set value.
But with the right image and the right position, betting the turn with 77 on this board could win you the pot.
It's not for everyone. And it doesn't win all the time. But it can be a +EV play, not a leak.

I think I see where you are going with this. Not uncommon for someone to flop a monster and then wait wait wait for somebody to bluff or catch up, and then finally bomb the river hoping for the best.

There are also people who like to chop at a pot with ATC if it looks like no one is interested.

So the difference between the buzzard and the lion is... what? Betting on the river, as opposed to the turn... and the bet size I guess?

Board texture would have something to do with it to, eh? I guess the classic situation would be a paired board with a flush draw, but also a monochrome flop or 3 to a broadway flop might qualify.

Are you bluffing rivers? If so, which? I just cannot see how on a KJ9x board in a pot that is large enough that people will defend it with 2 MP players that are so heavily weighted to broadways, you are profitably betting 77. Like sometimes when I sit at dgi's table and watch him make super thin plays I think, wow this guy is a sicko. But if I saw him bet IP in a 6 way pot with 77 FOR VALUE and then get called by worse (maybe exclusively T8cc/AQcc/T8o?) and check back river to win the pot on like 60% of rivers.... i'd just drop my jaw in disbelief. Because between the amount of slow plays from the MP players that can have, btn/blinds defending Jx/weak Kx/even maybe A9 which you can't differentiate between Jx so you can't barrel it off otr without getting called down too much/someone having QT that views you as aggro enough to bet 77 IP 6 way so they'll x/r turn lmao.. like I just can't see it unless you're betting turn to rip river to fold out AJ and worse.

But then if I saw you make this play at 2/5 live i'd think 1. fancy play syndrome and 2. why are you bluffing ell oh ell live players that are stations.

I get the distinction between playing PPs for set value only & for pair value but playing it for pair value in this spot is just stupid ainec imo.

no, not bluffing rivers - you are correct, that's just moronic.

if I was last to act on the turn, I'd stab at the pot - maybe bet 3/4.
who's to say I don't have QT? I have a very tight image.
If the K or the J has not announced themselves by now, then my pair is probably good. Sure a 9 might call... but would he? (Depends on table dynamics.)

This becomes like one of those "squeeze plays" where the J in early position can't call because he's afraid the raiser has a big K, the raiser can't call because he's afraid we have the nuts and the other players fold because if we're making the Original Raiser fold, we must have a monster.

The only hand that could possibly call would be AX. So what do you know, I've done one of those combo bets that gets better to fold and worse to call?!

As we can see, the sloppy seconds concept is really player, table and board dependent. In the given example, when 77 bets turn - only 2pair or better should call - yet if they have 2pair or better - would they really check it down with a FD potential on the board? It would have to be a 1-1 game with true fish for that to be possible... IMO.

I think you are leveling yourself in regards to what I'm saying. Specifically, you are trying to come up with contrived examples of how you can be awesome on the flop or turn. Fine, be awesome on the flop or turn but realize that is NOT what I'm talking about.

In my OP example, who is doing the betting? It's the Small Blind. The small blind is betting into 5 other villains and he isn't betting lightly, he's blasting the river with a pot sized bet Calling with 77 here is spew.

I see this so often I'm amazed at how thinking players level themselves all the time in these spots, so much so I made this theorem.

Back to what you are saying, yes, there are various circumstances where we can be awesome on the flop or turn, but realize that is not what I'm talking about.

Let me be clear and precise:

Whenever we are in a 6+ multiway pot that checks through on flop and turn and then someone blasts the pot on the river, fold your garbage and don't hero call.

If you want to level yourself about how you are awesome and what you can do on the flop or turn... fine, whatever. But realize that is completely different than what I'm saying.

If you are in a 6-way+ pot and for whatever reason action checks through to the river and someone blasts the pot on the river, don't hero call with weaksauce hands. Unless you like the smell of burning money...