Well if you wanna make sports analogies then you're ok in my book. If I was to face off vs the great basketballer Michael Jordan without a handicap, then I would be screwed on both sides of the coin: skills and conditioning. Both are a separate functioning part of a good athelete that comprise the optimal strategy. Perhaps I would need to get lucky a few times with the long ball vs MJ if he's giving me the shot. If he's not, then I'm going to be forced to drive and face the master's conditioning which will benefit him immediately, and especially at the end of the game when I'm tired. There will be no tricking the master though as his multiple defensive player of the year awards reveal. If we're to beat him, it will be with speed and drawing fouls. Also, getting dunked on is going to be the focal point of the match. Since I can't contend above the rim, I shouldn't contest; I should conserve my energy levels. All I can do on defense is try to stay between the rim and the master.
What does that have to do with poker? Does conditioning even have a play? How many times has the average poker player said, "I don't need to go to bed yet. I can play a little longer."? I think most, or all of us have done that. Like they say, "nothing good ever happens after 1am with a beer in your hand." we could also say, "winrates decline after we get tired."
I think the analogy ends there.
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In poker, since physical conditioning isn't as important at the beginning of the match, skill is at a premium. There probably infinite strategies within a finite space of skill levels and those skill levels will determine who is coming out as the more profitable poker player in the long run. The winner isn't necessarily going to be the one that makes the highest number of profitable decisions. The winner will be the one that has the highest average return on investment. Since we all make mistakes, this means that a real winrate is going to have loss leaders, even on a very long timeline, simply because we're human.
This is why I disagree with many that would suggest that you should't make ev statements without math to back it up. I think there are many ways to make true ev statements without math. I made this rudimentary graph the other day when I was thinking about human winrates:
Quote:
I like graphs but I don't know how to post one so I'll describe what I'm thinking: the horizontal axis would be preflop tight---------loose preflop play; the vertical axis would be the winrates. Assuming good postflop play, I think the resulting curve, or upside down V, would top out somewhere around 24-28% vpip for a full game. The left and right extremes would feature low winrates, while the center would feature the highest winrates.
So it's not as if you reach a certain perfect vpip% and the winrate plummets if you go any higher. Instead it's a slow drop in winrate as you move away from the center.
A little loose or a little tight isn't that bad, but very loose or very tight can be very bad to the point that winrates go negative.
Maybe someone smart will post a visual image of what I'm thinking.
Here's my try:
......................................^
.................................... /..\
..................................../.....\
.................................. /........\
................................../..........\
.=====================================0ev
............................... /...............\
.............................../.................\
............................../....................\
............................./......................\
0% vpip----------------------|--------------------------------------100% vpip
..................................26%imo
So realistically we can play anywhere in the top section of the upside down V and have a profitable strategy.