Hello folks :3
after a break ill start again with some CG on zoom nl 10. i followed the recent shift towards GTO/solvers/snowie...so far so good...Now i checked my foldequity preflop when i 3bet. after 50k hands i have around 35% - 40% regardless of position. ill 3bet between 8bb and 11b depends on OR-size and ranges involved; squeezes bigger. nothing fancy.
i also get 4bet 30-50%.
so how would you play against this low fold frequencies? why is everyone doing this?
is it so super +EV so defend that much to 3bets even when OOP?

I think you should 3 bet bigger.

Whats the reason behind this?

Are you saying that vs. your 3bets your opponents, in the aggregate, have: (i) called 10% to 35% of the time, (ii) 4bet 30% to 50% of the time and (iii) folded 35% to 40% of the time?

It is a pretty big range between some of those numbers. Have they called 10% of the time or 35% of the time? Big difference.

And a 4bet percentage of 30% to 50% is crazy high (even at the low end).



Anyway, my 3bet range is elastic and is very dependent on the specific opponent.

If, in a certain position dynamic, a specific opponent opens pre-flop 30% of the time and when facing a 3bet (i) called 15% of the time, (ii) 4bet 50% of the time and (iii) folded 35% of the time, I would probably just about never 3bet him light with a hand that I would fold to a 4bet. But I would 3bet him lighter and 5bet shove lighter than I would other people. Mid pocket pairs become easy 3bet/5bet shoves. AQ. AJ. I haven't done the math, but I'm guessing any A may show a profit assuming normalish sizings and that he isn't calling the 5bet shove too much more often than other people (I may just throw in some smaller suited A's).

50% is a ridiculous 4bet percentage unless his pre-flop raise percentage is super tiny (like less than 5%). And if his pre-flop raise is that super tiny, then don't 3bet him without a top premium.

They fold around 40%. The 60% where they do not fold , they 4bet often (like 40-50%) ; rest are calls. so for every call they do, i also get a 4bet(roughly) . Well , i take care of the different OR-Ranges and i also think that they should not be able to 4bet this crazy, seems like everyone is tilting or something lol.
should i just nit up and 3bet bigger?

and do you guys like to play in games where preflop foldequity is very low ?

I have a tough time believing people are actually 4betting 40% to 50% of the time.

Are these games with generally around 100 big blind stacks?

What is around the normal sizing of raise, 3bet, 4bet?

What is the pre-flop raise percentage?

Do you know in general how they react to 5bets?


Depending on specifics and the answers to the above questions, 3bet/5bet shoving lighter may be quite profitable. And once the opponent's (i) 4bet range, (ii) calling vs. 5bet range and (iii) folding vs. 5bet range are estimated, the math isn't particularly difficult to check whether a hand is a profitable 3bet/5bet shove.

their Preflop ranges for openraise 15 20 25 35 (avg.) ; 2-3bb sizing mostly. 4bets are between 20 and 25bb. well i have not been 5betting alot lately..so well uhm ..i dont know. small 5bets?

Facts:

Opponent's actions:

PFR: 25%
4bet: 50%
Calls 5bet shove with 88+,AQ+. This is looser than I think most people call, but this guy is 4betting so much more than anyone that I assume he must call the 5bet at least somewhat looser. This means he would be calling the 5bet shove 44.64% of the time.

Positions:

Hero is button
Opponent is SB
All other opponents just fold

Sizings:

PFR: 3 big blinds
Hero's 3bet: 11 big blinds
4bet: 24 big blinds
Hero's 5bet: 100 big blinds all-in (opponent has same amount or covers)

Formula:

EV = (25 * 0.5536) + (201x - 99.5) * 0.4464

where

EV = expected value of plan to 3bet/5bet shove
x = equity of hero's hand vs. 88+,AQ+

If we set EV to 0, we find the breakeven equity:

0 = (25 * 0.5536) + (201x - 99.5) * 0.4464

0 = 13.84 + 89.7264x - 44.4168

30.5768 = 89.7264x

.341 = x

Any hand with 34.1% or more equity vs. 88+,AQ+ is a profitable 3bet/5bet shove.


NOTE: The above math (i) does not take into account the times the opponent folds to the 3bet or calls the 3bet (the math including when he folds to the 3bet would be a little longer, and trying to do the math to include when he calls the 3bet would be very difficult since you would have to somehow quantify the remaining post-flop play), but rather the math above just assumes that the opponent 4bets even though it only has him 4betting with 50% of his opening range and (ii) does not take blockers into account. It might still be useful as a concept. And in any event, if you get to the point where you are in fact facing the 4bet, it shows you the equity (with the above assumed facts) needed for your hand to profitably 5bet shove (though if I actually did set out to calculate ti from that point, I would have done it differently).


I did not thoroughly check my work so if anyone sees an error, please point it out.



EDIT:

I kinda thought 3bet/5betting would look better. Assuming everything else stayed the same: (i) as the 25% PFR raise increased or (ii) as opponent's 5bet calling range of 88+,AQ+ decreased, 3bet/5betting should look better.

And I think when you add in the other 50% of opponent folding or calling the 3bet, it looks a decent amount better.

Yes cool ! I also did the EV calc and was wondering if i should add some equity in the end because of rake? like..lets say if the BE-point is 34.3399 i should still take only hands that have 40%? Or do you think that EV is made up postflop when he flats 3bets oop or does something ridiculus?

If they're continuing vs my 3 bets 60% of the time, then I'd 3 bet slightly bigger to exploit that; by 3 betting bigger, the price to continue is worse and implied odds are lessened; their mistake of continuing too often is magnified.

Update: The last (50) 3bets i made had success of around 80% vs all positions.I did not change my range but i changed my sizing as you suggested. I now 3bet 4x-5x their open. first time ever i see them overfolding. they also 4bet alot less often now. but still call once in a while with random hands. A guy called my 3bet with JTo and other guys still like to call dem low or middling PPs(wtf) alot. I know Snowie calls PPs alot but not vs my sizing or am i wrong? Can´t see that being +EV; maybe just misclick; autopilots; tilt or gambooool.

I think that's a fine result that they fold so much; you're giving them a choice between a negative expectation call or an 0ev fold; they're between a rock and a hard place.

In the micros, if you 3-bet some regs a lot, they will start overadapting by 4-betting every hand. Then they start tightening their opening range a lot after you start 5-bet-jamming them.